EPAC: OCTAVE - Remnants

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EPAC: OCTAVE - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:08 pm

Location: 11.0°N 125.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1250 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual
development of this system during the next few days while the
system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#2 Postby StruThiO » Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:19 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near an area of low
pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has become
better organized since last night, and if this trend continues,
advisories will likely be issued later today or tonight while it
moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:19 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#4 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:20 pm

Now Potential Tropical Cyclone 18-E. I’m surprised how quickly this has organized in the last day.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:51 pm

aspen wrote:Now Potential Tropical Cyclone 18-E. I’m surprised how quickly this has organized in the last day.

It's strengthening more than what the models have been recently indicating. However, earlier this week the GFS and Euro actually made this a decent TC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#6 Postby Steve820 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:09 pm

aspen wrote:Now Potential Tropical Cyclone 18-E. I’m surprised how quickly this has organized in the last day.


PTC's are only declared when a system with a high chance of forming is close to land and requires TS watches or warnings. This is far out to sea and thus won't get a PTC designation. Likely to become TD 18-E and then Octave though. I'm a bit surprised how quickly this has been organizing, might be a TD by tonight or so.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#7 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:41 pm

Now TD-18E. Not forecast to strengthen much though.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 126.5W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2265 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#8 Postby Astromanía » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:42 pm

Steve820 wrote:
aspen wrote:Now Potential Tropical Cyclone 18-E. I’m surprised how quickly this has organized in the last day.


PTC's are only declared when a system with a high chance of forming is close to land and requires TS watches or warnings. This is far out to sea and thus won't get a PTC designation. Likely to become TD 18-E and then Octave though. I'm a bit surprised how quickly this has been organizing, might be a TD by tonight or so.


So, nobody cares about the fishes? :cry:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#9 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:03 pm

Astromanía wrote:
Steve820 wrote:
aspen wrote:Now Potential Tropical Cyclone 18-E. I’m surprised how quickly this has organized in the last day.


PTC's are only declared when a system with a high chance of forming is close to land and requires TS watches or warnings. This is far out to sea and thus won't get a PTC designation. Likely to become TD 18-E and then Octave though. I'm a bit surprised how quickly this has been organizing, might be a TD by tonight or so.


So, nobody cares about the fishes? :cry:


It's not a matter of "caring" so much. There's no technical, meteorological criteria to designate a PTC, other than the perceived potential of TS+ land impacts within the watch/warning timeframe. It's just a way to start issuing advisories and thus watches/warnings on a system that doesn't yet meet all the technical criteria of a tropical cyclone. If/when it does it will be re-designated a TD or named TS as necessary.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:52 pm

OCTAVE, EP, E, , , , , 18, 2019, TS, O, 2019101506, 9999999999, , 041, , , 2, WARNING, 3, EP182019
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone located nearly 1500 mi
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become a little better organized. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity
estimate is 2.5/35 kt. Furthermore, late-arriving ASCAT-C data from
earlier today showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors in the northwest
quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the intensity estimate
is 35 kt, and the system is now Octave, the 15th named storm of the
Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The tropical storm unexpectedly accelerated southwestward for a
brief period earlier this afternoon, but it has since resumed a slow
westward crawl. Octave is caught in a region of nearly zero net
steering flow, and is therefore expected to move very little for the
foreseeable future. Due to Octave's jump to the southwest, the NHC
track forecast has been generally adjusted in that direction, and is
based primarily on a blend of the the GFS and ECMWF global models,
both of which call for a slow looping track through 120 h.

Octave is located in an environment that could support slight
additional strengthening, as shown by the statistical guidance,
though the dynamical models suggest it has already peaked.
Upper-level convergence and a drier surrounding environment are
forecast to become inhibiting factors to the cyclone's convection in
about 48 h, and it could become a remnant low soon after. The NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted only slightly to account for
the higher initial intensity and follows the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 9.8N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Astromanía » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:22 am

wow he made it :eek:
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:45 am

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Convection around the center briefly dissipated earlier tonight,
but has since redeveloped with cloud tops colder than -70 C. Octave
has a ragged appearance, and it is apparent that some northeasterly
shear is affecting the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed
several wind vectors of 35-40 kt, and therefore the initial
advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt.

Octave has slowed to a crawl tonight, with an initial motion of
270/01 kt. Weak steering flow will prevail around the cyclone for
the next several days, and a meandering motion is expected
throughout the forecast period with a total net motion of only about
100 n mi during that time. The official NHC forecast is between
the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance, which
resulted in only a slight westward shift in the track beyond day 3.

