WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

[Tailspin]

250mb complex setup System has a poleward outflow channel. Note the trough north and the anti cyclone too
the NW. If the system can open a equatorial outflow as tracks. Likely it will explode. (bombout)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 058,11.739

[euro6208]

Eye is now visible.

[aspen]

Eye is now visible.

That’ll probably get Bualoi to 80-90 kt for the next advisory. It seems to be clearing rather quickly as of now.

[euro6208]

HWRF peak.

[euro6208]

Oh oh...

[aspen]

Eye temps are now positive: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt22W.html

[Hayabusa]

90

22W BUALOI 191021 0000 14.1N 148.2E WPAC 90 971

[aspen]

Bualoi’s eye is pretty deep now. Convection, on the other hand, is not, but will likely flare up again once diurnal max comes around and briefly mess up the eye.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2019 Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 14:08:24 N Lon : 147:56:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 86nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

****************************************************

[Tailspin]

18z ec

https://imgur.com/j5zAdE5

[aspen]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2019 Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 14:08:24 N Lon : 147:56:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 86nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

****************************************************

That is a very warm and clear eye for a storm with a warm CDO. Maybe it’s actually slightly stronger than 90 kt, but we’ll never know without recon.

[euro6208]

18z ec

https://imgur.com/j5zAdE5

If only it was more south making a beeline for Guam.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2019 Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 14:08:24 N Lon : 147:56:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 86nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

****************************************************

That is a very warm and clear eye for a storm with a warm CDO. Maybe it’s actually slightly stronger than 90 kt, but we’ll never know without recon.

Agree. Seen this type of structure many times and recon always lead dvorak.

[euro6208]

Ok...lowered down 5 knots.

22W BUALOI 191021 0000 14.1N 148.2E WPAC 85 974

[euro6208]

That volcanic island of Anatahan must be a magnet. Already experienced a Cat 5 and another on the way in just a month!

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/L7dEOd5


https://imgur.com/i74XR3q

[Tailspin]

looks a cat3 and maybe has slight west wobble too it.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floate ... short.html

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Massive cooling going on convection wise.

[Hayabusa]

TY 1921 (Bualoi)
Issued at 04:10 UTC, 21 October 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 21 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20' (14.3°)
E147°55' (147.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)