WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#221 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:48 pm

18Z is probably going to be peak intensity I imagine. I'm rather sympathetic to 160-165 kt personally, which is way up there.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#222 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:48 pm

Next ADT would probably go down.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#223 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:57 pm

The CDO has become extremely large
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#224 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:05 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Next ADT would probably go down.


I think so too. The CDO has slightly warmed over the last hour (although the eye has as well).
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#225 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:12 pm

Remains the same, but that's better than going down :P
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#226 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:15 pm

JMA 18Z DT8.0, CI7.5/FT7.5.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6.5
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#227 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:20 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Remains the same, but that's better than going down :P


It’s incredible “halong” Halong has held T#7.8 — 3 and a half hours as of this latest ADT update.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#228 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:23 pm

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Remains the same, but that's better than going down :P


It’s incredible “halong” Halong has held T#7.8 — 3 and a half hours as of this latest ADT update.


Yutu did that too except CI was stuck at 7.5
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#229 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:34 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:JMA 18Z DT8.0, CI7.5/FT7.5.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6.5
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5

wonder if they'll go 120 knots for 18z
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#230 Postby TorSkk » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:38 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:JMA 18Z DT8.0, CI7.5/FT7.5.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6.5
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5



How is it possible? MET has to be at 8.0 to get a DT of 8.0
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#231 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:48 pm

Remains 905 mb

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°20' (20.3°)
E150°35' (150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#232 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:49 pm

12z Hwrf at 15z took Halong sub 900 mb:

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#233 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:53 pm

I'd probably go with 170 kt. Not quite at Haiyan or Patricia levels, but clearly an extremely intense storm.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#234 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:54 pm

Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#235 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:01 pm

Highteeld wrote:Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON


Some people apparently aren’t doing their jobs very well.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#236 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:02 pm

Hmmm
24W HALONG 191105 1800 20.2N 150.6E WPAC 155 897
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#237 Postby TorSkk » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:04 pm

aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON


Some people apparently aren’t doing their jobs very well.


Technically CMG didn't meet the width requirements at 1800Z
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#238 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:06 pm

TorSkk wrote:
aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON


Some people apparently aren’t doing their jobs very well.


Technically CMG didn't meet the width requirements at 1800Z


That's not what I mean -- the 15Z analysis declared a T 7.0 for Halong, while this one, the latest, referred it to a 7.5.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#239 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:07 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Hmmm
24W HALONG 191105 1800 20.2N 150.6E WPAC 155 897


T#7.5 and sub-900 mbar....fair enough. Better late than never.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#240 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:55 pm

The changes in Halong’s CDO suggest an EWRC may finally be starting or will be starting soon, but it’s impressive how long it maintained such an amazing convective presentation. I can’t wait for the first visible images to come in once the Sun rises.
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