WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (Invest 96W)

#21 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:44 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING #1
WTPN31 PGTW 161500
161200Z POSIT: NEAR 17.5N 129.9E
MOVING 285 DEGREES TRUE AT 11 KNOTS
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 8 FEET
16/12Z, WINDS 025 KTS, GUSTS TO 035 KTS
17/00Z, WINDS 030 KTS, GUSTS TO 040 KTS
17/12Z, WINDS 030 KTS, GUSTS TO 040 KTS
18/00Z, WINDS 030 KTS, GUSTS TO 040 KTS
18/12Z, WINDS 025 KTS, GUSTS TO 035 KTS
19/12Z, WINDS 020 KTS, GUSTS TO 030 KTS
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#22 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:54 pm

Up to 30 kt for 00Z.

WP, 21, 2019101700, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1299E, 30, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 315, 5, TWENTY-ON, S, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP212019, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:01 pm

Possibly a TS now actually.

Image

Image

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#24 Postby Tailspin » Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:01 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/2pTppBr

Marginal system, with likely hard times ahead.
1 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:48 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
547 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A
162356Z PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. SET AT 30 KTS, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF TD 21W BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25 KTS FROM PGTW. ADDITIONALLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL SWATHS OF 30 KTS WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. TD 21W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND HIGH (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TD 21W IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS A BREAK BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) TO THE NORTH ALLOWS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF TD 21W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TD 21W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRIOR TO
TURNING WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTH. A NORTHEAST SURGE NEAR LUZON IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS
OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. NEAR LUZON, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TD 21W. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED IN
THE LAST SIX HOURS DESPITE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT OUTLIERS TO THE NORTH (GFS) AND
SOUTH (NAVGEM), PLACING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (21W)

#26 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:25 am

TD
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 17 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 17 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°30' (19.5°)
E129°40' (129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
ManilaTC
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 592
Age: 45
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (21W)

#27 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:06 am

Hayabusa wrote:
TD
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 17 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 17 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°30' (19.5°)
E129°40' (129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)



JMA expecting this to be at Tropical Storm strength in 24 hours.
0 likes   
The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.

WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#28 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:09 am

JTWC now also forecasting a TS, but it may be one already.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#29 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:30 am

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
555 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS A SMALL CIRRUS SHIELD WITH
LIMITED SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 170458Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED SHALLOW
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TOWARD A NOTCH FEATURE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE AMSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T1.5-T2.0 (25-30 KTS) WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TD 21W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK
IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TO TAU 96 AS THE TRACK SPEED IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. BY TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTWARD WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAU 72.
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE, LENDING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 21W SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE
(TAU 96) AS THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE OVERALL. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS SEVERAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE WEAKNESS
IN THE STR AND ALLOW A POLEWARD TURN. EVEN IF THE POLEWARD TURN WERE
TO OCCUR, TD 21W SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND TAU 96 DUE TO HIGH VWS.
BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#30 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:51 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2019 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 19:21:15 N Lon : 128:54:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 998.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.1

Center Temp : -68.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees

****************************************************
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#31 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:25 am

JTWC upgrades to a TS.

21W TWENTYONE 191017 1200 19.4N 129.9E WPAC 35 1006
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#32 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:26 am

Image

Will JMA follow suit?
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#33 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:07 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT ARE
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171221Z BULLSEYE METOP-
B ASCAT PASS PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY. BASED ON THAT ASCAT PASS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RJTD/PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5-T2.0 (25-30
KTS). MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) MAKE
THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TS 21W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE TRACK
FORECAST EXTENDS TO TAU 120 AND A BIFURCATION BEYOND TAU 72 SUGGESTS
A RECURVE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND CAUSE TS
21W TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE STR WILL BUILD BUT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD REMAIN SLOW
UNTIL THAT OCCURS. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SOME INTENSIFICATION, BUT WEAK OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT IT TO A PEAK OF
40 KTS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. NAVGEM SHOWS A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INITIALLY, THEN TURNS IT SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS. THE OTHER MEMBERS DEPICT A SHARP WESTWARD TURN AND
MAINTAIN A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE QUASI-
STATIONARY CURRENT TRACK SPEED, THERE IS LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 21W SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS
VWS INCREASES. DURING THIS PERIOD, A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AS SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS (GFS AND UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND MULTIPLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE) DEPICT TS
21W RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE REST DEPICT A SLOW, GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK. NAVGEM REMAINS AN OUTLIER FROM BOTH GROUPS, SHOWING
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES. WITH SPREAD EXCEEDING
680 NM BY TAU 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (21W)

#34 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:07 pm

21W is looking a little healthier this afternoon, so it might be up to 40 kt.

UPDATE: best track up to 40 kt/1004 mbar
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Tailspin » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:49 pm

Image
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2 ... Y-list.txt
2019OCT17 203000 3.2 998.0 +0.4 49.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -58.77 -54.12 UNIFRM N/A -7.7 19.80 -129.36 FCST HIM-8 26.5
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:32 pm

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Tailspin » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:13 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:31 am

Up to 45 knots and some slight strengthening is possible.

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
180050Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND AN 180048Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THIS INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
180110Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). TS 21W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN TRACK GUIDANCE AS
THERE IS A 320 NM SPREAD BETWEEN TRACK MEMBERS BY TAU 72. UNTIL THIS
POINT IN THE FORECAST, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS LIMITED THE
INTENSIFICATION OF TS 21W. HOWEVER, WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KTS BY TAU 24. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE STR AXIS BY TAU 72 AND BEGIN RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
OVERALL, GLOBAL MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND ECMWF . THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR AND TS 21W ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TS
21W IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR WHICH WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN TS 21W ALONG ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. WITH SPREAD EXCEEDING
730 NM BY TAU 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:58 am

Neoguri is benefiting from its slow movement as this has allowed the storm to stay longer in favorable environment.
UKMET is forecasting quite significant strengthening during the next couple of days.
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 129.6E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 0 19.4N 129.6E 1007 26
1200UTC 18.10.2019 12 20.0N 128.6E 1006 31
0000UTC 19.10.2019 24 20.3N 127.5E 1005 31
1200UTC 19.10.2019 36 20.8N 126.8E 1001 39
0000UTC 20.10.2019 48 21.8N 126.9E 993 50
1200UTC 20.10.2019 60 23.2N 127.8E 988 60
0000UTC 21.10.2019 72 25.0N 128.9E 991 53
1200UTC 21.10.2019 84 27.8N 130.9E 990 50
0000UTC 22.10.2019 96 31.5N 133.8E 988 51
1200UTC 22.10.2019 108 33.9N 137.5E 994 45
0000UTC 23.10.2019 120 36.7N 143.2E 1001 40
1200UTC 23.10.2019 132 36.2N 147.0E 1006 40
0000UTC 24.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:35 am

The latest(00Z) UKMET model run is a major outlier from the rest of the guidance, in that it shows the system passing near/over Mainland Japan still as a tropical storm in 4-5 days time.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests