Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche has increased during
the past several hours. This system is forecast to move northward
and then northeastward across the western and central Gulf of
Mexico during the next couple of days and it could become a tropical
or subtropical cyclone during that time. Regardless of development,
the low could produce gusty winds and rough surf when it nears the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. For more information about marine hazards while the
low moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the
National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,
WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche has increased during
the past several hours. This system is forecast to move northward
and then northeastward across the western and central Gulf of
Mexico during the next couple of days and it could become a tropical
or subtropical cyclone during that time. Regardless of development,
the low could produce gusty winds and rough surf when it nears the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. For more information about marine hazards while the
low moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the
National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,
WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
A very well defined center of circulation.on ASCAT most definitely!. Just looking at this and observing that tropical storm wind gusts are already occuring , NHC can easily upgrade this to Nestor right now. The cyclone looks rather good early this morning. 
