ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

By far the deepest convection I’ve seen with PT9.

[DestinHurricane]

By far the deepest convection I’ve seen with PT9.

https://iili.io/dA8Xwl.gif

Martinique looks like its going to get some severe storms soon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm just not seeing this North component of the wnw movement. Of course, it is hard to track movement of a center that does not exist yet.

[aspen]

Recon is heading out around midnight, correct?

I’m gonna have a long night tonight.

[SFLcane]

With the new center relocated not much will be left if this crosses over DR. 00z guidance implies just that

[plasticup]

With the new center relocated not much will be left if this crosses over DR. 00z guidance implies just that

Hispaniola is always a wild card - doesn't take much of a shift to miss it altogether.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this thing is going into the Caribbean. It's moving at 25mph with center reformations happening all the time. It's a really large broad area. Those take a little while to get going.

[SapphireSea]

Shear analysis does not look good. Alot of this powerful convection could be related to high shear and convergence. The rapidly ascending towers and movement of the towers seems to be to indicate this. Normally that shear is related to the outflow of the storm, but the 35KT analysis existed even before the storm could enter to influence that area. I would say it's entering a strong shear zone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

[CM2]

Here's a slower shot of the convection!

[Aric Dunn]

Center appears even Farther south.. per new ASCAT .. under that MLC>

now things get interesting.

[Do_For_Love]

By far the deepest convection I’ve seen with PT9.

No doubt. The storms over those islands look pretty wicked right now.

[Aric Dunn]

yeppers...

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288290424382205952

[tanguy97]

Actually a windgust of 105 KLM/ in Martinique and very strong thunderstorms

[Aric Dunn]

00z models are going to be interesting... these ASCAT passes should make it in them. with it that far south..

[STRiZZY]

00z models are going to be interesting... these ASCAT passes should make it in them. with it that far south..

Did recon collect data for the 00z suite tonight?

[HurricaneFrances04]

It looks like the GFS already lines up pretty well with that ASCAT pass

[SFLcane]

00z models are going to be interesting... these ASCAT passes should make it in them. with it that far south..

More south=Land interaction

We shall see what though NHC intensity might be toned down further at 11.

[chaser1]

With the new center relocated not much will be left if this crosses over DR. 00z guidance implies just that

Hispaniola is always a wild card - doesn't take much of a shift to miss it altogether.

Correct, with a possible new center forming down near 12.5N & 58.5W, there'll be plenty of time to start speculating where this beast might go. Boy, will it be nuts if that occurs. Talk about changing things up.

[CM2]

00z models are going to be interesting... these ASCAT passes should make it in them. with it that far south..

Did recon collect data for the 00z suite tonight?

That is in a few hours, that recon data will not be used for the 00z run, only for the 06z run. So early bird get's the worm and the good data.