ATL: GAMMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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hurricanehunter69
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
The NHC forecast track goes out 6 days through Wednesday, and still has Gamma sitting in the BOC. Big question is.....what will the synoptic/steering pattern look like in days 7 through 9?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
wxman57 wrote:It will be battling with quite dry air through at least Monday, and probably Tuesday. That should keep a lid on strengthening.
Dry air when it approaches the Gulf? The WCar looks very moist on Tropical Tidbits WV imagery.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
Outflow/banding in all quadrants with a nice and moist environment on water vapor imagery. There are also some new convective bursts closer to the CoC.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
TXNT26 KNES 021804
TCSNTL
A. 25L (NONAME)
B. 02/1735Z
C. 18.9N
D. 85.2W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 WHITE BANDING WAS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC WHICH MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0. THE MET AGREES AND IS ALSO EQUAL
TO 2.0. THE PT IS EQUAL TO 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT AROUND THE LLCC POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SAMBUCCI
TCSNTL
A. 25L (NONAME)
B. 02/1735Z
C. 18.9N
D. 85.2W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 WHITE BANDING WAS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC WHICH MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0. THE MET AGREES AND IS ALSO EQUAL
TO 2.0. THE PT IS EQUAL TO 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT AROUND THE LLCC POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SAMBUCCI
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Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
aspen wrote:wxman57 wrote:It will be battling with quite dry air through at least Monday, and probably Tuesday. That should keep a lid on strengthening.
Dry air when it approaches the Gulf? The WCar looks very moist on Tropical Tidbits WV imagery.
Dry air in the Gulf that will be entrained into the center Sunday/Monday. Look at the 400-700 mb relative humidity charts in the Precipitation/Moisture section of TT. More dry air flowing across the Gulf by next Thursday.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
Buoy 42056 (located well north of 25L's estimated center) is reporting a sustained wind of 27 kt with a falling pressure of 1006.4 mb. The central pressure has likely fallen to 1003-1004 mb.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
wxman57 wrote:aspen wrote:wxman57 wrote:It will be battling with quite dry air through at least Monday, and probably Tuesday. That should keep a lid on strengthening.
Dry air when it approaches the Gulf? The WCar looks very moist on Tropical Tidbits WV imagery.
Dry air in the Gulf that will be entrained into the center Sunday/Monday. Look at the 400-700 mb relative humidity charts in the Precipitation/Moisture section of TT. More dry air flowing across the Gulf by next Thursday.
http://wxman57.com/images/dryair.png
How much dry air Gamma gobbles up is really going to depend if it makes landfall as soon as the 12z GFS shows, or if it intensifies quicker and stays over water longer, because the latter scenario would lead to a compact moisture pocket. It’ll still succumb to dry air and shear eventually, but exactly when and how resistant it’ll be is all dependent on what Gamma does between now and tomorrow afternoon.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
blob alert!
One little eddy has been pulled under the convection burst so will be watching to see if that centers the storm.
Moisture envelope of a system without shear can remain pretty stable from outflow precip remoistening the lower levels. Next big shear event occurs with the storm north of the dry Yucatan doesn't it? Does appear the models are factoring in the dry gulf environment and keeping the system shallow at this time.
One little eddy has been pulled under the convection burst so will be watching to see if that centers the storm.
Moisture envelope of a system without shear can remain pretty stable from outflow precip remoistening the lower levels. Next big shear event occurs with the storm north of the dry Yucatan doesn't it? Does appear the models are factoring in the dry gulf environment and keeping the system shallow at this time.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
Roxanne comes to mind... not for the potential Yucatan landfall but for the potential of meandering in the southern GOM for a while.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
Looking very, very good for a system that's less than 12 hours old. I'm going to predict recon finds 45 kt/1002 mbar TS Gamma when it arrives. If it starts going more NNW and doesn't outrun its anticyclone, it could become a hurricane prior to landfall.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
aspen wrote:Looking very, very good for a system that's less than 12 hours old. I'm going to predict recon finds 45 kt/1002 mbar TS Gamma when it arrives. If it starts going more NNW and doesn't outrun its anticyclone, it could become a hurricane prior to landfall.
https://i.imgur.com/m7P1yZo.jpg
They are measuring 1002mb and they aren't even at the center yet
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lrak
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
It is spectacular....it's huge compared to all the other GOM systems this season. Poor "beta fish"
Looks like good surf for a while though
Looks like good surf for a while though
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AKA karl
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My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
41 kt FL + 35 kt SFMR. MSLP down to at least 1001 mb. Should be upgraded to TS Gamma shortly.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
Watch out folks, we have a Gamma ray incoming 
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
I would set it at 40 kt from the SFMR reading earlier and the pressure drop.
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lrak
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056 this buoy is showing Gusts to 42mph
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AKA karl
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-FIVE -Tropical Depression
Wow, 999 mbar extrap already! Winds are probably only 35-40 kt but this is still a stronger storm than I anticipated, and if Dmax is conductive, Gamma’s pressure could drop even more during tonight’s flight.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: GAMMA - Tropical Storm
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2
Location: 18.8°N 85.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2
Location: 18.8°N 85.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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