ATL: NESTOR - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#61 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:53 am

Quick reminder - Posts that are not model output or directly related to model output belong in the general discussion thread. Half a dozen posts were just moved over there. As things get busier here over the next 24 hours, additional OT posts are more likely to be deleted instead of moved. Thanks for doing your part to help the mods/admins out. :)
4 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#62 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:03 am

06z HR Euro shifted to the east with landfall, despite being already too far north on its forecasted position for 12z this morning.
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#63 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:27 am

Latest HRRR shows a fairly stormy late afternoon and evening across central FL as the frontal boundary starts lifting northward.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#64 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:44 am

12Z GFS has landfall of CoC between 09Z and 15Z tomorrow morning.at Apalachicola @ 992 mb. A significant shift eastward from the 06Z run.

Image
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NESTOR - Models

#65 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:00 pm

Big shift to the east by the Euro.

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

ATL: NESTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:07 pm

12 euro at 12 hours.. before it does the crazy jump ..

well east first 12 hours then jumps north.

that is 70mph..

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NESTOR - Models

#67 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:37 pm

Indeed the Euro shows Nestor strengthening this evening into a Hurricane before weakening as it gets closer to the coast.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 584
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: NESTOR - Models

#68 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:57 pm

NDG wrote:Indeed the Euro shows Nestor strengthening this evening into a Hurricane before weakening as it gets closer to the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/u9W7S5E.png
https://i.imgur.com/tz4okJT.png
https://i.imgur.com/7ZMRvxi.png


If Nestor manages to become a hurricane, I imagine it will have to be primarily fueled by baroclinic energy. The lack of a good lower level structure will make that much intensification difficult.
1 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: NESTOR - Models

#69 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:48 pm

The Euro is a great model but it was a wee bit off here. This was its forecast for Nestor as of the 12Z last Monday plot, 120 hour plot below.

Image
3 likes   

lando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:44 am
Location: Tampa

Re: ATL: NESTOR - Models

#70 Postby lando » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:44 am

cmc sniffed this out almost 10 days ago, spinning a Cory off the boc from the epac. Euro jumped on with less organization the next run. Gfs had nothing
0 likes   

Bigwhitey
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:28 am

Re: ATL: NESTOR - Models

#71 Postby Bigwhitey » Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:06 am

Looks like the cmc wins the award for sniffing out Mestor and GFS for track and strength :double:
0 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests