ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#661 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:30 pm

Just got back from a 40-mile bike ride. Here's how I would analyze the surface map across the SE U.S. Cold front with a sharp wind shift approaching Apalachicola. Maritime tropical air south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Continental Polar air flowing south off the MS/AL coasts and now the western FL Panhandle. The CP air is highly modified by the time it reaches the frontal boundary.

The NHC sees is: "The overall cloud pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded low pressure system now". Hmm, who would've thought?...

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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#662 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just got back from a 40-mile bike ride. Here's how I would analyze the surface map across the SE U.S. Cold front with a sharp wind shift approaching Apalachicola. Maritime tropical air south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Continental Polar air flowing south off the MS/AL coasts and now the western FL Panhandle. The CP air is highly modified by the time it reaches the frontal boundary.

The NHC sees is: "[url]The overall cloud pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded low pressure system now[/url]". Hmm, who would've thought?...

http://wxman57.com/images/Nestor7.JPG


Wow, 40 miles?!?! Nice ride! It takes me a whole week to do 40 miles broken into 4-5 rides, lol.

No doubt the low pressure center is now fully non tropical as the continental cooler air has now wrapped around into it, but as it made landfall Tyndall AFB reported a temp of 82 degrees with a dewpoint of 81 degrees and a pressure of 1000mb. It still had a shallow tropical charecteristics, dewpoints offshore south of the low pressure are still well into the 70s The cooler continental airmass does not go that far south to cool us off here in the FL Peninsula.

I would had painted that cold front much further north & west, dewpoints in the mid 70s where you have it.

Image
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#663 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:54 pm

NDG wrote:
Wow, 40 miles?!?! Nice ride! It takes me a whole week to do 40 miles broken into 4-5 rides, lol.

No doubt the low pressure center is now fully non tropical as the continental cooler air has now wrapped around into it, but as it made landfall Tyndall AFB reported a temp of 82 degrees with a dewpoint of 81 degrees and a pressure of 1000mb. It still had a shallow tropical characteristics, dewpoints offshore south of the low pressure are still well into the 70s The cooler continental airmass does not go that far south to cool us off here in the FL Peninsula.

I would had painted that cold front much further north & west, dewpoints in the mid 70s where you have it.

https://i.imgur.com/i4NSgHI.gif


Used to race 100 miles in 4 hrs back when I was in my 30s (30 yrs ago). A little slower pace now, but I do like to drop guys on carbon fiber road bikes while riding my dual-suspension mountain bike...

No, not much cool air in Orlando front, but a stronger front will move through Orlando around noon Tuesday. We're there in Orlando Mon-Sat next week. Wednesday is Typhoon Lagoon day (fitting for me). Should be clear with a high 81-83 (a little cool).
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#664 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:
Wow, 40 miles?!?! Nice ride! It takes me a whole week to do 40 miles broken into 4-5 rides, lol.

No doubt the low pressure center is now fully non tropical as the continental cooler air has now wrapped around into it, but as it made landfall Tyndall AFB reported a temp of 82 degrees with a dewpoint of 81 degrees and a pressure of 1000mb. It still had a shallow tropical characteristics, dewpoints offshore south of the low pressure are still well into the 70s The cooler continental airmass does not go that far south to cool us off here in the FL Peninsula.

I would had painted that cold front much further north & west, dewpoints in the mid 70s where you have it.

https://i.imgur.com/i4NSgHI.gif


Used to race 100 miles in 4 hrs back when I was in my 30s (30 yrs ago). A little slower pace now, but I do like to drop guys on carbon fiber road bikes while riding my dual-suspension mountain bike...

No, not much cool air in Orlando front, but a stronger front will move through Orlando around noon Tuesday. We're there in Orlando Mon-Sat next week. Wednesday is Typhoon Lagoon day (fitting for me). Should be clear with a high 81-83 (a little cool).


Wow, 100 miles in 4 hrs, that was amazing, I can only average 15 mph but I have crappy mountain bike and already in my late 40s. I love biking, I can't stand exercising inside 4 walls, it bores me to death. Lol.
Even if it cools down that much here in Orlando on Wednesday is that they usually turn on the water heaters at the parks so it will not feel that cool, back to the mid to the upper 80s for the rest of the week, like you I like it Hot!!!! :lol:
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#665 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:40 pm

Frank2 wrote:Glad I stuck to my first take on this system despite some who thought "the Gulf will do its magic" - 50 Kts of shear does not make a viable system. Its easy to hear the frustraton of the NHC forecaster in the latest discussion. That is why the system was not named initially and should never had been named, because it was never a distinct tropical system. Wishcasting or trigger-finger forecasting only confuses everyone and should never be allowed. The old days of forecasting did not allow this or rarely were errors made. Today thanks to the pressures of social media they are made too frequently. I wonder what my old forecaster coworkers think of so-called Nestor...


