WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:58 am

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, REVEALING A SMALL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING SHALLOW BANDING TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH UNDER THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 180050Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD AND AN AREA OF 45 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH. WITH LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT THAT IS LIKELY PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. TS 21W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TS 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN GRADUALLY TURNING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS SHOULD PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF VWS AND OUTFLOW NEAR TAU 48. DESPITE THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTING A RECURVE SCENARIO, THE TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL SUGGEST A
WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN A TURN SOUTHWESTWARD IS POSSIBLE. THROUGH TAU
72, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND,
BY TAU 120, BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS VERY LARGE
SPREAD WITH MEMBERS TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM A RECURVE SITUATION
(UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, JGSM, GALWEM, UKMET) TO A WESTWARD TRACK
(ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN). ADDITIONALLY, THE MEMBERS DEPICTING A
RECURVE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE ACTUAL
TRACK WILL DICTATE THE INTENSITY
BUT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, HIGH VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY.
BY TAU 120,
SPREAD EXCEEDS 1400 NM BETWEEN THE MOST EXTREME MEMBERS AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:01 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:37 pm

Best Track up to 50 kt/999 mbar
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:27 pm

This microwave looks interesting.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:15 pm



I’m surprised that it’s trying (and so far succeeding) to form a complete eyewall among the moderate to high shear. There’s a possibility Neoguri could become a Category 1 typhoon if this trend continues; the official JTWC forecast has it peak just short of that intensity at 60 kt.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:52 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 010//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS SHORT RAIN BANDS, EMANATING FROM THE NORTH,
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE EIR LOOP ALSO INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS DEFINITELY BEGUN TO MOVE FROM A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE PINHOLE EYE IN THE 181801Z GMI 37GHZ PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.1 AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE
EYE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE STORM
MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C, HOWEVER THIS IS
TEMPERED BY A COLD DRY SURGE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. OVERALL, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST ALONG TRACK SPEEDS WERE INCREASED.
B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE IN ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR,
AND WILL CREST THE STR AXIS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, IT WILL RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AND GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ENHANCED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PREVAILING WESETRLIES,
WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU TW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT TO THIS TRACK WITH ECMWF THE NOTABLE OUTLIER BRINGING THE
VORTEX MORE WESTWARD AND SLOWER. THERE IN FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE EAST OF
AND SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET ECMWF.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL DEGRADE THE SYSTEM TO 25KTS AS IT TRANSFORMS INTO A COLD-CORE
LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT AND DEVIATE
IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS BEYOND TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Severe Tropical Storm

#47 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:09 pm

Neoguri defied the models what an epic fail :lol:

STS 1920 (Neoguri)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 19 October 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 19 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°05' (21.1°)
E127°55' (127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:21 am

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby NewbieAboutcyclones » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:44 am

WOW.
I won't be surprised if it is peak at Category 2.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:55 am

Typhoon by JTWC, amazing Neoguri, a cat 5 is very very unlikely but defying the models is already amazing

21W NEOGURI 191019 0600 21.6N 127.3E WPAC 65 988
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:09 am

Hayabusa wrote:Typhoon by JTWC, amazing Neoguri, a cat 5 is very very unlikely but defying the models is already amazing

21W NEOGURI 191019 0600 21.6N 127.3E WPAC 65 988


Incredible overachiever. Models didn't even see this one coming!
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:25 am

Some slight strengthening is still possible.

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 012//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED, FORMATIVE 5NM EYE. A 190447Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A 30NM DIAMETER CORE WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), CONSISTENT WITH
THE VISIBLE EYE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES OF
27-28C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND RYUKYU ISLANDS, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 24 (35 KNOTS), WHICH WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, TY 21W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VWS (45-75 KNOTS) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EXTRA-
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL
HONSHU. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A STRONG JET TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER JAPAN AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HONSHU, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A STRONG BAROCLINIC, COLD-CORE LOW AFTER TAU 60.
HOWEVER, EXTREMELY STRONG VWS WILL SHRED THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SYSTEM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THIS EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT TRACKS EAST OF
HONSHU. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:26 am

TPPN10 PGTW 190932

A. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI)

B. 19/0850Z

C. 21.62N

D. 127.23E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO
YIELD A DT OF 4.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:27 am

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:08 am

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:28 am

Why?

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:50 am

Defying the odds...

21W NEOGURI 191019 1200 21.8N 127.3E WPAC 75 980
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#58 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:51 am

Officially a typhoon

TY 1920 (Neoguri)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 19 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 19 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°50' (21.8°)
E127°10' (127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#59 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:49 am

Oh wow...

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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#60 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:56 am

Another pinhole!
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