WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:54 pm

Still forecast a cat 3 over Sibuyan Sea

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#42 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:13 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Still forecast a cat 3 over Sibuyan Sea

[img]https://i.imgur.com/xFvy70.png[/ig]

[im]https://i.imgur.com/LxC6KTE.png[/img]


Hmmm. Could be direct hit for Boracay
https://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay/?cam=boracay_hd
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#43 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:53 pm

Image

GUIUAN radar seems to be mulfunctioning at the wrong time ugh
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:08 pm

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#45 Postby aspen » Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:44 pm

Officially a 70 kt Cat 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if it makes a run for 80-85 kt before landfall.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#46 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:53 pm

Has another 6 hours till landfall?

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#47 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:21 pm

Guiuan radar

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#48 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:01 am

TY 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 December 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 24 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°55' (10.9°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#49 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:25 am

It has developed a tiny eye (pinhole?) that is also seen in IR imagery.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#50 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:07 am

A weather station in Guiuan, Eastern Samar recorded sustained winds of 64.8 kph and a SLP of 990.8 mb at 3pm PhT(07Z). The station recorded a lower SLP of 977.4 mb at 4pm PhT(08Z) (~13mb drop in 1 hour).

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#51 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:36 am

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#52 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:02 am

Could be at least 95kts now,perhaps even a Cat3?
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#53 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:34 am

Looks like the radar site at least just broke into the eye. I wonder if they have a pressure reading there. For what it's worth, the KZC expected pressure given JTWC's 80 kt intensity at 06Z is 978-979 mb.

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#54 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:54 am

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#55 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:08 am

Looks like the core is moving back over water now within the Philippines. I may thread the needle through some of the islands.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#56 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:16 am

Eye/center is now passing over Biliran island and northern parts of Leyte Province, and is about to move back again over water. Phanfone could continue strengthening again. The structure of the typhoon remains rather impressive despite having moved over land.

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#57 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:51 am

The Euro bombs this out to 963 mbar by 00z Friday. I’m surprised it’s that aggressive with a storm this late in the season.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#58 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:02 am

Mid cat 2

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WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (PHANFONE)
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 30W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A
PERSISTENT 17 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A COLD, CONVECTIVE
EYEWALL. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KTS,
BETWEEN THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KTS) AND THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.5 (102 KTS) GIVEN BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER LAND, BASED ON
THE MAINTAINED STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE WATERS
WITHIN THE PHILIPPINES ARCHIPELAGO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TY 30W HAS ACCELERATED
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 36, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY OFFSET THE LAND INTERACTION, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 90 KTS. SMALL TRACK VARIATIONS
TAKING THE SYSTEM MORE OR LESS OVER LAND WILL IMPACT THE INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 24. ONCE TY 30W EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT
WILL INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 95 KTS AT TAU 48. DUE TO THE
COMPLICATED NATURE OF THE LAND INTERACTION, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. HWRF,
COAMPS-GFS, AND ECMWF INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE 70%
PROBABILITY CURVE; HOWEVER, THE GFS INTENSITY SOLUTION IS
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TOWARDS HWRF AND
ECMWF IN RECOGNITION OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK
CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DECREASING SSTS
(26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS), INCREASING VWS AND RELATIVELY COOL, DRY
AIR FROM A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. AS
A RESULT, TY 30W WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FURTHERMORE,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A COL BETWEEN THE STEERING
STR AND A LESS PRONOUNCED STR TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT AND ALONG TRACK SPEED
AFTER TAU 72. ECMWF AND NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAIN A MUCH HIGHER
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS WELL THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN, CURVE THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD WITHOUT A SHARP TURN, AND GALWEM AND UKMET CURVE THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK NOW CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT TAU 120. AS TY 30W WEAKENS, IT WILL BECOME
SUBJECT TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE THROUGH TAU 96, WHICH IS THE CAUSE OF THE BRIEF DUE WESTWARD
MOTION. HOWEVER, AFTERWARDS, DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA, STEERING THE WEAKENING TY 30W
NORTHWESTWARD AT TAU 120.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#59 Postby cebuboy » Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:27 am

Right now, we feel some gusty winds with a bit of rain. I live somewhere north of Cebu. This will hopefully over tomorrow. The track forecast is a bit accurate.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#60 Postby Highteeld » Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:51 am

30W PHANFONE 191224 1200 11.4N 124.8E WPAC 90 972
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