ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Not sure how strong this gets but I think we will have a TS at some point tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Code Red 70%/70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred
miles northeast of Bermuda.

Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

[SFLcane]

Wow 70% 70% this is going fast folks!

[gatorcane]

Code Red 70%/70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred
miles northeast of Bermuda.

Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

[northjaxpro]

I am not surprised at all at 70% development. The next 3-5 days, 95L will be moving in tandem with an anticyclone, which will keep decent upper level over it for potential development. Plus, 95L will be traversing over and near the very warm ssts just south of Cuba this weekend. This area features the warmest water in the North Atlantic basin currently. I actually am expecting this system to attain Tropical Storm status as early as Saturday evening near the western tip of Cuba.

[NDG]

LLC is not as well organized as it was last night. To me it is a sign that is reorganizing.

[gfsperpendicular]

LLC is not as well organized as it was last night. To me it is a sign that is reorganizing.

https://i.imgur.com/8AiBWbL.jpg

ASCAT-C just one hour later tells an entirely different story.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, that ASCAT shows a much better defined LLC, which now is just west of Grand Cayman Island.

[AutoPenalti]

This is intensifying in a hurry.

[Weatherboy1]

Code Red 70%/70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred
miles northeast of Bermuda.

Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

https://i.postimg.cc/5y4cW89N/two-atl-5d0.png

Looking at the setup, modeling, time of year etc and a slightly modified version of that 1980s one-hit-wonder song comes to mind “C’mon Irene...”

[sunnyday]

When forecastersare discussing weather, i I would appreciate it so much if they would specify the west coast or the east coast instead of simply saying South Florida.

[ElectricStorm]

The way this is coming together, I think this has a chance to get stronger than what the models are showing. Will need to be watched for sure

[aspen]

I am not surprised at all at 70% development. The next 3-5 days, 95L will be moving in tandem with an anticyclone, which will keep decent upper level over it for potential development. Plus, 95L will be traversing over and near the very warm ssts just south of Cuba this weekend. This area features the warmest water in the North Atlantic basin currently. I actually am expecting this system to attain Tropical Storm status as early as Saturday evening near the western tip of Cuba.

Quickly getting itself together with an anticyclone on top and staying within the warmest waters of the basin for up to 4 days (depending on the track)...oh boy. Maybe we will get an intense Zeta or an Irene ‘99 analogue out of this after all.

[northjaxpro]

I am not surprised at all at 70% development. The next 3-5 days, 95L will be moving in tandem with an anticyclone, which will keep decent upper level over it for potential development. Plus, 95L will be traversing over and near the very warm ssts just south of Cuba this weekend. This area features the warmest water in the North Atlantic basin currently. I actually am expecting this system to attain Tropical Storm status as early as Saturday evening near the western tip of Cuba.

Quickly getting itself together with an anticyclone on top and staying within the warmest waters of the basin for up to 4 days (depending on the track)...oh boy. Maybe we will get an intense Zeta or an Irene ‘99 analogue out of this after all.

It is definitely a possibility.

[psyclone]

When forecastersare discussing weather, i I would appreciate it so much if they would specify the west coast or the east coast instead of simply saying South Florida.

??? south florida is a thin strip of mostly swamp. you have an increasing likelihood of a ts moving over or close to s florida and the keys on a northeasterly heading. western cuba has been a hot zone for TCs. a decent chance for a south florida impact here.

[Aric Dunn]

the 150mile radar range. 2 hours saved. a little clearer... center is very quickly consolidating and organizing with that convection right around Grand cayman.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it safe to assume that the quicker this organizes, the more north it could be drawn before the shortwave exits and ridge builds back?

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it safe to assume that the quicker this organizes, the more north it could be drawn before the shortwave exits and ridge builds back?

I think that's a reasonable assumption. I think there is a possible concern that we could end up with a strengthening TC off the North coast of Cuba in the Central Bahamas and ready to make a turn to the NW or WNW as the ridge builds in.

[blp]

LLC is not as well organized as it was last night. To me it is a sign that is reorganizing.

https://i.imgur.com/8AiBWbL.jpg

ASCAT-C just one hour later tells an entirely different story.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/765039770606370877/769257356193955920/LATEST.png?width=564&height=564

Well that explains the jump to 70%. Getting very interesting now.

[gatorcane]

Is coming together pretty quickly. Models playing catch-up as usual. Might see a center reformation further SE of where NHC has it.