This is uncalled for. The NHC did their job. This was headed toward a region still recovering from last year and the best guidance showed it could very well be tropical. This is the same NHC that was criticized for dropping Sandy because they stuck by the book when it was no longer tropical. They do the best they can and do not deserve the silly criticism they get when a forecast doesn't work out.
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#666 Postby TallyTracker » Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:50 pm

NDG wrote:Nestor was no wimp of a tropical storm.

https://twitter.com/AsherWildman13/status/1185572372365090816


That road was just repaired in the last year as well. I’m hoping that Franklin County can get some help from the Feds to fix it or else it could take a while.
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#667 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:00 pm

tolakram wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Glad I stuck to my first take on this system despite some who thought "the Gulf will do its magic" - 50 Kts of shear does not make a viable system. Its easy to hear the frustraton of the NHC forecaster in the latest discussion. That is why the system was not named initially and should never had been named, because it was never a distinct tropical system. Wishcasting or trigger-finger forecasting only confuses everyone and should never be allowed. The old days of forecasting did not allow this or rarely were errors made. Today thanks to the pressures of social media they are made too frequently. I wonder what my old forecaster coworkers think of so-called Nestor...


This is uncalled for. The NHC did their job. This was headed toward a region still recovering from last year and the best guidance showed it could very well be tropical. This is the same NHC that was criticized for dropping Sandy because they stuck by the book when it was no longer tropical. They do the best they can and do not deserve the silly criticism they get when a forecast doesn't work out.

The forecasting enterprise needs to fix this asap though. There are still major potential impacts with hybrid storms or non tropical systems, and yet our nomenclature (subtropical, post tropical) downplays the severity of the situation often. It's a huge communication failure.
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#668 Postby Steve » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:
Wow, 40 miles?!?! Nice ride! It takes me a whole week to do 40 miles broken into 4-5 rides, lol.

No doubt the low pressure center is now fully non tropical as the continental cooler air has now wrapped around into it, but as it made landfall Tyndall AFB reported a temp of 82 degrees with a dewpoint of 81 degrees and a pressure of 1000mb. It still had a shallow tropical characteristics, dewpoints offshore south of the low pressure are still well into the 70s The cooler continental airmass does not go that far south to cool us off here in the FL Peninsula.

I would had painted that cold front much further north & west, dewpoints in the mid 70s where you have it.

https://i.imgur.com/i4NSgHI.gif


Used to race 100 miles in 4 hrs back when I was in my 30s (30 yrs ago). A little slower pace now, but I do like to drop guys on carbon fiber road bikes while riding my dual-suspension mountain bike...

No, not much cool air in Orlando front, but a stronger front will move through Orlando around noon Tuesday. We're there in Orlando Mon-Sat next week. Wednesday is Typhoon Lagoon day (fitting for me). Should be clear with a high 81-83 (a little cool).


We went about 3 weeks ago. Getting the cabana was pretty cool, but there was a bunch of us so it may not make as much sense. It was cool and all, but of the Universal parks, I’ll take Islands of Adventure with a skip the line pass any day. Have fun!!
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#669 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:01 pm

Ended up with noticeable but not damaging impacts from Nestor. Some of those thunderstorms had gusty winds reminiscent of the stronger summer time storms we usually get. Lots of much needed rain too. Despite the tornadoes overall Nestor benefitted this area.
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#670 Postby HDGator » Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:05 am

I will say that I appreciate the Professional Mets that post here with their opinions and insight.
We may be difficult and ornery.
Thank You!
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#671 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:32 am

ImageImage
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#672 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:00 am

The extra tropical remnants will hang out in Melissa land for a couple days before the front comes through, but the upper level winds and moisture look unfavorable.
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#673 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:00 pm

I have a feeling that Nestor elongated low reformed as it was coming ashore. If you look at theses weatherSTEM sites... Two in Panama City.. Ones in Gulf County.... And one in Franklin Co. It appears the lowest pressure occurred in Panama City.

Bay.weatherSTEM.com (FSU and gcsc cameras are pointing wsw and ese respectively... Time lapse available)
Gulf.weatherstem.com
Franklin.weatherstem.com

All met data is available to look at in graphs. Clearly some sort of low came ashore in Bay County with temps in 80's and high dewpoints and the wind swing and changes as seen with web cams.
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#674 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:40 am

I think there was a reforming low as Nestor low came ashore. In the above images, you see the metars at KPAM an KECP in opposite directions.

Here is the WeatherSTEM site at Gulf Coast State College in Panama City, Fl. bay.weatherstem.com/gulfcoast 29.471 in. Hg was lowest pressure at 14:27:45

Image
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