WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'b' (27W)

#41 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:43 pm

JMA weather maps sees STS in 48 hours
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:25 pm

Image

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 13 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 13 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55' (12.9°)
E128°50' (128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 560 km (300 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20' (14.3°)
E125°25' (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E123°25' (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40' (17.7°)
E123°05' (123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35' (18.6°)
E121°50' (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°10' (19.2°)
E121°00' (121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 600 km (325 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:11 pm

:roflmao:
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby climateconcernnew » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:14 am

Hayabusa wrote::roflmao:
https://i.imgur.com/5dGVrJB.png


LOL. What happened to UKMET? They've taken another route.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:41 am

climateconcernnew wrote:
Hayabusa wrote::roflmao:
https://i.imgur.com/5dGVrJB.png


LOL. What happened to UKMET? They've taken another route.

Probably depends on how strong Kalmaegi gets. If it becomes a typhoon as UKMET shows, higher chance of a poleward track.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:08 am

Image

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 13 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 13 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°05' (13.1°)
E128°30' (128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 560 km (300 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20' (14.3°)
E126°00' (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40' (16.7°)
E124°20' (124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55' (17.9°)
E124°20' (124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E122°40' (122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 430 km (230 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30' (19.5°)
E121°50' (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 600 km (325 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:55 am

Oof, that easterly shear...

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:23 am

I don't know if I've ever seen a more poorly-organized TS, and that's saying a lot. Looks like a mid-level circulation racing northward to the northeast of Luzon. Can't identify any LLC.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:37 am

There is one, but it's not impressive. ASCAT has it well below the operational intensities. Looks like it's upshear of the persistent storms east of Samar. Easterly shear is absolutely blasting it.

Image

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:21 am

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kalmaegi is completely torn apart by shear later today.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:23 am

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:05 am

Still parallel, it's like ICON but ICON is ****

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:45 am

Models are hinting of a reformation of LLCC to the northwest
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:10 pm

JMA sees typhoon

Image

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 14 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 14 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°10' (15.2°)
E126°55' (126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 560 km (300 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°40' (15.7°)
E125°30' (125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E124°50' (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20' (16.3°)
E124°30' (124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40' (17.7°)
E122°40' (122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30' (18.5°)
E121°05' (121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40' (17.7°)
E118°40' (118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:58 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:02 pm

Not budging and it tries to reform it

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:40 am

Latest JTWC and JMA center positions indicate that the storm's center is near the southern edge of the bulk of very deep convection. CIMSS analysis shows that wind shear has now relaxed from previously moderate to strong levels, which could finally allow Kalmaegi to organized and strengthen.

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:18 am

Up to 70 kt expected

Image

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 14 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 14 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°20' (16.3°)
E126°40' (126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 560 km (300 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E124°50' (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55' (17.9°)
E122°30' (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35' (18.6°)
E120°20' (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E118°30' (118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement SW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:14 pm

I'm not sure that the circulation is even closed right now.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:38 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Not budging and it tries to reform it

https://i.imgur.com/cTHV9hM.png


The GFS is now on board with a Typhoon Kalmaegi and bombs it out to 960-970 mbar in the 18z run as it meanders east of Luzon.
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