ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267370471114158080

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267370471114158080

hmm that was several hours ago it looks like on current loop to be right over the radar which is on the coast. ..

I wonder how he found a static link to the radar site. they changed it and now it is running .PHP crap and all my animators are messed up.

[cycloneye]

80%/80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnants of
eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, is located over the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico. This disturbance is forecast to move
northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche
later today or tonight where environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive to support development, and a new tropical
depression is likely to form within within the next day or so. The
system is then forecast to drift west or west-southwest over the
southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[wxman57]

Models still indicate that this system will stay in the southern BoC and move back inland Thursday morning, where it dissipates. 24 hours later or so, the EC & GFS develop another low in the SW Gulf that tracks toward Texas. Could be two separate storms in the Gulf this week.

[northjaxpro]

Models still indicate that this system will stay in the southern BoC and move back inland Thursday morning, where it dissipates. 24 hours later or so, the EC & GFS develop another low in the SW Gulf that tracks toward Texas. Could be two separate storms in the Gulf this week.

Yes indeed 57. It could happen, two seperate cyclones, especially after checking this morning's 06Z GFS run.

[jaxfladude]

How strong is the second one that model(s) saying it may be?

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[Aric Dunn]

How strong is the second one that model(s) saying it may be?

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GEFS and EPS are not in agreement. timing, upper environment are different.

EPS has some moderate hurricanes.

the way it looks like now is that there will be less of a cyclonic loop and may stay over water without any secondary circ developing.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS moves current Low (93L.) very slowly W/SW into Mexico in 36hours, then develops another vort in the NW Caribbean by Thursday, and moves it N/NW toward LA and TX coast , making landfall late 06/08 or early 06/09 as a strong TS at least. Current 06Z GFS has it deepening to 996 mb this run.
Lots of variables to watch here. There will be more changes to come with later runs I am sure!

[Shell Mound]

This has the potential to become a major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, given the likelihood of dual outflow channels setting up. A cutoff low may be situated southwest of the system, ventilating the western flank, while ridging off to the east imparts outflow on the northern side. Given that the system will be entering a very favourable environment of low VWS and above-average OHC/SSTs, it will likely track toward the eastern flank of the ECENS guidance. Therefore, expect models to start to shift away from TX and toward LA/W MS. New Orleans could expect a Cat-3+ if the worst-case scenario verifies.

[TheStormExpert]

This has the potential to become a major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, given the likelihood of dual outflow channels setting up. A cutoff low may be situated southwest of the system, ventilating the western flank, while ridging off to the east imparts outflow on the northern side. Given that the system will be entering a very favourable environment of low VWS and above-average OHC/SSTs, it will likely track toward the eastern flank of the ECENS guidance. Therefore, expect models to start to shift away from TX and toward LA/W MS. New Orleans could expect a Cat-3+ if the worst-case scenario verifies.

Right now I'm being more conservative considering it's early-June but I wouldn't be surprised looking at Euro Ensembles over the last several days.

[GCANE]

An upper-level vort has popped up, aka 355K PV anomaly.
This may put a lid on development.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Big monsoonal mess, classic early-June development.

[TheStormExpert]

Models still indicate that this system will stay in the southern BoC and move back inland Thursday morning, where it dissipates. 24 hours later or so, the EC & GFS develop another low in the SW Gulf that tracks toward Texas. Could be two separate storms in the Gulf this week.

Yes, the 00z Euro indicates that 93L/Remnants of Amanda will become a brief TS and quickly move back into Mexico. While the NW Gulf Coast threat will become Dolly. At this rate it won't be long before we hit the name Isaias.

[TheStormExpert]

Big monsoonal mess, classic early-June development.

https://i.imgur.com/mjii8qk.jpg

Shouldn't have any trouble quickly redeveloping in the BoC.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting setup over the next few days.

At first glance, one might assume 93L retrogrades over the BoC, intensifies, and hits Texas.

However, seems looking at the Euro that 93L dissipates over Temuco after landfall. A tropical wave moves into the BoC, absorbs the remnants of 93L (Cristobal), and becomes its own separate entity (Dolly).

Models struggle across the board with these complex scenarios.

Very, very rainy across the GOMEX the next few days.

[NDG]

Updated saved radar loop, coc is about to get back over water.

[Shell Mound]

This has the potential to become a major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, given the likelihood of dual outflow channels setting up. A cutoff low may be situated southwest of the system, ventilating the western flank, while ridging off to the east imparts outflow on the northern side. Given that the system will be entering a very favourable environment of low VWS and above-average OHC/SSTs, it will likely track toward the eastern flank of the ECENS guidance. Therefore, expect models to start to shift away from TX and toward LA/W MS. New Orleans could expect a Cat-3+ if the worst-case scenario verifies.

Additionally, note that more than half of the 00Z EC ensembles do not show landfall in Mexico, but keep the centre offshore and track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. I wouldn’t necessarily trust the deterministic EC (or GFS) runs at this point. I think that 93L (ex-Amanda) is already sufficiently organised and ready for regeneration within the next day and a half. The short-term intensity is likely to be stronger than most of the model guidance indicates, given the cohesiveness of the MLC while over land in the presence of very high PWATs. This is much better organised than anyone anticipated at this stage. Therefore, one system seems more likely to evolve than two and stay over water—that is, the BoC and the GoM—during the next five to seven days. I’m thinking that prospective Cristobal could very well imitate Michael (2018) and be much stronger than forecast at the time of its impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 93, 202006010600, 70, ANAL, , , , , , 2, 26, 2, , 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , NHC, SRS, SRS, , , 120, , b, Buoy 42055 nw LLCC rptd 25.5 kt at 4-m elev.

[Buck]

Sheesh! A lot to catch up on for June 1st!

I’m guessing with the NHC’s wording in the latest update about the official start of the season, Postel’s tweet and the fact that these are “remnants” of Amanda and she didn’t maintain any TC status on her journey, this will be Cristobal if named, correct? Or are we still just speculating until then?

[Aric Dunn]

Updated saved radar loop, coc is about to get back over water.

https://i.imgur.com/e7tfAMq.gif

well being that it is pretty much right on top of the Radar site we can see the individual cell motion and the center is pretty clear even on this outdated radar.

it is right on the coast.