WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

12Z HWRF

https://i.imgur.com/JLcXTzJ.png

That was last night's 12Z run, no HWRF run for 97W since then including 21W but yeah

Today’s 06z HWRF run is quite bullish, calling for a depression or named storm within the next 36-48 hours and a >100 kt typhoon by Sunday.

[Hayabusa]

12Z HWRF

https://i.imgur.com/JLcXTzJ.png

That was last night's 12Z run, no HWRF run for 97W since then including 21W but yeah

Today’s 06z HWRF run is quite bullish, calling for a depression or named storm within the next 36-48 hours and a >100 kt typhoon by Sunday.

There is a 06Z run today? It's not listed on tropicaltidbits, even on the main HWRF site 97W is not listed, and on that site there is actually the latest 06Z run for 21W. Can you give a link where you see that 17/06Z run for 97W?

[euro6208]

12Z HWRF

https://i.imgur.com/JLcXTzJ.png

That was last night's 12Z run, no HWRF run for 97W since then including 21W but yeah

Yeah will be interesting to see the next run.

[mrbagyo]

We'll go back here to see if there's any verification on HWRFs output this far out.

[euro6208]

https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1184831440971714560?s=21

That's actually for TD 21W.

[euro6208]

Center still appears to be south of the huge mass of convection.

[Hayabusa]

12Z HWRF

https://i.imgur.com/JLcXTzJ.png

That was last night's 12Z run, no HWRF run for 97W since then including 21W but yeah

Today’s 06z HWRF run is quite bullish, calling for a depression or named storm within the next 36-48 hours and a >100 kt typhoon by Sunday.

If the HWRF 17/06Z run actually exists for 97W this plot would have been already updated



So I think you're confusing it for the 16/12Z run.

[aspen]

That was last night's 12Z run, no HWRF run for 97W since then including 21W but yeah

Today’s 06z HWRF run is quite bullish, calling for a depression or named storm within the next 36-48 hours and a >100 kt typhoon by Sunday.

If the HWRF 17/06Z run actually exists for 97W this plot would have been already updated

https://i.imgur.com/bmdvI7c.png

So I think you're confusing it for the 16/12Z run.

The model started at 06z 10/17 (Tropical Tidbits —> Forecast Models —> Hurricane —> HWRF —> Invest 97W), so that’s why I probably got confused.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 171544
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 9.3N

D. 164.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 3.5/10 W BANDING FOR A DT=2.5. MET=1.5. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT INCREASE TO 0.5 OVER 6 HRS DURING 1ST 24 HRS
OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[aspen]

18z GFS is mostly unchanged from the 12z run and still shows 97W developing between Saturday and Sunday, with a track potentially reaching the Philippines.

[Tailspin]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
https://imgur.com/fOQTicH
12Z EC much the same as what JMA GSM been showing a re-curving ots storm.




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/aceforecast/
https://imgur.com/hOo3orP

[euro6208]

GFS nudges slightly north and brings it closer to Guam.

12Z



18Z

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS back to being weak, I think the culprit here is Neoguri, GFS can't get a good handle on it

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZOCT2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZOCT2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 171.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 710
NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
180221Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BELOW SPARSE, FLARING CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS,
BROAD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (29-31C) SSTS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT
VARY ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND NAVGEM DEVELOP THE SYSTEM, INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHILE THE ECMWF, UKMO, AND JGSM SHOW AN 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro it's alive again

[Hayabusa]

HWRF run is back

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 180600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 161E NW 10 KT.

[euro6208]

Aiming for the Marianas...

[aspen]

The GFS and NAVGEM take TD 97W on a more southernly path than the Euro and CMC, having it miss the Mariana Islands entirely, while the latter two models curve it into the islands and out to sea. Despite the track disagreement, all four models predict a system of at least weak TS intensity by Sunday or Monday.