ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico continue to show signs of
organization. Although recent visible satellite imagery indicates
that the disturbance still does not have a well-defined center,
further development is anticipated and there is a high chance that
a short-lived tropical depression will form later tonight or on
Friday. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front or become
post-tropical late Friday or Saturday over the central Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected
behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and
Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/6XJRG8M

[Steve]

Just Die Nestor. I have reservations for Brennan's in New Orleans Saturday Night. I really don't need this. Hit Florida as a thundershower and nothing more please.

Ambiance is top notch, and the new regime is pretty good. It’s not top 10 in the city, but you’re not going to go wrong either because Top 50 in the city still rules.

NHC has it 70% before absorption/merger. No doubt in my mind it’s a broad low quasi depression probably just broad at the surface. I think it will make the jump tonight and then just be part of a tropical surge along the slow moving front. Maybe SW and SC MS get the most rain, but it’s going to set up in lines which particularly sucks because it’s Voodoo. Freaking GnR had a 3 hour set tomorrow, and they’re probably going to have to cancel to save the park. If we get 3-4” here, probably wont be able to have anything until Sunday which is a bad day this year. Alternatively they could let us slop out tomorrow and just cancel the rest of the weekend.

[HurricaneBelle]

Just Die Nestor. I have reservations for Brennan's in New Orleans Saturday Night. I really don't need this. Hit Florida as a thundershower and nothing more please.

Nestor's been dead for days now.

[johngaltfla]

Just Die Nestor. I have reservations for Brennan's in New Orleans Saturday Night. I really don't need this. Hit Florida as a thundershower and nothing more please.

Ambiance is top notch, and the new regime is pretty good. It’s not top 10 in the city, but you’re not going to go wrong either because Top 50 in the city still rules.

NHC has it 70% before absorption/merger. No doubt in my mind it’s a broad low quasi depression probably just broad at the surface. I think it will make the jump tonight and then just be part of a tropical surge along the slow moving front. Maybe SW and SC MS get the most rain, but it’s going to set up in lines which particularly sucks because it’s Voodoo. Freaking GnR had a 3 hour set tomorrow, and they’re probably going to have to cancel to save the park. If we get 3-4” here, probably wont be able to have anything until Sunday which is a bad day this year. Alternatively they could let us slop out tomorrow and just cancel the rest of the weekend.

Thank you! We shall check it out. We're just coming to have some fun and check out the real haunted houses:)

[Steve]

Here comes the juice off the Yucatan and SE side of the system. It looks like one that could be decent if it had tomorrow night to crank. Still looks like it could get to 35-40mph but probably away from the center.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[tailgater]

We have to watch the hot tower near the center to see if persists, if so I think the NHC will probably have to pull the trigger on declaring it a TC.
where is GCane with his cape and rain rates charts, lol.
guess I’ll have to find them myself PS comon cold front.

[Steve]

late night blowup around the center. IR Longwave has that third color of darker pink.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[GCANE]

Looks like its succesfully overcoming SW shear
Nearly symmetric high-raing rate signature with embedded warm-core.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[GCANE]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241541
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 24 OCTOBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-149

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 25/1600Z C. 26/1000Z
D. 22.5N 94.5W D. 23.5N 93.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2230Z E. 26/1130Z TO 26/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[GCANE]

Looks like the front is right on the coast
Doesn't look like a lot of dry air behind it, different than Nestor.

[GCANE]

Going to run into very high CAPE air over the Loop-Current Eddy

[GCANE]

Solid 20-knot winds on Multi-Sat IR / SCAT analysis (BL to ~700mb)

[GCANE]

Looking at TPW, this is going to be different than Nestor in two regards:

1) No TPW feed from the EPAC thru the IoT due to lack of CAG.
2) LL Vort looks stronger and comparable to the Front's Vort. This may create a larger LL Convergence as they move closer to each other.

[GCANE]

[Hammy]

Not sure what the purpose of the recon flight is given the front is going to reach it before the plane even takes off.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

It has well defined LLC this morning, but is mostly naked on the SW edge of the deep convection, the cold front is racing towards it.

[Dean4Storms]

Bet it’s already a minimal TS, but it isn’t going to last by the time Recon gets out there.