WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#481 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:00 am

40 knot RI

29W KAMMURI 191202 0600 13.0N 125.6E WPAC 105 951
29W KAMMURI 191202 0000 12.9N 126.5E WPAC 90 964
29W KAMMURI 191201 1800 12.9N 127.8E WPAC 80 972
29W KAMMURI 191201 1200 13.0N 128.8E WPAC 70 980
29W KAMMURI 191201 0600 13.0N 129.7E WPAC 65 983
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#482 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:07 am

cebuboy wrote:I've checked the track of this Typhoon , the eye will directly pass over Legazpi City at its full strength. (which is a big city by Philippine standards with many people)
I'm a bit worried because this is a coastal city in front of Albay Gulf.
This bears similarity to Tacloban City during Haiyan landfall.

Storm surge is always high when it hits coastal gulf areas because of the coastal shape (incoming surge is trapped at its concentrated directly to the coast)
I also check that its high tide in the evening when it will make a landfall.
I do hope that people in the coastal area of this city will be entirely evacuated.


I don't think the angle of approach of this storm to Legaspi would maximize the surge in the city (the RFQ will pass north of the city) and the surge would be blocked by Bacacay.

The worst case scenario for storm surge in Legazpi would be a WNW to NW track from the south (probably a landfall in Sorsogon.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#483 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:13 am

2019DEC02 064000 6.1 943.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -2.66 -72.70 EYE 19 IR 13.3 13.05 -125.47 ARCHER HIM-8 23.3
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#484 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:29 am

Eye temp rapidly increasing
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#485 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:48 am

Delta of 82.81*C
2019DEC02 071000 6.1 943.8 117.4 6.1 6.0 6.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.30 -71.51 EYE 23 IR 13.3 13.06 -125.48 ARCHER HIM-8 23.3
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#486 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:35 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#487 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:51 am

Image

Yellow dot is Legaspi City
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#488 Postby tatlopuyo » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:31 am

Looks like the eye is about to skirt the northen tip of samar.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#489 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:41 am

Doing one last bout of intensification. Probably a marginal cat 4 at this point.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#490 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:46 am

Eyewall finally complete

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#491 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:47 am

85 kt cat 3 expecting 90 kt after landfall

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 December 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 2 December>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°00' (13.0°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 2 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°10' (13.2°)
E123°05' (123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E120°50' (120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E117°10' (117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°20' (11.3°)
E114°25' (114.4°)
Direction and speed of movement S 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)


Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#492 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:04 am

Still intensifying.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#493 Postby cebuboy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:21 am

This one is a nice shot of this Typhoon:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

The eye looks very clear.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#494 Postby cebuboy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:25 am

Latest video taken at the northern Samar just before evening:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0hx5hJa_zY

Looks pretty strong.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#495 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:12 am

2019DEC02 094000 6.1 943.8 117.4 6.1 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.38 -74.13 EYE 30 IR 64.7 12.94 -124.93 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7
2019DEC02 101000 6.3 939.5 122.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.23 -74.38 EYE 28 IR 64.7 12.95 -124.97 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7
2019DEC02 104000 6.3 939.4 122.2 6.3 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.97 -73.73 EYE 27 IR 64.7 13.04 -124.93 ARCHER HIM-8 23.8
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#496 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:34 am

PAGASA CATARMAN -
12.505382N, 124.628544E
Image

LAOANG MUNICIPAL BUILDING LAOANG
12.570056N, 125.010389E
974.31 hPa @18:45:10 PM (local time)
Image

CATANDUANES STATE COLLEGES VIRAC
13.583736N, 124.210648E
989.70hPa @ 19:15:10 PM (Local time)
Image

POLICE STATION BAGAMANOC BAGAMANOC
13.9395666N, 124.28873333E
996.86hPa @ 17:56:32 PM (Local Time)
Image
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#497 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:11 am

wow
Image

DURIAN's microwave was meaner though
Image
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#498 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:31 am

remains cat 3
29W KAMMURI 191202 1200 13.1N 124.5E WPAC 105 944
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#499 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:42 am

But 6.0

TPPN10 PGTW 021236

A. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI)

B. 02/1200Z

C. 12.89N

D. 124.70E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0706Z 12.97N 125.68E SSMI
02/0754Z 13.02N 125.32E SSMS
02/0854Z 13.02N 125.27E SSMS
02/0910Z 13.02N 125.27E MMHS
02/0951Z 13.02N 125.08E WIND
02/1017Z 13.05N 124.95E SSMS


MARTIN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#500 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:43 am

CI 6.5, almost STY
2019DEC02 121000 6.5 935.0 127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.78 -76.90 EYE/L 35 IR 60.4 13.00 -124.70 ARCHER HIM-8 24.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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