ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Abdullah
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#201 Postby Abdullah » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:13 pm

As someone with no knowledge about this, how exactly do Cold Fronts kill storms? Storms can't persevere through them?
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#202 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:19 pm

Latest VDM, remains a warm core.

063
URNT12 KNHC 252203
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172019
A. 25/21:42:00Z
B. 26.34 deg N 092.94 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 999 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 43 kt
I. 222 deg 22 nm 21:34:30Z
J. 320 deg 51 kt
K. 223 deg 26 nm 21:33:00Z
L. 33 kt
M. 046 deg 32 nm 21:52:30Z
N. 156 deg 42 kt
O. 047 deg 35 nm 21:53:30Z
P. 21 C / 455 m
Q. 24 C / 456 m
R. NA / NA
S. 134 / 01
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 0117A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 51 KT 223 / 26 NM 21:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 209 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#203 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:21 pm

Abdullah wrote:As someone with no knowledge about this, how exactly do Cold Fronts kill storms? Storms can't persevere through them?


It kills tropical cyclones, as tropical systems get their energy from the warm humid surface environment and warm oceans.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#204 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:26 pm

Mobile, Ala is dealling with multiple tornado warnings at the same time out ahead of this system. One being a PDS with lots of damage.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#205 Postby hcane27 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:43 pm

From Satsuma in Alabama. We have just had our 6th tornado warning of the day !!!!!!!! Several have left damage.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#206 Postby Buck » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:12 pm

hcane27 wrote:From Satsuma in Alabama. We have just had our 6th tornado warning of the day !!!!!!!! Several have left damage.


Stay safe!
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#207 Postby facemane » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:02 pm

Abdullah wrote:As someone with no knowledge about this, how exactly do Cold Fronts kill storms? Storms can't persevere through them?


in addition to what NDG said above. Cold fronts come with cold,dry air behind them. They also bring very strong shear with them. Nestor was
a good example. The northern gulf had 50 + knot winds at mid level. Those types of winds simply don't allow thunderstorms to build. No tropical
cyclone is going to run through that without rapidly weakening
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm

#208 Postby SoupBone » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:12 pm

NDG wrote:Cold front just passed buoy 42002, temp and dewpoint dropping, check out the wind gusts!!!!

Conditions at 42002 as of
2140 GMT on 10/25/2019:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
Wind Gust (GST): 48.6 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 70.3 °F

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42002



Dude the wind is kicking hard here in Houston. This front is awesome.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#209 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:45 pm

Only 6 hours being tropical.

AL, 17, 2019102600, , BEST, 0, 270N, 925W, 45, 999, EX
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#210 Postby MarioProtVI » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:05 pm

Image

this is a bruh moment

But seriously ive never seen a track like this since Philippe.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#211 Postby mcallum177 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:29 pm

I am onboard the Carnival Vista and our in room TV says 995 mb and 46 knots at present location. The ship is rocking and it sounds like a train outside the balcony. Apparent wind on the deck is 65 knots.

I usually don't ever post and just lurk but this is my first time experiencing a TS.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#212 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:30 pm

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Re: ATL: OLGA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#213 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:32 pm

It is still producing sheared tropical convective pattern. Likely still tropical
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#214 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

...OLGA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga made by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone
becoming embedded within a cold front. Strong northwesterly flow was
observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga's center and a sharp
temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone.
It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any
significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface
observations suggest that either the front passes through the center
of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based
on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this
is the last NHC advisory.

Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas
associated the front are now considered to be representative of the
overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at
45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt
found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga's
strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday
morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi
Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great
Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated
before the end of the weekend.

Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated
tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical
Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible
tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information
specific to your area, please see products from your local weather
service office at weather.gov.

Key messages:

1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about
hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes
can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 27.8N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#215 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:04 pm

LLC passed over this oil rig, it was still tropical.

Conditions at: KGBK observed 26 October 2019 01:15 UTC
Temperature: 28.0°C (82°F)
Dewpoint: 26.0°C (79°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.49 inches Hg (998.7 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 knots; 15.1 m/s)
gusting to 52 MPH (45 knots; 23.4 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2400 feet AGL
Present Weather: BR (mist)
KGBK 260115Z AUTO 14029G45KT 4SM BR BKN013 BKN020 OVC024 28/26 A2949 RMK A01
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#216 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:15 pm

Is about to go over this other oil rig, still showing a warm core.

Conditions at: KGHB observed 26 October 2019 02:55 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.50 inches Hg (999.1 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 knots; 9.9 m/s)
gusting to 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 miles (0.40 km)
Ceiling: 500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1200 feet AGL
Present Weather: FG (fog)
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#217 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:42 pm

CoC passed just over this other rig.

Conditions at: KGHB observed 26 October 2019 03:35 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
Winds: from the NW (310 degrees) at 55 MPH (48 knots; 25.0 m/s)
gusting to 69 MPH (60 knots; 31.2 m/s)
Visibility: 2.50 miles (4.02 km)
Ceiling: 4900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 600 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 8000 feet AGL
Present Weather: BR (mist)
KGHB 260335Z AUTO 31048G60KT 2 1/2SM BR SCT006 BKN049 OVC080 25/25 A2943 RMK A01
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#218 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:51 pm

Definitely seems like I'm gonna get a decent hit from the core of this storm if it continues its current track.
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#219 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:34 am

I think Olga still had a warm core all the way to landfall, New Orleans International:

    Conditions at: KMSY observed 26 October 2019 08:24 UTC
    Temperature: 26.1°C (79°F)
    Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 88%]
    Pressure (altimeter): 29.55 inches Hg (1000.8 mb)
    Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 29 MPH (25 knots; 13.0 m/s)
    gusting to 41 MPH (36 knots; 18.7 m/s)
    Visibility: 1.50 miles (2.41 km)
    Ceiling: 1700 feet AGL
    Clouds: scattered clouds at 1100 feet AGL
    broken clouds at 1700 feet AGL
    overcast cloud deck at 2400 feet AGL
    Present Weather: +TSRA BR (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s), mist)
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Re: ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#220 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:09 am

Just wow!! New Orleans International:

    Conditions at: KMSY observed 26 October 2019 08:53 UTC
    Temperature: 25.6°C (78°F)
    Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 90%]
    Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg (999.4 mb)
    [Sea-level pressure: 999.5 mb]
    Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
    gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)

    Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
    Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
    Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
    overcast cloud deck at 2100 feet AGL
    Present Weather: +TSRA BR (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s), mist)
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