WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#101 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:24 am

The movement of Kalmaegi is already very erratic yet it may even get worse with a possible binary interaction with TD a / (Fungwong)
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Severe Tropical Storm

#102 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:00 am

27W KALMAEGI 191119 1200 19.4N 122.5E WPAC 75 976
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#103 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:10 am

TY 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 19 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E122°30' (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#104 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:00 am

Doesn't look like a typhoon to me, and it's becoming more frontal in appearance by the hour.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:01 am

Starting to give it up now.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#106 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:02 am

Looks like its rapidly falling apart now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#107 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:35 am

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#108 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:42 am

TY 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 19 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°40' (19.7°)
E122°30' (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#109 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:53 am

A drawback of letting the RMW be estimated from the microwave data is that sometimes it does this. Somehow, I don't think Kalmaegi is sporting a 5 nm RMW at the moment.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 27W
Tuesday 19nov19 Time: 1035 UTC
Latitude: 19.70 Longitude: 122.75
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 12 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 957 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 90 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -3.1 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.45
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.28
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1007
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 11 Day: 19 Time (UTC): 0600

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#110 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:21 pm

GFS is initializing Kalmaegi as a 100+ kt typhoon at 6Z it initialized as 126 kt, so horribly wrong.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Typhoon

#111 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:03 pm

Current satellite images are showing the Lower levels decoupling from the mid levels. like its undergoing XT...
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:13 pm

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 19 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°00' (19.0°)
E122°05' (122.1°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:36 pm

Looks like it is being torn apart. Surface center going west, convection dissipating and moving NE. It's history. JMA had upgraded it to a typhoon as it was starting to fall apart.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:43 pm

I don’t know if Kalmaegi is even a tropical storm at this point. It looks like it’s merging with 28W’s outflow.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:50 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) JUST NORTH OF PALAUI ISLAND, PHILIPPINES WITH THE CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 191304Z ASCAT-A PASS THAT SHOWS A
COMPACTS LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). DECENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) ARE PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE STRONG (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IMPACTING TY 27W, MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL
MARGINAL. TY 27W HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DRIFTING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
STR CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LUZON
AND ACCELERATE AS THE STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND WILL DROP TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12. TY 27W WILL
ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 18 AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS STRONG CROSS TRACK
AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:54 pm

Image

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 19 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°05' (18.1°)
E122°00' (122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E119°30' (119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement SW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°05' (14.1°)
E117°10' (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement SW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:42 pm

Image
TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 20 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 20 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°00' (18.0°)
E122°00' (122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement S 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#118 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:49 pm

27W KALMAEGI 191120 0000 17.4N 121.6E WPAC 55 993
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Depression

#119 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:45 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A POORLY DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, A 192226Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 55 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH A RJTD INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). STRONG (25-35 KT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION ARE OVERCOMING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TS 27W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UNTIL DISSIPATING AROUND TAU 48, TS 27W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. DESPITE MOVING OVER THE SCS AFTER TAU 12,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE AND STEADY-TO-RAPID WEAKENING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF, THERE IS STRONG
CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

#120 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:17 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AS SEEN IN ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE 35 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY REFLECTS THE
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A 201243Z METOP-
A ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF LUZON IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DESPITE WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UNTIL DISSIPATING AROUND TAU 48, TS 27W WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE SHEAR. STEADY
WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THERE IS STRONG CROSS
TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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