ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

20W HAGIBIS 191011 0600 28.8N 137.5E WPAC 115 929
93L INVEST 191011 0600 38.4N 68.7W ATL 50 997
95W INVEST 191011 0600 9.2N 163.8E WPAC 15 1010

[wxman57]

Looks like at least a subtropical storm, to me, this morning. Convection increasing around the center.

[EquusStorm]

NHC bumped chances to 60% and noted advisories may begin if trend continues. That happened fast.

[gatorcane]

If this one becomes Melissa and the Cape Verde system becomes Nestor, we have a shot at getting the menacing name of Olga in the Caribbean later this month

[MarioProtVI]

Wow, that happened fast, 92L’s ghost seems to have come back as 93L. Also ATCF revised to 55 kt so if this forms and can somehow transition to tropical, then I wouldn’t rule out a hurricane either. What’s even more surprising is the NAM nailed this yesterday, which normally spins up strong tropical cyclones from mere disorganized troughs, so I gotta give it credit.

[SconnieCane]

Currently has a bit of that "Perfect Storm" (hybrid Nor'easter/TC) look to it.

[EquusStorm]

Area of pretty significant SST anomalies there no doubt helping.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 14, 2019101112, , BEST, 0, 386N, 697W, 55, 995, SS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 110, 1010, 150, 110, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, alC32019 to al142019,

[EquusStorm]

Our streak of 'M' category fives ends, but I don't think anyone in the basin is gonna complain about that lol

[EquusStorm]

Nearly 700 mile gale diameter. Nor'easters are big.

[CrazyC83]

Honestly, I would argue for a fully tropical classification. It has a very unusual structure - a full tropical system embedded in a larger extratropical low from what I can see.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not often one sees a nor'easter become a (sub) tropical cyclone.

[SconnieCane]

Not often one sees a nor'easter become a (sub) tropical cyclone.

1991 Perfect Storm is probably the best-known satellite era case, Sandy kind of did it in reverse as it approached landfall.

EquusStorm mentioned it, but "M" is becoming as notorious as "I" with the likes of Matthew, Maria and Michael joining Marilyn and Mitch from the 1990s.

[Kazmit]

Why are there no TS warnings if parts of the northeast are experiencing those winds right now?

[tolakram]

2019-10-11

12:15 UTC


16:00 UTC

[MarioProtVI]

Honestly, I would argue for a fully tropical classification. It has a very unusual structure - a full tropical system embedded in a larger extratropical low from what I can see.

Given the wind field and subsequent decrease in convection I’m not so sure about calling it fully tropical.

[MarioProtVI]

Why are there no TS warnings if parts of the northeast are experiencing those winds right now?

I think it’s because the storm is subtropical and it’s only a small part of NE experiencing it. Plus, it’s gonna move east and weaken quickly

[CrazyC83]

Not often one sees a nor'easter become a (sub) tropical cyclone.

1991 Perfect Storm is probably the best-known satellite era case, Sandy kind of did it in reverse as it approached landfall.

EquusStorm mentioned it, but "M" is becoming as notorious as "I" with the likes of Matthew, Maria and Michael joining Marilyn and Mitch from the 1990s.

At least Melissa has almost no chance of being retired barring a highly unlikely turn of events.

[CrazyC83]

Why are there no TS warnings if parts of the northeast are experiencing those winds right now?

It's likely for consistency sake. There are already gale and high wind warnings for the coast and changing them to tropical storm warnings while in the middle of the event may result in unnecessary additional alarm and confusion - kind of like Sandy but in reverse (and this was not expected so the proper procedure was already in place). Plus the winds appear limited to the immediate coast. I think the NHC is doing the right thing in this case.

[terstorm1012]

that's unexpected!