EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Remnants

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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Remnants

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:10 am

bep942019.dat 15-Nov-2019 07:40 899

EP, 94, 2019111506, , BEST, 0, 89N, 948W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 050, SPAWNINVEST, ep762019 to ep942019,
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Re: EPAC:INVEST 94E

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:24 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Fri Nov 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Raymond, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
become a little better organized this afternoon. Some additional
gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC:INVEST 94E

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:36 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Fri Nov 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Raymond, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has continued to become better organized this evening.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the system is producing
winds to near tropical storm force. Additional development of this
disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression or storm could
form later tonight or over the weekend while the system moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC:INVEST 94E

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:56 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160849
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019

Deep convection associated with the small low pressure area located
well south of the coast of Mexico has continued to increase and
become better organized overnight. ASCAT data from 03-04Z indicated
that the circulation was well-defined and there were believable
30 kt wind vectors. The ASCAT revealed a few higher wind vectors,
but they may have been rain contaminated. Based on these data and
a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, advisories are being initiated
on a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast for this
system is a bit tricky as small systems such as this can spin up or
down quite quickly. In the short-term, a dry and more stable air
from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event could be entrained into
the northern portion of the circulation today, which could cause a
disruption in the deep convection and/or an elongation of the
circulation. However, if the small cyclone remains south of the
main area of Tehuantepec winds, low vertical wind shear conditions
favor some intensification. The NHC intensity forecast leans on the
latter scenario and call for some strengthening during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, increasing southerly shear is
expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The intensity is
more uncertain than normal, but is fairly close to the intensity
consensus aids.

The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The track
forecast is a bit more straightforward as the cyclone should be
steered generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge located
over southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to near the southwestern portion of
the ridge and a west-northwestward heading is predicted. The
global models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the
NHC track follows a blend of the various global model predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC:INVEST 94E

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:08 am

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#6 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:29 am

Well this is odd to say the least: two simultaneously active tropical cyclones in the EPac....on November 16th.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:43 pm



000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161434
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

A pair of recent SSMIS overpasses revealed that the depression has
not become any better organized this morning with little evidence of
curvature in its convective bands. That said, the system is still
producing plenty of convection, particularly to the north of its
center. Earlier ASCAT data suggested that the system may already
have 35 kt winds, but it was flagged as questionable due to rain
contamination. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB do not
yet support tropical storm strength and the intensity assessment
remains 30 kt, perhaps conservatively so.

It has been difficult to identify the precise location of the
depression's center, even in first-light visible imagery. The
initial motion is consequently highly uncertain, but it appears that
the system is still moving generally westward at around 10 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone
heading westward at a slower speed during the next few days. The
track guidance remains in good agreement and the NHC track forecast
is essentially just an update of the previous advisory.

The depression is located within a seemingly favorable environment
for strengthening consisting of low shear, warm SSTs and sufficient
moisture. And yet, none of the dynamical models call for the system
to reach tropical-storm-strength. Early next week, dry air could
become an inhibiting factor if it wraps into the cyclone's
circulation, and this is forecast to occur by some of the global
models. Some short-term strengthening still seems likely given the
favorable environment so no change was made to the official
intensity forecast, which is above all of the guidance for the first
24 h. It lies between the lower dynamical guidance and higher DSHP
model thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 9.2N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 9.2N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 9.4N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:44 pm

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#9 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:30 pm

Looks pitiful right now. Forecast to become TS but gonna have to shape up quite a bit.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:08 pm

253
WTPZ41 KNHC 162032
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep
convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm
activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals
that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with
no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately
did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little
indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt.
Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec
gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence
would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a
tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now,
just in case the system makes a comeback later today.

The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or
west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from
accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial
position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last
advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This
is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's
current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any
time during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:16 pm

A typical 2019 EPAC system lol
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:39 pm

Kingarabian wrote:A typical 2019 EPAC system lol


Couldn't have said it better. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#13 Postby Astromanía » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:20 pm

I blinked and this was dead
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:37 am

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:49 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170839
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this morning as intrusions
of dry air have caused the area of thunderstorms that was previously
near the estimated center to dissipate. New clusters of convection
have recently developed but they lack organization. A couple of
ASCAT passes suggest that the overall circulation is less defined
than it was 24 hours ago, however, the passes missed the estimated
center making it difficult to determine whether a well-defined
center still exists. Given the current overall lack of
organization, the initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low over the
system, continued intrusions of dry air associated with a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are likely to prevent significant
re-organization of the deep convection, and strengthening is not
anticipated. The NHC forecast again calls for no change in wind
speed, however, the system could dissipate or become a remnant low
much sooner than indicated below.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the
depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation
occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:48 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171433
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

Convection has redeveloped near the center of circulation over the
past several hours, but this convection appears ragged in satellite
imagery. Despite the inability for the depression to maintain
organized deep convection for much of last night, recent microwave
data indicates that the circulation remains well-defined. The latest
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests the intensity
remains 25 kt, which will be the advisory initial intensity.

Despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm
sea surface temperatures in the path of the depression, the model
guidance unanimously either dissipate the system or make it a
remnant low within a couple of days. This could be due to the fact
that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it
opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the
previous one and shows no further strengthening. This is in
agreement with the model guidance, and the depression is forecast to
no longer be a tropical cyclone by 36 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its
remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:51 pm

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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:39 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172031
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression is poorly organized and is barely holding on as a
tropical cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicates that
the circulation is not as well-defined as previously thought. In
addition, convection that had developed earlier this morning near
the center is now weakening, with additional convection developing
well to its north. The initial advisory intensity is being held at
25 kt, since the scatterometer sampled maximum winds of a little
more than 20 kt.

All available intensity guidance unanimously weakens the depression
over the next couple of days, despite relatively low shear, a fair
amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in its path.
This is possibly due to the fact that the depression remains
embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break
out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and the depression is
expected to no longer be a tropical cyclone in 36 hours, if not
sooner.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at a little faster pace
of 8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer
the depression or its remnants generally west-northwestward until
dissipation occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:42 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180235
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone.
Satellite images indicate that the depression still has a closed
circulation and patches of deep convection mainly on its north
side. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory based
on T1.5/25 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The GFS
and ECMWF models suggest that the depression could continue to
produce a modest amount of deep convection on Monday before it moves
into an environment of increasing southwesterly wind shear. The NHC
forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, but
it could reach this status sooner given how weak the system is. All
of the global models shows the cyclone degenerating into a trough by
day 3, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario.

The center of the depression appears to have reformed a little to
the north of what we have been tracking. A long-term motion of
the system is 300/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the
northeast of the depression should steer it west-northwestward at a
slower pace until it dissipates in a few days. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one mostly
due to the initial position being farther north than expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:42 am

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