SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:49 pm

This appears to be the area La Reunion is monitoring as well.

91S INVEST 191127 1800 7.0S 55.0E SHEM 15 0
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:23 am, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Invest 91S

#2 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:41 am

Most models develop this into a TD by tomorrow and have it make landfall in northern Madagascar by late Saturday/early Sunday. We could see a hurricane-equivalent system out of this in a few days.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Disturbance 02 (Invest 91S)

#3 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:26 am

12z GFS takes this a little further west, where it misses the northern tip of Madagascar and enters a pocket of higher SSTs/OHC with a maximum potential intensity of 880-890 mbar and >150 kt. While 91S is unlikely to get close to that (the models are pretty lukewarm on intensity estimates), we could still see a moderately significant system out of this. It already seems to be a TD as of the 12z best track update.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Disturbance 02 (Invest 91S)

#4 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:07 pm

18z GFS is more aggressive (<970 mbar) and keeps 91S within the NW Madagascar hot spot.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SWIO: Depression (02S)

#5 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:34 am

5Z ASCAT had 40kt winds, yet no upgrade from La Reunion. Wake up, people!
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

#6 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:15 pm

Belna may also be gearing up for a phase of RI. The CDO has become larger and much more impressive over the last 12 hours, comparable to that of Ambali before it started ERI. Microwave imagery also shows a forming eyewall as some of the experimental intensity estimations put it near 65 kt.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH022020
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

#7 Postby Astromanía » Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:45 pm

Due to its track and expected intensification this system is very dangerous as if the people in southeast Africa didn't have enough with that imperactive last season
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:00 pm

This one looks ready to go off
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:35 pm

Now a Cat 1 with 1-minute sustained winds of 65 kt.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby aspen » Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:58 pm

0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
TorSkk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 am

Re: SWIO: Belna - Severe Tropical Storm

#11 Postby TorSkk » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:58 am

We may very well see another VITC.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Belna - Severe Tropical Storm

#12 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:33 am

Belma’s eye is appearing as it moves closer to the hot spot off the NW Madagascar coast. Rapid intensification could be starting soon, either today or tomorrow.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:24 am

:uarrow: It’s starting now, actually. 12z best track is now up to 100 kt.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:31 am

Microwave pass from a few hours ago shows a closed and very well defined eyewall: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 070910.GIF
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests