WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (98W)

#21 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:30 am

Cat 4? But remember HWRF hyped Kammuri to be a cat 5, only turning out to be an unofficial 1 minute minimal cat 4, due to delay after delay in consolidating.

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (98W)

#22 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:02 am

Looks like the LLCC is still partially exposed, but this may be a TS now based on ASCAT passes this night.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (98W)

#23 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:12 am

Next name's "Phanfone".

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TD
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 21 December 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 21 December>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°00' (6.0°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)


98W INVEST 191221 1200 5.7N 141.0E WPAC 20 1002
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 30W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:06 pm

30W THIRTY 191221 1800 6.1N 139.7E WPAC 30 1002
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 30W

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:32 pm

Christmas typhoon landfall, and intensifying while traversing the islands

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 30W

#26 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 21, 2019 3:50 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXPLOSIVE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OFFSET
NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTLY-EXPOSED
LLC IN THE 211618Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30KTS
FROM PGTW AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS. ANALYSES
INDICATE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25KT)
RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF THAT IS MOSTLY
OFFSET BY ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS AND VERY
WARM (>30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED AXIS
OVER 20N LATITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 30W WILL TRACK MORE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE STR REORIENTS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE ISLAND OF LEYTE, PHILIPPINES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL DRAG ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS,
ACROSS THE SULU SEA AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, IMPEDED
ONLY BY ISLAND INTERACTION, REACHING 85KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POSSIBLE ERRATIC STORM
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 30W

#27 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:52 pm

I’m surprised the JTWC is going with a Cat 2 typhoon after a Philippines landfall in the SCS...in December.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 30W

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:14 pm

aspen wrote:I’m surprised the JTWC is going with a Cat 2 typhoon after a Philippines landfall in the SCS...in December.


Pretty low latitude. Impact of cold surge could be minimal
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 30W

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:53 pm

aspen wrote:I’m surprised the JTWC is going with a Cat 2 typhoon after a Philippines landfall in the SCS...in December.

It's pretty rare, but not unprecedented. I ran a script to parse through JTWC for every system in the South China Sea (using 99ºE and 120ºE as my bounds) to make it to at least 85 kt and came up with 11 instances. A couple, like Durian '06 entered the region as a weakening system after a Philippine landfall, but the most recent was just in 2017. Only first best track point to meet the criteria is shown.

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:28 pm

Image

TS 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 22 December 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 22 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°10' (8.2°)
E138°20' (138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°50' (8.8°)
E136°25' (136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 23 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°35' (9.6°)
E133°40' (133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30' (10.5°)
E128°10' (128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°40' (11.7°)
E122°25' (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10' (13.2°)
E117°50' (117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35' (14.6°)
E115°20' (115.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 520 km (280 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:36 pm

Worth noting every Visayas storm since Haiyan ended up weaker than expected... but let's see. Not a great Christmas gift :cry:
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:55 pm

Already at 135E, should be given the local Philippine name 'Ursula'

TS 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 22 December 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 22 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20' (9.3°)
E135°00' (135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:56 pm

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:23 pm

We'll see if this HWRF simulation will pan out. Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:14 am

Seems to be organizing nicely now.

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:25 am

Utor (2006) would probably be a near-perfect analog for Phanfone.

On a side note... we just want everyone to enjoy Noche Buena. Ursula isn't doing us any favors.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:14 pm

Image

STS 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 23 December 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 23 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°30' (10.5°)
E128°55' (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10' (11.2°)
E126°55' (126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°55' (11.9°)
E124°10' (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°05' (13.1°)
E119°25' (119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20' (14.3°)
E117°05' (117.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55' (14.9°)
E115°55' (115.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 28 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E113°00' (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:09 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (PHANFONE)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF SUSTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WITH ONLY A LOWER
RESOLUTION 231715Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT POSITIONING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TS 30W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
DECREASING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAUS 12 TO
48 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES.
B. TS 30W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE ALLOWING TS 30W TO
INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE
LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 CAUSING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 65 KTS BY TAU 24. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48 THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY OFFSET THE LAND
INTERACTION ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY. ONCE TS 30W
EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT WILL INCREASE TO A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 80 KTS AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLICATED
NATURE OF THE LAND INTERACTION IN THIS FORECAST THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT
IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SPREAD INCREASES SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS TIGHT, THEREFORE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DECREASING
SSTS, INCREASING VWS AND RELATIVELY COOL, DRY AIR. AS A RESULT,
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY, REACHING 30 KTS BY TAU
120. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A COL
BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND A LESS PRONOUNCED STR TO THE WEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT THE 23/12Z FORECAST.
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:09 pm

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:26 pm

2019DEC23 183000 4.0 989.1 65.0 4.0 4.0 3.6 MW Adjst OFF OFF OFF OFF -79.57 -77.59 UNIFRM N/A -1.0 11.00 -129.28 FCST HIM-8 18.5 MWinit=3.6/3.6/3.6
2019DEC23 191000 4.1 987.4 67.4 4.1 4.1 3.6 MW Adjst OFF OFF OFF OFF -76.78 -77.63 UNIFRM N/A -1.0 11.04 -129.13 FCST HIM-8 18.7 MWinit=3.6/3.6/3.6
2019DEC23 194000 4.1 987.4 67.4 4.1 4.1 3.6 MW Adjst OFF OFF OFF OFF -81.59 -78.55 UNIFRM N/A -1.0 11.07 -129.01 FCST HIM-8 18.8 MWinit=3.6/3.6/3.6
2019DEC23 201000 4.2 984.8 69.8 4.2 4.2 3.7 MW Adjst OFF OFF OFF OFF -81.87 -80.58 UNIFRM N/A 13.1 10.94 -128.98 FCST HIM-8 18.7 MWinit=3.7/3.6/3.6
2019DEC23 203000 4.2 984.8 69.8 4.2 4.2 3.8 MW Adjst OFF OFF OFF OFF -81.45 -81.12 UNIFRM N/A 13.1 10.96 -128.90 FCST HIM-8 18.8 MWinit=3.8/3.6/3.6
2019DEC23 210000 4.3 983.1 72.2 4.3 4.3 3.8 MW Adjst OFF OFF OFF OFF -82.29 -81.38 UNIFRM N/A 13.1 10.99 -128.78 FCST HIM-8 18.9 MWinit=3.8/3.6/3.6
2019DEC23 213000 4.3 983.1 72.2 4.3 4.3 3.8 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -83.15 -81.69 UNIFRM N/A 33.4 11.02 -128.67 FCST HIM-8 19.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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