SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#41 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:34 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:However, the windshear is rising sharply and it may have begun to weaken.

That’s probably why the eye has begun to cool despite the apparent lack of an EWRC in microwave imagery.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:00 pm

Meteo France now estimates Ambali to be the equivalent of a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale (120 kt 10-minute is roughly 137 kt 1-minute). Here is a loop of the extreme rapid intensification starting at 10Z yesterday:

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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:10 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I can positively say I've never seen a D5.0/24 hr before.

What about Patricia?

D4.0/24 hr from TAFB from 2345Z October 21st to 2345Z October 22nd (3.0 to 7.0) is the biggest for that one (SAB went 3.0 to 6.5 for D3.5/24 hr in the same period). D5.0/24 hours either means something unprecedented is happening or (more likely in my opinion) someone messed up on at least one of the two endpoints.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:18 pm

First visible of the day:

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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:20 pm

Hmm... Best track is now down to 135 kts
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:28 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Hmm... Best track is now down to 135 kts

They just HAD to pull that on us last minute...

I’m still going with 140 kt. We all know it was easily a Cat 5.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I can positively say I've never seen a D5.0/24 hr before.

What about Patricia?

D4.0/24 hr from TAFB from 2345Z October 21st to 2345Z October 22nd (3.0 to 7.0) is the biggest for that one (SAB went 3.0 to 6.5 for D3.5/24 hr in the same period). D5.0/24 hours either means something unprecedented is happening or (more likely in my opinion) someone messed up on at least one of the two endpoints.


Yeah I think it was more of the forecasters playing catch up then it strengthening that quick in 24 hours. Still though, this storm really took off.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:31 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Hmm... Best track is now down to 135 kts

They just HAD to pull that on us last minute...

I’m still going with 140 kt. We all know it was easily a Cat 5.

Yeah I'm not sure why they changed it
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:02 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Hmm... Best track is now down to 135 kts

They just HAD to pull that on us last minute...

I’m still going with 140 kt. We all know it was easily a Cat 5.

Yeah I'm not sure why they changed it

Simple: they were playing catch up so badly that by the time they decided to call it a Cat 5, it was already weakening, so they lowered its intensity.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#50 Postby Highteeld » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:08 pm

JTWC will go 135 kt on their first T 7.0 sometimes too
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#51 Postby Highteeld » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:11 pm

I did not thing Banding Features could be added unless DT>MET?


H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR
BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.MET YIELDS A 3.5 AND PT A 4.0 BUT ARE
NOT REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 5 NM. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO RI.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#52 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:13 pm

Highteeld wrote:JTWC will go 135 kt on their first T 7.0 sometimes too

But this is their second T 7.0.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#53 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:23 pm

REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 62.1E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 642
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 060000Z REVEALED A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM
WRAPPING INTO A 5 NM EYE PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION PLACEMENT. THE INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS HEDGING JUST UNDER
THE PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0
(140 KNOTS). TC 03S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS),
A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30C) AND EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT WILL LIKELY TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 060000Z AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING, WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP AS THE
EYE HAS STARTED TO FILL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MODERATELY
FAVORABLE. BETWEEN TAU 12 TO 24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A COL DEVELOPS, DRASTICALLY INCREASING THE RATE
OF DECAY AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, MODELS POORLY RESOLVE THE COMPLEX
INNER-CORE DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, PARTICULARLY SMALL SYSTEMS
SUCH AS THIS, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DECAY MORE
RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A VERY LARGE
SPREAD IN TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS THE SMALL SIZE OF TC 03S AND
ITS PROXIMITY TO TC 02S FURTHER COMPLICATES THE ABILITY TO FORECAST
THIS STORM. THIS NOTED MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
UPDATES.//
NNNN

It is unreasonable to go 135kt while the PGTW, KNES, and FMEE Dvorak current intensity estimates of T 7.0.
I would go 140kt at 060000Z and 150kt on its peak intensity at 052100Z.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#54 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:32 pm

Impressive! Could Ambali's RI be one of the fastest ever observed? Maybe a record for the SW Indian Ocean?
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#55 Postby Highteeld » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:44 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:
Highteeld wrote:JTWC will go 135 kt on their first T 7.0 sometimes too

But this is their second T 7.0.

2nd T 7.0 or 2nd advisory with T 7.0? If it's the latter, then I have no idea why they'd change the intensity (not that either reason makes much sense to me)
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#56 Postby Highteeld » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:46 pm

Sure looked like a cat 5

Image
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#57 Postby Highteeld » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:51 pm

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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#58 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:58 pm

Cloud tops are rapidly warming. Looks like Ambali is weakening. May weaken just about as fast as it strengthened. Very small cyclones can strengthen quickly and weaken just as quickly.
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#59 Postby Astromanía » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:02 pm

I hope they change their minds in post season analysis, tho I doubt. Anyway for being the first named storm of the season it was incredible how it strengthen so fast and the peak intensity it reached
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Re: SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

#60 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:12 am

Highteeld wrote:Sure looked like a cat 5

https://i.imgur.com/MyONI3U.png


Bizarre image, it looks like a Northern Hemisphere cane - looks anticlockwise to me.
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