WPAC: NAKRI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:45 am

TS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 15:55 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40' (13.7°)
E115°55' (115.9°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:19 pm

25W NAKRI 191105 1800 13.8N 116.0E WPAC 25 1002
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:31 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051408Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING,
CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION AND 25-30
KT WINDS DISPLACED 50-90 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 25 KTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED 30-
35 KTS TO THE NORTH IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, BUT
MOSTLY 25 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND IN A BROAD SWATH TO THE SOUTH.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.0 (25 KTS) TO T2.0
(30 KTS) FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE JET TO THE NORTH IS COMPETING
WITH HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM
TO ENABLE SLOW CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT. TD 25W HAS BEEN SLOWLY
MEANDERING EASTWARD IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 25W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 60 KTS AT TAU 48 DUE TO THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL BE OFFSET BY
SUSTAINED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, WHICH WILL LIMIT TOTAL INTENSIFICATION
POTENTIAL. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. NAVGEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE TURN 25W TO THE NORTH IN THE NEAR
TERM, WHILE GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE, UKMET, AND ECMWF TURN 25W SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH GFS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER. ALL
MODELS THEN REFLECT A WESTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATION AFTER TAU 48 AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
AND IS PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM.
TD 25W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. IT WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DECREASES, AND THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER
TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

Tailspin

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Tailspin » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:37 pm

IDJ21020
METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS COUNCIL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta

TECHNICAL BULETIN TROPICAL CYCLE

Issued by TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER JAKARTA
At: 15:51 UTC 11/11/2019
Used only as a consideration of making weather forecasts, not to be disseminated directly to the public.

System: 1
Storm ID: 90W

TROPICAL CYCLE: NAKRI
Data at: 05/1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.7LU
Longitude: 115.8BT
Positioning Accuracy: about 30 miles (55 km)
Direction of motion:
Movement Speed:
Direction 1: From Tarakan
At +0: 630 miles (1170 km) north
At +12:
At +24: 600 miles (1100 km) north
Direction 2: From Natuna
At +0: 730 miles (1360 km) northeast

10-Minute Maximum Wind: 35 knots (65 km / h)
Gust 3-second maximum: 50 knots (95 km / hr)
Cyclone center pressure: 998 hPa
Intensity: Gale
24 hour intensity: Gale

FORECASTING DATA
Date / Time: Position: Accuracy: Speed.Want Max: Center pressure: Gust
(UTC): degrees: miles (km): knots (km / hr): hPa: knots (km / hr):
+24: 06/1200: 13.2LU 116.7BT: 050 (095): 045 (085): 992: 065 (120)
+48: 07/1200: 13.0LU 116.7BT: 060 (110): 055 (100): 985: 080 (150)
+72: 08/1200: 12.9LU 115.7BT: 100 (185): 065 (120): 975: 095 (175)

TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION
For more information contact (021) 6546315/18

IMPACT
NAKRI Tropical Cyclone has an impact on the weather in Indonesia in the form of:

- Medium to Heavy Rain in Aceh, North Sumatra, Jambi, Bangka Belitung, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan and North Kalimantan.


The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 06/0000 UTC by Jakarta TCWC.


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:29 am

25W NAKRI 191106 0600 13.2N 116.4E WPAC 35 994


TS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 6 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 6 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E116°10' (116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:50 am

Nakri is now firing off some extremely cold convection too, although it doesn't have the low level structure to do much with it right now.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:59 am

Image

Current intensity estimate is just about right for this sheared system
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:15 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
06NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 061746Z ATMS MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE SURROUNDED BY
A NOTCH IN DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (40 KTS)
FROM RJTD AND PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
SHOWING A SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, AND
SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM SSTS AROUND 29-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 25W IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCAST TO THE NORTH EAST AND A WEAKER STR ANCHORED OVER THE
INDOCHINA PENINSULA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, A STR BUILDING OVER NORTHERN LAOS WILL EXTEND
EASTWARD, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 36. ONCE
STEERING SHIFTS TO THE STR, TS 25W WILL TURN SOUTH, THEN WEST AND
ACCELERATE TOWARDS VIETNAN THROUGH TAU 72. GOOD OUTLFOW, WARM SSTS
AND HIGH OHC VALUES WILL OFFSET MODERATE VWS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE LEVELING OFF BY TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW WEAKENS AND OHC VALUES
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE ARE TWO
DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE, UKMET ENSEMBLE,
HWRF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS FAVOR A NORTHWARD LOOP BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. THE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, JGSM, EGRR AND GFS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE ACCELERATING WEST. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE
ON SLOW AND DRIFTING MOTION DURING THE INITIAL FORECAST TAUS
FOLLOWED BY WESTWARD ACCELERATION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS
THE SOUTHERN TURN AND IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS
VIETNAM AND SHOW LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96. THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
HAS SLOWED SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO REACH A PEAK IN INTENSITY AT TAU 48 OF 55 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING
STEADILY DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN VIETNAM.
MOST CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NEAR THE JTWC TRACK
FROM TAU 72 TO 120 WITH THE EXCEPTION NAVGEM WHICH TRACKS
CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEING IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:00 pm

STS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 7 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 7 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E117°05' (117.1°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 390 km (210 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:25 pm

Looks like it's coming along alright, although there is some backing easterly shear.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#31 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:30 pm

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:49 am

5 knots more...
STS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 10:05 UTC, 7 November 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 7 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°20' (13.3°)
E117°05' (117.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 390 km (210 NM)
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#33 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:03 am

1-minute sustained winds are also up to 60 kt. Nakri should reach typhoon status by the next advisory.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:28 am

Structure has takin a bit of a hit due to backing shear.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#35 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:03 pm

Nakri is producing some extremely deep convection (-85 C or colder), but as 1900hurricane posted above, shear has taken quite a toll on the storm’s core structure. Unless shear relaxes a bit, we shouldn’t see much more intensification over the next few days.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:25 pm

Nakri is absolutely blasted with easterly shear right now. Deep core convection is fending it off somewhat, but there's only so much it can do.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Typhoon

#37 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:10 am

TY 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 8 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 8 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30' (12.5°)
E116°25' (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area S 170 km (90 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25' (12.4°)
E113°50' (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E110°40' (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E107°55' (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Typhoon

#38 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:12 am

Image

TY 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 8 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 8 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30' (12.5°)
E116°25' (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area S 170 km (90 NM)
N 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25' (12.4°)
E113°50' (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E110°40' (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E107°55' (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:10 pm

Downgraded

STS 1924 (Nakri)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 9 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 9 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°25' (12.4°)
E114°20' (114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:56 pm

25W NAKRI 191109 0000 12.6N 115.0E WPAC 60 989
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests