WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#601 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:09 pm

Ring width requirements are probably at or very close to being met for W ~ T 7.0

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#602 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:37 pm

Pretty rare to see a CDO start to cool after the sun rises like Hagibis is doing right now.

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#603 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:56 pm

Sunrise.

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#604 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:04 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 20 NAUTICAL MILE (NM) EYE, PROVIDING
GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION PLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY,
THE EYE IS SHOWING TROCHOIDAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HRS. A 091619Z
AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DISPLAYS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, HOWEVER THE CIMSS M-
PERC PRODUCT IS NOT INDICATING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140
KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A 090835Z SMAP IMAGE
(40 KM RESOLUTION) WITH MAX WIND SPEEDS OF 128 KTS (1-MINUTE
AVERAGE) THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. STY 20W HAS
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW; THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING FURTHER
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE,
THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH
WARM SST (29C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 20W IS
CURRENTLY WOBBLING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER A SHIFT FROM A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT-C AND SMAP DATA--THIS DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN EXPANSIVE GALE WIND FIELD.
B. STY 20W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36
WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. STY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, STY 20W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 12 AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
INTERFERE WITH OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT BUT POOR ALONG-TRACK SPEED AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 36, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER JAPAN, WEAKENING THE STR AND
ALLOWING STY 20W TO BEGIN RECURVING. STY 20W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IN THIS PORTION OF THE
TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, SSTS WILL DROP
BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM SKIRTING HONSHU
WILL DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE, AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE WEST, ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING. STY 20W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 84 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND GAINS STRONG FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT AFTER RECURVATURE OF STY 20W. HOWEVER, AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES THROUGH
TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. BASED ON THE VARIATION
IN MODEL TIMING OF THE RECURVE AND ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#605 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:15 pm

IR trends, 145 kt ATMS, and 149 kt AMSU has me thinking 145 kt for 00Z.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#606 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:41 pm

Strange that Hagibis is moving NNE instead of NW. Was that shown in the forecast tracks?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#607 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:39 pm

140
20W HAGIBIS 191010 0000 23.1N 139.9E WPAC 140 905
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#608 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:57 pm

Reminds me of Manghut a bit before landfall in Luzon last year :darrow:

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#609 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:05 pm

Hayabusa wrote:140
20W HAGIBIS 191010 0000 23.1N 139.9E WPAC 140 905

Revised to 904. Slight change in the position as well.

20W HAGIBIS 191010 0000 23.2N 139.8E WPAC 140 904
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#610 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:07 pm

Pretty slick AMSU pass 8-)

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#611 Postby Highteeld » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:53 pm

Eye would appear to be shrinking:

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#612 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:36 pm

Largest WPac TC since Lan '17.

Month Day Hour V RMW avg r34 avg r50 avg r64 IKE SDP Track IKE
10 4 18 20 40 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
10 5 0 20 35 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
10 5 6 25 30 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
10 5 12 30 30 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
10 5 18 35 25 42 0 0 2.638 0.9 2.638
10 6 0 45 25 90 0 0 15.580 2.2 18.218
10 6 6 50 20 81 0 0 13.683 2.1 31.901
10 6 12 55 20 101 39 0 24.354 2.7 56.256
10 6 18 70 15 108 55 25 31.917 3.0 88.173
10 7 0 100 5 134 70 38 53.881 3.8 142.054
10 7 6 130 5 151 82 45 72.370 4.2 214.424
10 7 12 140 5 201 91 48 115.342 4.9 329.766
10 7 18 140 6 190 109 59 117.217 5.0 446.984
10 8 0 135 5 201 118 64 132.932 5.1 579.915
10 8 6 135 6 209 109 64 136.644 5.2 716.559
10 8 12 135 25 221 109 50 137.168 5.2 853.727
10 8 18 140 15 251 148 80 210.904 5.7 1064.631
10 9 0 140 15 252 149 80 211.639 5.7 1276.269
10 9 6 140 15 259 111 80 197.373 5.7 1473.643
10 9 12 140 15 268 121 84 215.049 5.8 1688.691
10 9 18 140 15 280 120 72 224.606 5.8 1913.297
10 10 0 140 17 278 141 84 248.172 5.9 2161.469
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#613 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:28 pm

I wish JTWC was better with their rOCI estimates. They're not exactly the best in many cases. The 00Z estimate is 325 nm at 1003 mb. That radius is a little above average, but I would expect considerably bigger given the 278 nm r34. In fact, JMA surface analysis suggests it's closer to 600 nm at about 1006 mb. Using that with KZC matches up much better with the r34 estimate.

Image

With JTWC's 325 nm at 1003 mb:

System: 20W HAGIBIS
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax Speed Mean Presssure OCI
(kt) (kt) r34 exp (act)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/10/2019 0Z: 23.2N 139.8E 140, 12, 278, 904 ( 904), 1003


System: 20W HAGIBIS
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax Speed Mean Presssure OCI
(kt) (kt) rOCI exp (act)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/10/2019 0Z: 23.2N 139.8E 140, 12, 325, 912 ( 904), 1003


Using 600 nm at 1006 mb:

System: 20W HAGIBIS
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax Speed Mean Presssure OCI
(kt) (kt) r34 exp (act)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/10/2019 0Z: 23.2N 139.8E 140, 12, 278, 907 ( 904), 1006


System: 20W HAGIBIS
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax Speed Mean Presssure OCI
(kt) (kt) rOCI exp (act)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/10/2019 0Z: 23.2N 139.8E 140, 12, 600, 907 ( 904), 1006
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#614 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:04 am

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A 23 NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, EIR IMAGERY INDICATES TROCHOIDAL
MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HRS. A 092124Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND ALSO INDICATES THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL
HAS ERODED EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140 KTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A 092042Z SMAP IMAGE (40 KM
RESOLUTION) WITH MAX WIND SPEEDS OF 129 KTS (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) THAT
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. STY 20W HAS STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW; THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS SITTING
IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH WARM SST VALUES (28-29C)
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 20W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE SMAP DATA--THIS DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN EXPANSIVE GALE WIND FIELD.
B. STY 20W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THROUGH TAU 36. STY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 24 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, STY 20W WILL BEGIN RECURVING NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD EAST OF HONSHU AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND GAINS STRONG FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER
TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS NOW MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#615 Postby Highteeld » Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:16 am

20W HAGIBIS 191010 0600 24.4N 139.4E WPAC 140 904
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#616 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:49 am

915 mb for 3 days now
TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 10 October 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 10 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N24°55' (24.9°)
E139°10' (139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 750 km (400 NM)
W 650 km (350 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#617 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:58 am

Image


The reaper is lurking
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#618 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:13 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 654 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 20NM EYE.
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, STY 20W HAS RETURNED FROM A MOMENTARY
NORTHWARD TROCHOIDAL JOG, TYPICAL OF VERY INTENSE CYCLONES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT IS NOW VERTICALLY
STACKED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140KTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND
NEAR-CONCENTRIC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
RCTP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
GREATLY ENHANCED BY JET WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALONG TRACK SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGIBIS WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE
STR, THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, MAKING A QUICK
LANDFALL NEAR YOKOSUKA VIA SAGAMI WAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 BEFORE
EXITING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COMMENCE. BY
TAU 48, STY 20W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD CORE LOW
WITH NEAR-HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND A VERY EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#619 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:16 am

Any obs from Iwo To and Chichijima?
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#620 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:21 am

141 kph gust in Chichijima
Lowest pressure - 997.1 mb
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