WPAC: NAKRI - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: NAKRI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:02 pm

90W INVEST 191031 1800 8.0N 127.0E WPAC 15 0
Last edited by Hayabusa on Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:06 am, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:03 pm

Another one that could be named but only once it's over the SCS again, if 99W ever gets named and be the first, then this would be Nakri.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:18 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:31 pm

It’s possible 90W could meander around in the SCS after forming, but that might just be typical >120 hr model uncertainty in its track.

90W and 99W aren’t the only things the models are picking up on. Long-term global runs suggest the possibility of a depression forming by the end of next week, and possibly being within an environment conductive for it to become a strong typhoon. However, this is similar to what the GFS suggested for Matmo, which developed later than expected and only got to moderate tropical storm status.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:06 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 010000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:12 pm

aspen wrote:90W and 99W aren’t the only things the models are picking up on. Long-term global runs suggest the possibility of a depression forming by the end of next week, and possibly being within an environment conductive for it to become a strong typhoon. However, this is similar to what the GFS suggested for Matmo, which developed later than expected and only got to moderate tropical storm status.


Interesting to watch for sure, the Euro also develops it.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:02 pm

944 mb but I think it's overblown especially when it's over the SCS :D
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:51 am

aspen wrote:It’s possible 90W could meander around in the SCS after forming, but that might just be typical >120 hr model uncertainty in its track.

90W and 99W aren’t the only things the models are picking up on. Long-term global runs suggest the possibility of a depression forming by the end of next week, and possibly being within an environment conductive for it to become a strong typhoon. However, this is similar to what the GFS suggested for Matmo, which developed later than expected and only got to moderate tropical storm status.



I think we are looking at something similar to Matmo in the SCS. Dynamics are still the same there at this point. (BY The way I have not posted on here in ages, glad to see the forum is still running!)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:20 am

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:50 am

ABPW10 PGTW 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030400Z-030600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.3N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022251Z 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CONVECTION
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-29C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH NVG, GFS, AND UKM SHOWING SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:52 am

med
ABPW10 PGTW 031530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031530Z-040600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 112.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031332Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE, SHALLOW BANDING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031334Z ASCAT-A IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CONSOLIDATING CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM, GFS, AND UKMET
SHOWING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO THE
WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:45 pm

With each global model run, 90W’s predicted max intensity keeps going up. The system is likely to stay within the SCS for almost a week, first moving towards the Philippines as it develops, and then reversing course towards Vietnam. The 00z GFS run has it deepen down to 950 mbar, which is probably somewhat overblown, but the fact that this intensity trend has continued is worth taking note of.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:29 am

WTPN22 PGTW 040330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 195 NM RADIUS OF 12.6N 114.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 113.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 113.6E, APPROXIMATELY
320 WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032238Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040107Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A PRONOUNCED
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND TO WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 90W AND ACCELERATE THE WINDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT TO ABOVE BASIN WARNING CRITERIA. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24HRS IN ADDITION
TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW CULMINATING IN THE
SYSTEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PREVIOUS POSITION AND
CURRENT POSITION IN PARAGRAPH 2.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:20 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 13.7N 114.1E POOR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 13.3N 116.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'b' (90W)

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:10 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'b' (90W)

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:05 am

TD
Issued at 10:05 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°50' (13.8°)
E115°25' (115.4°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:10 am

TS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40' (13.7°)
E115°50' (115.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:15 am

:lol:
90W INVEST 191105 1200 13.5N 115.8E WPAC 20 1001
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:21 am

TS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40' (13.7°)
E115°50' (115.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10' (13.2°)
E116°40' (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement ESE Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 7 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E116°40' (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55' (12.9°)
E115°40' (115.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55' (12.9°)
E113°10' (113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E110°35' (110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)



Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:45 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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