ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

NHC now has this as a cat 2 by the end of the forecast. A major is certainly on the table here.

[wx98]

Cat 2 forecast at days 4 and 5:

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12
Location: 11.9°N 34.6°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank God this will be re-curving out to sea... Hopefully it won't hit Bermuda, but it should go east of there.

[HuracanMaster]

Disorganized this morning equals more west,
I dont think this will follow the nhc track so soon. That recurvature north will be MUCH later....

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[abajan]

Disorganized this morning equals more west,
I dont think this will follow the nhc track so soon. That recurvature north will be MUCH later....

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It may re-curve later, but will likely still pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

[SFLcane]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

[Loveweather12]

What is your thinking ? Future seems complexed

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

[HuracanMaster]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

Latest GFS has this 36hrs out as a 990ml top end TS, as it currently stands I dont buy it.

Such a broad circulation will take some time to consolidate. An additional day or two could mean dissaster for the leewards.

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[TheStormExpert]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

Why not? All indications for the past few days are that this will likely be a fish storm with little if any land threat.

[LarryWx]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

Why not? All indications for the past few days are that this will likely be a fish storm with little if any land threat.

To be fair, “likely” doesn’t equal “100%”. I think it is now at about 95% likely myself, which may be about where he and yourself are now. I totally agree with your 2nd statement. So, I sort of agree with both of you.

Imo, it is still too far out in time, especially with the complexities caused by other systems to be any higher yet although it is going in that direction. Right now, I’d feel pretty comfy to lay $1000 on OTS to make $100.

[HuracanMaster]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

Why not? All indications for the past few days are that this will likely be a fish storm with little if any land threat.

Gfs has this already wrapped up and on its way to top ts in the next 24hrs. As it currently stands its taking a bit longer than that to tighten such a broad circulation.

No doubt it get there but the longer it takes more threat to land.

Also when this get going its going to be big.

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[aspen]

The NHC in their 11am discussion mentions SHIPs has a 50% chance for a phase of RI (+65 kt in the next 3 days). I think Teddy is going to go nuclear once it finally consolidates and reaches warmer SSTs in 2-4 days.

[aspen]

I don't think we can rule out land impacts from TD20/Teddy at this point. Yes, it is going to recurve, but where is it going from there? I say that because not every model takes it out to the northern subtropical Atlantic where it dies off. The CMC shows a collapse of steering currents after a week out, and the ICON tries to move it slightly west after stalling around 25N/60W. I don't think this is a clear-cut 100% OTS storm despite the likelihood of it missing the Lesser Antilles. This will also have implications on the next wave coming, because if Teddy moves slowly for a while and leaves a big weakness in the ridge, then that wave could be sucked north.

[MarioProtVI]

I don't think we can rule out land impacts from TD20/Teddy at this point. Yes, it is going to recurve, but where is it going from there? I say that because not every model takes it out to the northern subtropical Atlantic where it dies off. The CMC shows a collapse of steering currents after a week out, and the ICON tries to move it slightly west after stalling around 25N/60W. I don't think this is a clear-cut 100% OTS storm despite the likelihood of it missing the Lesser Antilles. This will also have implications on the next wave coming, because if Teddy moves slowly for a while and leaves a big weakness in the ridge, then that wave could be sucked north.

Ironically if the steering currents weaken as Teddy is a strong storm up there that’ll continue to pile on the ACE. Assuming it doesn’t upwell itself to death (unlikely but this is just a mere speculation).


In the meantime, nice burst over the center of 20L. Still needs work on the northern side but this burst might what gets it to TS later tonight.

[plasticup]

Not sure why anyone is saying "fish" when every model brings it within a couple hundred miles of Bermuda.

[FireRat]

The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA and HCCA solutions.

That's an excerpt from the latest (11 AM) NHC forecast discussion for TD20. Things regarding furure track do seem to hinge on the storm's strength and how fast it can intensify. There is also a little bit of a westward trend in model forecasts, especially coming from the HWRF. I wouldn't turn my back on this one yet, there's still a small chance that it could keep trending more and more west.

A weaker storm or slower to strengthen storm will go more west. Hopefully Teddy gets his act together quick and blossoms into a strong hurricane which would mean he'd go poleward.

[LarryWx]

Not sure why anyone is saying "fish" when every model brings it within a couple hundred miles of Bermuda.

OTS would probably be better terminology in relation to the CONUS and thus I changed my wording. I say 95% chance of OTS with Bermuda having a higher chance to be affected than the CONUS as of now. A Bermuda hit would still be OTS in relation to the CONUS as it is way out in the ocean. But it is obviously not a fish storm if they're hit.

[CaribJam]

Are there any interactions taking place between TD20 and 97L?

And if so, what are the possible impact on either?

[aspen]

Are there any interactions taking place between TD20 and 97L?

And if so, what are the possible impact on either?

They still might be kinda “linked” via that large monsoonal gyre, but TD20 continues to break away form that and regardless whether or not it develops, 97L will be moving further away and will dissipate in a few days.

A greater connection could keep TD20 a little more east and have it recurve further east as well. Less interaction will mean it gets further west, but it’s still going to recurve away from the LAs.

[CrazyC83]

If a ridge tries to build in south of Nova Scotia, it could certainly go west in the longer term. Some models seemed to hint on that. Regardless, it's way too far out to be sure.