WPAC: FENGSHEN - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:43 pm

STS 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 13 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 13 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°30' (16.5°)
E152°25' (152.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:51 pm

26W FENGSHEN 191113 1800 16.9N 151.5E WPAC 50 1000
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:47 pm

26W FENGSHEN 191114 0000 17.0N 150.0E WPAC 50 985
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:13 pm

Kalmaegi looks like a blooming flower while Fengshen looks like the withering one, but looks can be deceiving, if HWRF is right it doesn't peak it until Fengshen starts to round the STR.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:27 am

Maybe it's finally getting its acts together

Image
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#46 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:29 am



If it is, we could maybe see it making a run at Super Typhoon status. OHC alone can support at least a mid-range Cat 4 for the next ~3 days. However, based on the very tame model runs for Fengshen and how it’s been struggling recently, I doubt other environmental factors will be conductive for any significant intensification.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#47 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:49 am

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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#48 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:28 pm

Now up to 60 kt, almost a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Severe Tropical Storm

#49 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:55 pm

Microwave pass from 15:34z showed a pretty good looking inner eyewall and a partial outer eyewall. This was when Fengshen had this “mouth”-like convective feature on IR imagery, corresponding to the eyewall moat, but this has since vanished. I think it’s safe to assume the inner eyewall is now more dominant and the outer one has fallen apart.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 141534.GIF
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#50 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:43 pm

TY 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 14 November 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 14 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°25' (18.4°)
E144°25' (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#51 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 5:57 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#52 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:06 pm



He’s looking a lot better than yesterday. I could see it becoming a Cat 2 or 3 tomorrow.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#53 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:25 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#54 Postby Highteeld » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:19 pm

OW eye embedded in LG and surrounded by B yields T # of 5 ~ 90 knots

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Last edited by Highteeld on Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#55 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:39 pm

Here we go...

26W FENGSHEN 191115 0000 19.1N 143.7E WPAC 75 967
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#56 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:54 pm

Highteeld wrote:OW eye embedded in LG and surrounded by B yields T # of 5.5 ~ 102 knots

https://i.imgur.com/VBwnZaN.png


JTWC says 75 kt.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#57 Postby Highteeld » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:13 pm

aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:OW eye embedded in LG and surrounded by B yields T # of 5.5 ~ 102 knots

https://i.imgur.com/VBwnZaN.png


JTWC says 75 kt.

They've been doing very poorly lately ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#58 Postby Highteeld » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:20 pm

WMG eye embedded in LG and surrounded by B (should) yields T 5.5 ~ 102 knots

Image
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:26 pm

That's actually an instantaneous DT of 6.0. Constraints come into play right now, but JTWC appears to be behind the curve once again.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Typhoon

#60 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:41 pm

Highteeld wrote:WMG eye embedded in LG and surrounded by B (should) yields T 5.5 ~ 102 knots

https://i.imgur.com/uZk5DlN.png


That sure is a good looking Cat 1 :lol:

If they don’t upgrade it to >100 kt for the next advisory, then I’m going to have to seriously question if the JTWC is really putting in any effort. Hagibis, Bualoi, Halong, and now potentially Fengshen have all been poorly classified and severely underestimated within six weeks.
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