WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#261 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:26 pm

1900hurricane wrote:As for the current weakening, I think southerly shear may be to blame, especially just below Halong's very high anvil. You can see on a WV/vis overlay the northward high clouds to the south of the system and northeastward moving high clouds to the system's southwest, a sharp contrast to the low level flow in those regions. The southerly shear has actually been held in check over the past day or so probably by the exceptionally intense convection and outflow, but with Halong slowing down and perhaps digging into the heat content a little more, it couldn't hold it off indefinitely.

https://i.imgur.com/33Gr4OI.gif

Sometimes I wonder if moderate shear/slightly restricted outflow can help a storm strengthen longer due to no banding features forming on the sheared flank of the eyewall, thus preventing an ERC. A la Dorian, and possibly Halong.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#262 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:33 pm

Highteeld wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:As for the current weakening, I think southerly shear may be to blame, especially just below Halong's very high anvil. You can see on a WV/vis overlay the northward high clouds to the south of the system and northeastward moving high clouds to the system's southwest, a sharp contrast to the low level flow in those regions. The southerly shear has actually been held in check over the past day or so probably by the exceptionally intense convection and outflow, but with Halong slowing down and perhaps digging into the heat content a little more, it couldn't hold it off indefinitely.

https://i.imgur.com/33Gr4OI.gif

Sometimes I wonder if moderate shear/slightly restricted outflow can help a storm strengthen longer due to no banding features forming on the sheared flank of the eyewall, thus preventing an ERC. A la Dorian, and possibly Halong.

It might not be impossible! Might be an area for future research.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#263 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:40 pm

The Polar Orbiting satellite for Haiyan was just goofy

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#264 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:56 pm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#265 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:07 pm

120 hr from GFS 11/1/2019 00z run :lol:

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#266 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:11 pm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#267 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:09 am

Looks like we're giving eyewall replacement a go.

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#268 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:32 am

But is it really?

24W HALONG 191106 0600 21.2N 150.6E WPAC 145 908


TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 6 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 6 November>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N21°10' (21.2°)
E150°30' (150.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#269 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:29 am

12z best track is 135 kt, which once again seems too high. I would’ve put 130-135 kt at 06z and 125 kt at 12z.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#270 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:07 am

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#271 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:21 am



It's been noted that the Atlantic has an ominous history with the "I" names (and to a lesser extent "M") in recent years. The WPAC seems to have a similar trend going with "H" and "M" storms going #beastmode even though the naming conventions are different (non-alphabetical). Haiyan, Halong, Hagibis, Hagupit '14, Mangkhut, Megi '10, Meranti '16, etc.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#272 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:24 am

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#273 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:30 am

SconnieCane wrote:


It's been noted that the Atlantic has an ominous history with the "I" names (and to a lesser extent "M") in recent years. The WPAC seems to have a similar trend going with "H" and "M" storms going #beastmode even though the naming conventions are different (non-alphabetical). Haiyan, Halong, Hagibis, Hagupit '14, Mangkhut, Megi '10, Meranti '16, etc.


The WPac H and M names have been nuts this decade. You’ve already mentioned Megi, Haiyan, Hagupit, Meranti, Mangkhut, Hagibis ‘19, and Halong ‘19, but there was also Halong ‘14, Maysak ‘15, and Haima ‘16. I guess maybe I’ll throw in Mufia ‘14 as well.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#274 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:21 pm

Really struggling with shear now. The undercutting shear from the S and SW remains, but the northern portion of the circulation is now entering the vicious mid-latitude shear belt.

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#275 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:57 pm

This sheardown reminds me of In-fa '15 near the end of its life.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#276 Postby Highteeld » Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:53 am

Had a good run. On to the next one
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#277 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:11 am

STS 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 8 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 8 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°05' (28.1°)
E155°50' (155.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 90 km (50 NM)
W 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Tropical Storm

#278 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:07 pm

TS 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 8 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 8 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N29°40' (29.7°)
E159°35' (159.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 220 km (120 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N31°30' (31.5°)
E164°00' (164.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N32°00' (32.0°)
E168°10' (168.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Tropical Storm

#279 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:27 pm

Now decoupled at about 31.5ºN, 161ºE.

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

#280 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:43 pm

So long Halong but you ain't retired yet, what would you do next time?

LOW
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 9 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 9 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N32°00' (32.0°)
E161°00' (161.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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