The intermittent bursts of convection are suggesting that the system
has been trying to fight off a dry environment. In addition, the
shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to change little
in the next 12-18 hours. These moderately negative factors
offsetting the warm SSTs should cause Octave to not change much in
intensity today. By later tonight, even drier air is expected to
begin entraining into Octave's circulation, and at the same time
20-25 kt southeasterly winds aloft will begin to shear the cyclone.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause weakening to
begin, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low between 48-72
hours. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and
near the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 9.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:45 pm

Dry air appears to be quickly taking its toll on Octave. Best Track is down to 35 kt and the storm’s convection is barely there. If some doesn’t flare up soon, I can see Octave degrading to a remnant low by tonight.
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:40 pm

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a
well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery.
With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data
revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt. A new small
burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's
difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will
meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone. The
new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could
maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's
probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate
into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase
substantially. Either way, dry air and increasing shear are
expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next
24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt. This motion is
likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level
trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make
a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous
forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids.
However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi
spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET
model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
exactly where Octave will end up. Fortunately, it is not likely to
be a significant cyclone at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:42 pm

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's convection has waxed and waned since the tropical storm
formed yesterday, and it's once again trending upward. Convection
redeveloped in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone during the past
few hours, staving off remnant low status for now. The intensity
remains 35 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The global models
indicate that upper-level winds will become unfavorable for the
continued maintenance of deep convection on Saturday, so Octave is
still not expected to last much longer as a tropical cyclone. The
new NHC forecast maintains Octave as a tropical storm for 12 more
hours, but this could be generous. Once it becomes a remnant low,
occasional disorganized patches of convection will probably be
enough to maintain a weak low for at least a few more days, but it
is not expected to make any kind of significant comeback.

Octave has continued to move northward, now at 4 kt. The shallow
tropical storm is caught between low-level southwesterly flow to its
south and easterly trade-wind flow to its north, and the dynamical
guidance is in extremely poor agreement on which flow regime will
dominate the motion of the cyclone after it becomes post-tropical
over the weekend. A few models (including the ECMWF and HMON)
forecast that neither regime will dominate and Octave will move very
little for the next 5 days. The overall model spread is over 600
miles by day 5, but I have no reason to favor any one track over the
others at this point. Therefore, the official track forecast is
largely unchanged and lies near the middle of the unusually wide
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 11.5N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:04 am

Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Dry air and southeasterly shear are taking their toll on Octave.
Small bursts of intermittent convection continue to the northwest of
Octave's center, and the lack of persistent deep convection over the
center is causing the low to gradually spin down. The latest
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests winds have
decreased to 30 kt, with even lower intensity estimates from SAB and
UW-CIMSS ADT. Given that the overnight scatterometer missed the
system, and the fact it does take time to spin down these lows, the
initial intensity is lowered generously to 30 kt.

Octave will continue to be in a hostile environment with about 25 kt
of southeasterly wind shear and in the presence very dry air for the
next few days. This should prevent any deep convection from
persisting over the cyclone long enough to maintain the current
vortex. Thus, a gradual weakening trend should continue, and Octave
may become a remnant low by tonight. Even after the system becomes
a remnant low, there could be occasional development of convection.
However, at this time it is not believed that this convection will
be sufficient enough to cause the cyclone to regenerate. This
remnant low is expected to persist through the end of the forecast
period.

Octave is drifting northeast and it should remain in a weak flow
regime for the entire forecast period. The official NHC forecast
shows a meandering motion for the next several days, and the
forecast track lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 11.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:58 am

Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Octave's last bit of deep convection dissipated about 6 hours ago,
around 0900 UTC, leaving the cyclone as a swirl of low-level clouds.
The maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on
the CI number from TAFB. Octave could still produce intermittent
bursts of convection during the next several days, but increased
shear and a dry air mass with mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent are likely to keep the activity from being persistent or
well organized. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, then
Octave would be declared a remnant low later today. The cyclone's
maximum winds should decrease a little more in the short term, but
the remnant low is likely to persist near the Intertropical
Convergence Zone for the entire 5-day forecast period.

Octave is moving slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt. The
depression is caught in a weak steering pattern, and it is likely
to meander around for the next 5 days, never reaching speeds any
higher than about 3 kt. No significant changes to the NHC track
forecast were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 11.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 12.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 12.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Remnants

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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