ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

FWIW the core of the lightning with the heart of the "blob" is at about the latitude of Lee/Charlotte counties.

I’m wondering if it continues heading generally east or if it suddenly shoots north. Interesting system.

I'd bet on it continuing to develop downshear...yielding an east northeast apparent motion as the naked swirl moves northeastward...with blob landfall somewhere between cedar key and Englewood. Another less sexy possibility is the blob degrades significantly as it encounters less warm shelf waters. something to keep an eye on. Perhaps dmax will help negate that..

[FLpanhandle91]

Nasty cold and wet in Pensacola. All events cancelled tonight

Chilly here in Fort Walton Beach. Never got above 63 today.

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/NickMerianos/status/1185331784852082688

[CrazyC83]

I can take over the Recon if you want.

[cycloneye]

I can take over the Recon if you want.

Ok good.Go ahead.

[ScottNAtlanta]

We really need the rain in GA. Some areas are 15-25 inches below normal. Hopefully we get some good rains out of this.

[psyclone]

SPC has issued a meso discussion re rotating cells off the west coast. No watch for now which seems reasonable give the landophobic nature of the cells thus far.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2072.html

[GCANE]

Could see a significant tornado outbreak across a large area of FL tomorrow

[AnnularCane]

I'm guessing the marginal risk will be upgraded eventually? I'm kind of surprised it hasn't been already.

[ava_ati]

I'm guessing the marginal risk will be upgraded eventually? I'm kind of surprised it hasn't been already.

They explain pretty clear why they haven't in the SPC discussion
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
"While a SLGT risk might ultimately be needed
for a portion of this region in day 1 outlooks, uncertainty
introduced by the likelihood of a weak thermodynamic environment precludes a categorical update at this time."

[GCANE]

6000 CAPE!!!

[gatorcane]

The first of the heavy squalls are moving ashore Pinellas County. Looks like St Pete Beach and SW county getting it first then will rotate up through Clearwater and then up to north county.

[HDGator]

The first of the heavy squalls are moving ashore Pinellas County. Looks like St Pete Beach and SW county getting it first then will rotate up through Clearwater and then up to north county.

There's some pretty good circulation with some of these cells. I won't be surprised at some isolated damage reports.

[wxman57]

Strongest winds are located about 225nm (260 miles) SE of the center in that north-south band of squalls that looks like a frontal boundary. Coastal temps just north of the center are in the low 60s. That's not very tropical. Most impacts in FL should be west of Apalachicola into the Big Bend and down to St. Pete. Should see some TS-force winds and heavy rain later tonight.

[chris_fit]

Strongest winds are located about 225nm (260 miles) SE of the center in that north-south band of squalls that looks like a frontal boundary. Coastal temps just north of the center are in the low 60s. That's not very tropical. Most impacts in FL should be west of Apalachicola into the Big Bend and down to St. Pete. Should see some TS-force winds and heavy rain later tonight.

I think you meant east of Apalachicola

[J_J99]

Recon found 997 MB with 16 kts of wind with a dropsonde at the surface.... 996-995 MB perhaps?

[NDG]

Here are the strong winds, SE of the CoC.

RNT15 KNHC 190031
AF300 0416A NESTOR HDOB 11 20191019
002130 2612N 08624W 8430 01523 0039 +175 +168 239050 050 036 001 00
002200 2612N 08622W 8429 01523 0040 +169 +168 234050 051 039 001 01
002230 2611N 08620W 8443 01505 0038 +169 +168 231051 054 041 002 01
002300 2611N 08619W 8440 01508 0034 +174 +167 228057 059 042 000 00
002330 2610N 08617W 8437 01513 0036 +175 +167 224057 059 042 000 00
002400 2610N 08615W 8432 01520 0036 +176 +167 222059 061 040 001 00
002430 2609N 08613W 8428 01523 0038 +172 +167 214055 057 041 002 00
002500 2608N 08612W 8433 01519 0038 +173 +167 213055 055 041 001 00
002530 2606N 08612W 8433 01517 0039 +171 +167 214055 056 042 001 00
002600 2605N 08611W 8430 01523 0041 +172 +167 214054 055 041 001 03
002630 2604N 08610W 8431 01522 0039 +176 +166 213056 057 041 001 00
002700 2603N 08609W 8439 01513 0041 +172 +166 213055 057 042 001 03
002730 2602N 08607W 8435 01521 0044 +171 +167 212056 058 038 001 00
002800 2602N 08605W 8430 01525 0042 +174 +168 211057 058 038 001 00
002830 2602N 08603W 8430 01525 0042 +175 +168 210056 057 038 000 00
002900 2602N 08601W 8433 01525 0042 +176 +167 210055 057 038 000 00
002930 2602N 08559W 8429 01527 0042 +175 +167 210055 055 038 000 00
003000 2602N 08557W 8436 01523 0046 +172 +166 206053 056 037 000 00
003030 2602N 08555W 8431 01528 0046 +172 +167 208054 055 036 000 00
003100 2603N 08553W 8429 01531 0048 +175 +166 210055 056 036 000 00
$$

[HDGator]

Strongest winds are located about 225nm (260 miles) SE of the center in that north-south band of squalls that looks like a frontal boundary. Coastal temps just north of the center are in the low 60s. That's not very tropical. Most impacts in FL should be west of Apalachicola into the Big Bend and down to St. Pete. Should see some TS-force winds and heavy rain later tonight.

I think you meant east of Apalachicola

I think he means from west of Apalachicola eastward into the Big Bend and southward to St. Pete.
I did the same double-take, but he can clarify.
I agree with his assessment; not that my opinion matters.

[Nimbus]

Over 1000 customers without power near St Pete already..

[aspen]

00z best track at 55 kt/996 mbar