WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

20W HAGIBIS 191010 1200 25.3N 139.0E WPAC 130 915

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 10 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 10 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°20' (25.3°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 240 km (130 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 750 km (400 NM)
W 650 km (350 NM)

[1900hurricane]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc19/WPAC/20W.HAGIBIS/ssmi/85h/20191010.0601.f15.85h.20W.HAGIBIS.140kts.904mb.24.4N.139.4E.065pc.jpg


The reaper is lurking

I'm very impressed with how guarded it is from dry air. Look at how much deep blue surrounds the core. That's strong convergence of moist air. Also, looks like it finally decided to go through with eyewall replacement. Easy to see the double eyewall on that pass, and you can see the clearing larger eye on recent IR imagery.

[euro6208]

What a fail in JTWC. Although I don't blame them because of lacking recon. But at least follow other estimates beside dvorak.

Clearly been underestimated for a majority of it's major life.

That barrier block at 140 is very common in the WPAC.

[TyphoonNara]

What a fail in JTWC. Although I don't blame them because of lacking recon. But at least follow other estimates beside dvorak.

Clearly been underestimated for a majority of it's major life.

That barrier block at 140 is very common in the WPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/QiPDuru.gif

I think for the second peak SATCON is significantly overestimating Hagibis' intensity due to an erroneously small RMW. So JTWC's 140 knot is acceptable. However, for the first peak, BOTH JTWC and SATCON is significantly underestimating the storm due to satellite constrains. What a shame there hasn't been recon in the WPac for 30 years.

[mrbagyo]

20W HAGIBIS 191010 1200 25.3N 139.0E WPAC 130 915

Still a Cat 4 supertyphoon

[euro6208]

Looks like impending Hagibis canceled one game so far of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

[Highteeld]

20W HAGIBIS 191010 1800 26.3N 138.6E WPAC 125 929

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A MORE RAGGED 32 NM EYE THAN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN THE PAST
6-12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AROUND THE EYE HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL
TO THE SOUTHWEST, INDICATING WEAKENING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE VISIBLE ON EIR AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 101701Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.5 BY
PGTW AND 6.0 BY RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY DECENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT SSTS (28-29C)REMAIN FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN TY
20W. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) LOOP REVEALS
DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN IN THE OUTER BANDS AND WRAPPING TOWARD
THE CENTER OF TY 20W PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE PREVIOUSLY STATED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HAGIBIS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE EASTERN WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 101127Z ASCAT-B AND WESTERN WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY THE 101152Z ASCAT-A PASSES.
B. STEERED BY THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST, TY HAGIBIS WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
TRACK ALMOST DUE NORTH ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AT TAU 24 AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, MAKING A QUICK
LANDFALL NEAR YOKOSUKA AT ABOUT TAU 42. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE. TY 20W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET BY
TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 60 AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL BE COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSED BY THE JET AND WILL HAVE
GAINED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF ONLY 25 NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS PLACED JUST SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48.//
NNNN

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/3wkUalJ

10th sample.

[Cargill]

Looks like impending Hagibis canceled one game so far of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

Two games have been cancelled (Italy isn't happy), and another game in Yokohama on Sunday is only a maybe. Saturday qualifying for the Japan Formula 1 Race also cancelled.

[1900hurricane]

Kinda getting that Lorenzo look now.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1182513560963825664

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/C4MxVhE

[euro6208]

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1182667671495528448

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING 110936Z GMI IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW, AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A 110735Z OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 107 KNOTS.
TYPHOON 20W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
SUPPORTED BY SUFFICIENTLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C), AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A
SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AROUND THE COMPACT, 10 NM
EYE. TY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TY 20W WILL TRACK POLEWARD AND
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF HONSHU. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
QUICKLY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND AS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE TOKYO AREA,
AROUND TAU 24, BEFORE THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACCELERATES OUT TO SEA TO
THE EAST OF HONSHU. TY 20W WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITION INTO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
DIRECTION AND FORWARD SPEED. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION
HAS OBSCURED THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON EIR AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115 KTS (PGTW) AND
T5.5/102 KTS (RJTD), THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KTS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A TIME-LATE 111117Z SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 108 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SLIGHT WEAKENING
AS IT BEGINS TO BE SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 20W IS
TRANSITING THROUGH A REGION OF MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 20W IS TRACKING POLEWARD STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 20W WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF HONSHU UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. PRIOR TO LANDFALL,
INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE TY 20W TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SHEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
LAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL ALSO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 18,
THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE TOKYO AREA.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES
FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EAST OF HONSHU. BY TAU 36, TY 20W WILL BE A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FORWARD SPEED AND SYSTEM
DIRECTION, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/69mvtdx

[1900hurricane]

Making landfall right about now.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/roeL026