ATL: ISAIAS - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1001 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:21 pm

18Z ICON looks similar to the Euro and is another shift south west.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1002 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:24 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Classic. NAM no longer develops this into a hurricane after the run prior to this showed it shoving the east cost.

Red Card on you for looking at the NAM :D
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1003 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:26 pm

Image

12z HWRF PARA
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1004 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/gZrds85.gif

12z HWRF PARA


Puts it right in Lake O in 126 hours
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
CM2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:41 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1005 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:42 pm

According to the 18z GFS, the southern blob is already looking to be more developed than in previous runs.
3 likes   
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1006 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:44 pm

Image
18z GFS Trend... Past 6 runs of GFS, each run is faster than previous...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1007 Postby ronjon » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:46 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/gZrds85.gif

12z HWRF PARA


Puts it right in Lake O in 126 hours


LOL - NHC must really like this run. Lake O is its 5-day position.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/210839.shtml?cone#contents
0 likes   
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2115
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1008 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:54 pm

GFS is slightly right (north) of the prior run so far, not sure it means much though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
STRiZZY
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:01 pm
Location: Largo, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1009 Postby STRiZZY » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:56 pm

BobHarlem wrote:GFS is slightly right (north) of the prior run so far, not sure it means much though.


Depends.. a lot of the time 20-50mi won't make all that much difference. With this storm it will because even 20-50mi north will spare it will more significant land interaction.
0 likes   
Top
Freeport-tx3738
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:27 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1010 Postby Freeport-tx3738 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:58 pm

Hey. I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge the next storm cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.

Think I will make it there before it gets too bad?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1011 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:59 pm

Happy hour GFS doesn't fail to disappoint. 84 hours and the vort looks more North and more consolidated.
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1012 Postby tallywx » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:02 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Happy hour GFS doesn't fail to disappoint. 84 hours and the vort looks more North and more consolidated.


Looks like Hispanola itself forces consolidation around the northeast portion. Not implausible given the large circulation envelope.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1013 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:04 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Happy hour GFS doesn't fail to disappoint. 84 hours and the vort looks more North and more consolidated.


Euro vs the world at this point, I think that's the last one that dissipates it unless the 18z changes that.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1014 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:05 pm

102 hours...Pump the brakes, here comes the slowdown. The last thing the NW Bahamas needs is any kind of system creeping over them.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1015 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:09 pm

If that trough over the Tennessee Valley doesn't advance this thing might get hung up in the NW Bahamas for a bit. I'm not convinced on a quick up and out solution here.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
ColdFusion
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
Location: Addison, TX

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1016 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:11 pm

This guy literally put real spaghetti on a map, and another person urges caution. LOL

Image
11 likes   
Top
Evan_Wilson
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue May 26, 2020 1:09 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1017 Postby Evan_Wilson » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:12 pm

Personally I’m not buying the Eastern Gulf Coast track, at least if this system can get its act together.
1 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1018 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:14 pm

GFS decides to flip from a weak FL landfall to visiting North Carolina instead. Fun times, right?

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1019 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:21 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:GFS decides to flip from a weak FL landfall to visiting North Carolina instead. Fun times, right?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/b65a50327b187c8b9e5c79e3e3fec2c2.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


That’s why 18z GFS is always the happy hour run :lol:
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5303
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1020 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:27 pm

Levi said maybe if or when it consolidates north of Puerto Rico on Thursday we can waste our storm2k bandwidth with a forecast for Florida/southeast.

Storm warnings are up for Leewards and Puerto Rico but they will survive.
Just bring in the Lawn furniture and cockatiels..
5 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests