ATL: PABLO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: PABLO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:13 am

AL, 98, 2019102512, , BEST, 0, 360N, 330W, 30, 1009, LO,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#2 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:05 am

Ha, called it. Maybe a Karl 1980 repeat?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:27 am

Looks like it is nameable to me right now. Looks like a tiny Hurricane even though I doubt it's that strong.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:54 am

Very similar to Grace (2009), its location is almost the same too.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:03 am

I hope this gets named
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:03 am

That is just TOO CUTE!

Sorry, but...yeah. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:11 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:I hope this gets named



I think it is a TC now. It will get named in all likelihood later.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:08 am

This is the most tropical looking system of October in my opinion! I suspect it’s a solid tropical storm now. The models may not have picked up on it due to it’s small size.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:39 am

Looking very impressive for an "invest."

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:32 am

Yea... this is at least a 55 knot TS.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:33 am

Eye developing amidst shallow convection as is the norm for systems like this, with gale force winds. Significantly more namable than everything else this year besides the hurricanes and Gabrielle so almost certain trigger gets pulled soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:39 am

Def. should get a name sooner rather than later. Tiny little system embedded in a larger circulation. These type of storms are super interesting!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:47 am

Yeah I LOVE these weird tiny embedded systems in midlatitide systems, fascinating in both origin and appearance. And rarely causes major casualties or damage lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:51 am

Well, looks like we are catching up quickly on named storms developing in this month. By the end of today, we in good probability will have 4 named storms for the month. I predicted we would have five.

May have shot at this predix after all. As we have seen already, we can get quick spin-ups to develop.

.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:58 am

Here comes Pablo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby KWT » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:03 pm

Clearly a tropical storm at the moment, kinda reminding me of what Vince/Grace looked like, also not too dissimilar to alot of those 'medicanes' that we see in the mediterrean. Small, compact with a clear structure.

Seems to be intensifying at the moment as well, great presentation!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby Buck » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:20 pm

Wow, look at this little one! I assume they will wait until 5PM, but I love watching this type of late-season storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:34 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:40 pm

Shower activity continues to become better organized in association
with a small-scale low pressure area embedded within a larger
extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the
Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is
forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the
Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby KWT » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Shower activity continues to become better organized in association
with a small-scale low pressure area embedded within a larger
extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the
Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is
forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the
Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


Well thats certainly an understatement, the system is 1000% a TS right now, not sure why they are holding back from it to be brutally honest!

Still, the NHC has got form on being FAR too conservative, if this wasn't out where it was, it would already have been Olga 6hrs ago...
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