WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#521 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:00 am

Peak Delta on ADT 8.2.1

15.06 -74.26 --> 89.32*C (1030z)

Peak Delta on ADT 9.0

14.97 -73.73 --> 88.7*C (1040z)
Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#522 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:04 am

Legazpi station as of 11pm PhT (15Z): gust of 126 kph (35 m/s ; 68kts) and SLP near 979mb.
Virac station probably went down since it did not return hourly data after 10pm.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#523 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:04 am

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#525 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:46 am

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#526 Postby aspen » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:24 pm

I’m surprised how the Euro overhyped this one, but I wouldn’t call it a bust; it still got to Cat 4 status before landfall.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#527 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:25 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#528 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:29 pm

aspen wrote:I’m surprised how the Euro overhyped this one, but I wouldn’t call it a bust; it still got to Cat 4 status before landfall.

Yeah that's the way I look at it. The hyper-intense 900 mb storm didn't verify, but Kammuri was still strong enough to bring major impacts to the people of the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#529 Postby NotoSans » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:30 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#530 Postby edu2703 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:52 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#531 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:32 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#532 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:25 pm

Operational best track followed SATCON quite closely during the last two days.

Member Estimates

ADT: 937 hPa 125 knots Scene: CDO Date: DEC021140
CIMSS AMSU: 942 hPa 114 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 12020908
ATMS: 951.5 hPa 109.1 knots Date: 12020524
SSMIS: 943.9 hPa 113.7 knots Date: 12020524
CIRA ATMS: 938 hPa 119 knots Date: 12020434

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#533 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:14 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#534 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:42 pm

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WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH A 25-NM
OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. TY 29W IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PHILIPPINES, 21 NM
WEST OF LEGASPI. LEGASPI (98444) REPORTED A MSLP OF 965 MB
OBSERVATION AT 021700Z.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED ON SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION ARE PARTIALLY
NEGATING A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY KAMMURI IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 29W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO ITS TRACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE INLAND SEAS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 29W WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 90 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND
AFUM, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM HITS THE NORTHEAST
SURGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ACCELERATES WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW, AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PORTION JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO ALONG TRACK SPREAD AND ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TIMING.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#535 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:43 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#536 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:47 pm

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TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 2 December 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 2 December>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°05' (13.1°)
E122°40' (122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E120°20' (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 120 km (65 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20' (14.3°)
E118°35' (118.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E115°35' (115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 160 km (85 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30' (13.5°)
E114°20' (114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N8°30' (8.5°)
E113°20' (113.3°)
Direction and speed of movement S 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#537 Postby aspen » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:49 pm


Wow, that was a really good eyewall before landfall. I wonder what would’ve happened if it was like that earlier.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#538 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:37 pm

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#539 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:25 pm

Busay Bridge, Daraga, Albay.
(adjacent town of Legazpi city)
Image
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#540 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:16 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH A 20-NM
OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-6.0 (90-115 KNOTS) FROM
RJTD AND PGTW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY KAMMURI IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 29W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO ITS TRACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE INLAND SEAS WITH LOW SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, TY
29W WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS (25 KNOTS).
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48 WITH AN 80 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AROUND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM HITS THE
NORTHEAST SURGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ACCELERATES WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW, AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN ALONG
TRACK SPEED AFTER TY KAMMURI TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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