WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

The eye is starting to come out nicely on IR imagery: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... rnerds.png

[Highteeld]

Dark Grey embedded in White ~ T 6.5

[aspen]

Dark Grey embedded in White ~ T 6.5
https://i.imgur.com/AaCTvkf.png

It’s probably a low end Cat 4 now, but I would go with T#6.0 instead of T#6.5 because the eye isn’t quite good enough.

[Highteeld]

Dark Grey embedded in White ~ T 6.5
https://i.imgur.com/AaCTvkf.png

It’s probably a low end Cat 4 now, but I would go with T#6.0 instead of T#6.5 because the eye isn’t quite good enough.

OW embedded in White now, still oblong though

[1900hurricane]

[aspen]

While Halong’s eye is still oblong, given the rate of organization we’ve seen today, it should be mostly cleared out by the next best track update tonight. A Cat 5 super typhoon seems very likely.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV04 204000 6.0 940.6 115.0 6.0 6.0 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -16.59 -81.82 EYE 6 IR 66.5 19.00 -152.04 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7

[aspen]

2019NOV04 204000 6.0 940.6 115.0 6.0 6.0 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -16.59 -81.82 EYE 6 IR 66.5 19.00 -152.04 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7

I can’t wait to see how high the raws shoot up once we get some more clearing of the eye.

Based on the rate of intensification seen today and the massive amounts of <-85 C convection, is it possible Halong could reach or exceed 155 kt?

[mrbagyo]

2019NOV04 204000 6.0 940.6 115.0 6.0 6.0 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -16.59 -81.82 EYE 6 IR 66.5 19.00 -152.04 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7

I can’t wait to see how high the raws shoot up once we get some more clearing of the eye.

Based on the rate of intensification seen today and the massive amounts of <-85 C convection, is it possible Halong could reach or exceed 155 kt?

THEY surely won't let that happen.

[Tailspin]

EDT

https://imgur.com/YUsGbxV


https://imgur.com/ahE2FN7

[aspen]

2019NOV04 204000 6.0 940.6 115.0 6.0 6.0 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -16.59 -81.82 EYE 6 IR 66.5 19.00 -152.04 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7

I can’t wait to see how high the raws shoot up once we get some more clearing of the eye.

Based on the rate of intensification seen today and the massive amounts of <-85 C convection, is it possible Halong could reach or exceed 155 kt?

THEY surely won't let that happen.

Well, given what happened with Hagibis and Bualoi, I guess you’re right.

But is there a chance Halong could actually reach high end Cat 5 intensity (regardless of what the JTWC says about it) before the system enters less favorable conditions by tomorrow afternoon?

[Hayabusa]

Go to positive pls

2019NOV04 213000 6.0 940.6 115.0 6.0 6.2 7.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -2.86 -81.06 EYE 9 IR 66.5 19.08 -151.88 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/fyviCIJ

Just eye balling don't look any better than a cat2 making a run @ C3 atm.

[aspen]

I think the reason why Halong has yet to clear out its eye is because, like Bualoi prior to its peak intensity, it is undergoing an EWRC. Its IR appearance is very reminiscent to pre-peak Bualoi, and microwave imagery from a few hours ago showed a partial outer eyewall.

[Tailspin]

On sat appearence the eyewall looks some what elongated atm. Its not picture perfect. Will wait for 1900hurricane opinion he's always meticulous with assessing systems.

[mrbagyo]

As expected, cloudtops are warming a bit this morning.

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

Coldest CDO rings are getting more evenly distributed around the forming eye; would suggest it's still organizing. Better symmetry than an hour ago.

[Highteeld]