ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Recon in the air

I've few doubts it will find some TS winds, the only question is Olga or Pablo? As 98L is 100% a TS as well at this point.

yeah TD 17 is almost certainly at TS.


98l is darn near a hurricane if not already lol..

[NDG]

Buoy 42002 pressure now down 1005mb

[Buck]

So if they classify it was post-tropical but find gale-force winds, will it still receive a name?

Honestly, I don't think this will be necessary... I'm expected recon to find enough to classify it as TS Olga before it becomes post-tropical. Just curious as to what would happen in that scenario.

[GCANE]

It'll be Olga. Bones won't have a chance.

[northjaxpro]

This system will be named Olga first as it will be impacting the Gulf Coast region later today and tonight and TS watches and warnings must be posted asap. We will see a special advisory later today when Recon confirms we have a TS.

[cycloneye]

It'll be Olga. Bones won't have a chance.

https://i.imgur.com/UlovfCs.jpg

Or Pablo? There is a race now.

[tailgater]

I don't think I have seen a TC push out shear as well as this.
Most likely due to late-season cooling effect of the upper troposphere.

https://i.imgur.com/lfliJqD.png

Wow that is pretty amazing. Do anyone think this will get a name?

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the center of TD 17 could pass directly overhead tonight. If the convection continues to fire over the COC could get pretty nasty tonight but I expect the biggest rain and tornado threat east of here.

[GCANE]

Looks like this may be heading east and trying to out run the front.
Recon will shed a ton of light on this.

[GCANE]

Could be a big problem if recon finds the CoC in the center of that donut hole.

[wxman57]

You can clearly see the cold front extending south from the low center. Look at the cold air strato-cumulus approaching the southern BoC. This is a west Gulf frontal low. This type of low develops along many fall, early winter, and spring cold fronts. As cold air accelerates southward down the coast of Mexico, a wave forms east of the lower TX coast. The wave develops a circulation center, resulting in even stronger post-frontal winds west of the cold front and north of the warm front off the LA coast. Sometimes they can develop hurricane force winds, as was the case with the Storm of the Century in March of 1993. It’s not a separate tropical low. There is only a single low center. Don’t need ASCAST or recon, as there are plenty of surface obs out there.

[psyclone]

Looks like a typical CAA regime over the western Gulf. At least someone is getting "fall" weather. Certainly not my side of the Gulf..

[TallyTracker]

Recon may have been sent out largely to use up left-over funding. I agree that it is looking more like a frontal low now. You can see the frontal boundary continuing eastward south of the center now. May have briefly been a TD or weak TS until about noon IMO. Recon will at least tell us if there are some TS winds associated with the circulation or if it’s all due to the front.

[tropicwatch]

They are finding ts winds now let see what kind of circulation it has.

[wxman57]

They are finding ts winds now let see what kind of circulation it has.

No question that it has 35kt winds, and no question whether there is a circulation - but it’s a frontal low. West Gulf frontal lows almost always have TS strength winds. I’ve been forecasting them for our NW Gulf clients since 1980.

[Aric Dunn]

This clearly developed from a Tropical wave in the BOC then a cold front approached big difference..

[lrak]

Sure is cool looking The satellite loops are awesome. Stay safe everyone.

[northjaxpro]

This was at 15Z this analysis. Pressure now down to 1004 mb. Close call what Recon finds. Cold Front may have merged with the TD 17 now. We will know very shortly.

[psyclone]

This clearly developed from a Tropical wave in the BOC then a cold front approached big difference..

What exactly is the "big difference"? As far a sensible wx is concerned I see none..but I'm not a pro...

[Aric Dunn]

This clearly developed from a Tropical wave in the BOC then a cold front approached big difference..

What exactly is the "big difference"? As far a sensible wx is concerned I see none..but I'm not a pro...

just that it is not a frontal low. formed independently and warm core..