ATL: SEBASTIEN - Post-Tropical

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ATL: SEBASTIEN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:51 pm

90L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.18.1N.55.1W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:04 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure about 500 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms and strong winds on its northeast side. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form during the next two or three days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal
system after midweek and further development is not expected by that
time. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:01 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:33 am

50/50 now. Can we pass 2017 in storm count?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:36 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms with winds of around 30 mph on its northeast side.
Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become
less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a
frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not
expected. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:41 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:08 am

If this gets named, this will be the first Original name beginning with R and beyond to be used multiple times.

P was as far as we got before thanks to Philippe and Pablo as of this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby jconsor » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:19 am

I see things differently than the NHC. In my view, 90L's best chance to strengthen significantly is Thu, in the diffluent flow ahead of the trough/frontal system that NHC mentions.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ec ... SohWLw.png

EPS has shown a consistent signal showing the potential for 90L to become a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane Thu into Thu night. About 15% of EPS members now show 60+ kt surface winds based on the estimates from Weathernerds. Past several op ECMWF runs have also shown 90L becoming a much tighter and stronger system as it accelerates N/NE in the diffluent flow ahead of the W Atl trough.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ec ... SJ3dEA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ec ... 3X5mU0.png

Sciencerocks wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms with winds of around 30 mph on its northeast side.
Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become
less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a
frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not
expected.
For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:18 am

The Euro does seem pretty fond of it. Would be neat to end the season with a brief Hurricane Sebastien.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:15 pm

I’m not really sold on this one. Whatever circulation exists is very broad and is far from the convection as evident in satellite. This would have to act fast in order to develop and right now I’m not so keen on it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:36 pm

I'm banking on it developing a LLC under the convection because I don't think it has a chance with the existing vorticity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:41 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:16 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands has become better defined during the
past several hours. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
is also beginning to show signs of organization. Additional
development is possible and a tropical or subtropical depression
could form during the next day or two while it moves northwestward
and then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to
interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is
unlikely after that time. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:24 pm

I believe this is the 31st invest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. What was the last season to have reached 31+ invests? I suppose some year in the 2010-2012 trio.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:52 pm

Well hey, now convection has developed close to that center. Color me wrong, lol. Definitely wrapping up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby Nimbus » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:37 pm

Already experiencing some shear but there is convection near the LLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:14 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:31 pm

Reminds me a bit of Alex '10 prior to classification in the Caribbean, which is interesting because that was an early season case instead of a late season one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:48 pm

That 100% has 'the look' of something trying to wrap up, lopsided even as it is. Just looks to me like an LLC might develop slightly closer to the convection from the way it's looking. Nice lightning output near where I assume the center is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:04 am

The LLC is becoming better defined and it is doing so near the convection. This system could become a depression or a low end tropical storm over the next 24 hours.

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