WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

JTWC went with JMA

94W INVEST 191125 0000 8.3N 157.7E WPAC 20 1004

Finnally they now are aligned.

Can't find it

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Wow a 50 mb drop in 24 hours, that quasi motion really boosts it

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 156.7E TO 12.5N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 154.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 154.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LITTLE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 250323Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LARGELY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING, WITH THE LLC TIGHTENING AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE BEFORE THE CIRCULATION FULLY
DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice banding and poleward outflow. Getting a bit of that look

[aspen]

Wow a 50 mb drop in 24 hours, that quasi motion really boosts it

https://i.imgur.com/Qm390JK.png

https://i.imgur.com/NOo8BsU.png

https://i.imgur.com/JaNS3Wo.png

I can’t believe how aggressive the Euro is at such a long-range, more so than the GFS (937 mbar at the same time).

[dexterlabio]

My issue now is that the ensemble members are not as enthusiastic compared to the deterministic/operational ones from GFS and ECMWF so I think there is a chance that the sub 930mb doom scenario could still bust.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 09.2N 153.5E POOR
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 11.5N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

My issue now is that the ensemble members are not as enthusiastic compared to the deterministic/operational ones from GFS and ECMWF so I think there is a chance that the sub 930mb doom scenario could still bust.

There’s a very good chance the 930 mbar Philippine landfall will turn out to be a model fantasy, regardless of the difference between the ensemble and operational runs because it’s still so far out (a week or more). However, a bust like Fung-Wong can definitely be ruled out, since 94W should be classified within the next 24 hours with plenty of time to strengthen.

[cycloneye]

If this becomes a named storm this November then this would be the 6th named storm this November. October 2013 had 7 named storms.

Next name is Kammuri. Kammuri doesn't have a typhoon title yet, can Kammuri reach the stars this time?

Is now clear this will be Typhoon down the road.

[dexterlabio]

I don't want to be political here but the Philippines will have twice the challenge next week if the doom forecast comes into fruition as they also need to shelter the Southeast Asian Games delegates and make sure that everyone of them will be safe.

[dexterlabio]

There’s a very good chance the 930 mbar Philippine landfall will turn out to be a model fantasy, regardless of the difference between the ensemble and operational runs because it’s still so far out (a week or more). However, a bust like Fung-Wong can definitely be ruled out, since 94W should be classified within the next 24 hours with plenty of time to strengthen.

Which also brings me to this question: why do operational and ensemble runs sometimes differ from each other, I always thought the operation run is like the mean of the ensemble runs so they shouldn't be too different.

[Highteeld]

Here's what the Hi-Res Euro output is showing for 94W

[1900hurricane]

Depends on if you're referring to the ensemble members or ensemble means. The means are inherently not going to be as intense since it's an average of many members. As for the individual members, they have a downscaled resolution compared to the operational run, so they might not have the capability to show pressures as low, especially with smaller compact systems as most of guidance is indicating 94W to be. For what it is worth, I'm seeing plenty of stronger ensemble members across most major suites all things considered.







All times valid 00Z December 2nd.

[Highteeld]

Healthy convection today around 94W --



Regarding future steering currents --

[aspen]

Here's what the Hi-Res Euro output is showing for 94W

https://i.imgur.com/qARwege.png

You don’t see 917 mbar from the Euro very often. The last time it was that aggressive was with Hagibis, and we all know how that turned out.

[1900hurricane]

0956Z ScatSat data showed the parent disturbance rotating up and out of the NEMT with some early indications of a surface circulation trying to close off as winds start to come around down the NEMT to the SW of the disturbance. Since then, 94W has continued to rotate around the top of the trough, establishing its identity all the more. It's hard to tell for sure, but given satellite trends, 94W may be developing into a tropical cyclone right about now.





 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1199004705587941376



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1199006876199014401

[aspen]

The 12z Euro run has an extremely aggressive RI forecast, with 94W dropping from 973 mbar to 929 mbar (a 44 mbar drop!) between Friday and Saturday.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC renumbers for 18Z.

29W TWENTYNINE 191125 1800 9.2N 151.0E WPAC 25 1002