WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#221 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:11 am

Hopefully the revised best track data takes it up to 140 knots
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#222 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:39 am

Wimpy 5 knots up...

22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#223 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:43 am

euro6208 wrote:Wimpy 5 knots up...

22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939


Dvorak is still at 130 kt...I thought the JTWC followed ADT estimates religiously (like with Hagibis)? It doesn’t make sense that they refuse to give a higher intensity upgrade to a storm that is much easier to analyze than Hagibis and is clearly around 130-140 kt.

Or it could blow up again after its EWRC and become a Cat 5 then.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#224 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:48 am

aspen wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Wimpy 5 knots up...

22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939


Dvorak is still at 130 kt...I thought the JTWC followed ADT estimates religiously (like with Hagibis)? It doesn’t make sense that they refuse to give a higher intensity upgrade to a storm that is much easier to analyze than Hagibis and is clearly around 130-140 kt.

Or it could blow up again after its EWRC and become a Cat 5 then.

This would highly suggest that the JTWC has some internal inconsistency regarding how they rate typhoons... which is probably the case.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#225 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:49 am

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR BUALOI (22W) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10220858
SATCON: MSLP = 927 hPa MSW = 136 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 131.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 128 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 175 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 3.4 knots Source: IR
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#226 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:48 am

Stuck with it.

22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#227 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:23 am

Hope JTWC will call it a supertyphoon in the next update, I think I can settle with just that. :lol: As much as I'd like to see another solid and gorgeous Cat5 in the WPAC, I think Bualoi is running out of time, once it crosses the 20 N latitude, conditions will get brutal.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#228 Postby TorSkk » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:58 pm

Probably peaked at 140 or 145 knots
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#229 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:43 pm

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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#230 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:24 pm



I don’t want to talk against the JTWC (since they’re professionals and I’m not), but were they even trying with this one? There was plenty of evidence supporting Bualoi’s peak intensity and they still underestimated it by 15-20 kt. Yes, they probably underestimated Hagibis by 30-50 kt, but that’s because of its incredibly tiny eye that did not cooperate with satellite estimates. Bualoi did not have the same excuse with its normal-sized +21 C eye.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#231 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:07 pm

The JTWC has kept Bualoi at 125 kt, which now seems too high because the eye has fully filled in.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#232 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:21 pm

aspen wrote:The JTWC has kept Bualoi at 125 kt, which now seems too high because the eye has fully filled in.

Happens every time with the JTWC. They lowball the RI phase, and overshoot during the ERC.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#233 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:51 pm

Judging off its visible and IR appearance, Bualoi has likely weakened to 110-115 kt. Dvorak estimates have dropped to 115-120 kt (T#6.0-#6.2) and will likely continue to do so until the EWRC finishes, if it’s able to.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#234 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#235 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:30 pm

Best track is still overestimated at 120 kt, despite the complete collapse of the eye and the broken eyewall as seen in the microwave imagery above.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#236 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:27 am

Wait, looks like Bualoi completed the EWRC but it might enter another cycle again.
Image
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#237 Postby Tailspin » Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:22 am

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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#238 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:36 pm

Bualoi has failed to recover from its EWRC and has significantly degraded today. It has run out of time to re-strengthen. Hopefully the JTWC upgrades its to a more reasonable 130-140 kt in post-season analysis.
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#239 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:39 pm

Chichijima is getting hammered, 190kph gust was already recorded in the island.

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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon

#240 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:37 pm

It appears Bualoi finished another ERC just before it slammed into Chichijima. Was it the 3rd of 4th ERC?

Image

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