ATL: LAURA - Models

[Steve]

Hello. Icon with the 1-2. Haha, but I'm not buying the tracks yet.

I also agree with Derek Ort 100%. That's been a topic for a few days. I'll give them their due in this whole setup so far. But there's no possible way the ICON-CMC is the New World Order of models. That isn't even possible, is it?

[eastcoastFL]

Here's something relatively new on the 00z GFS. Maybe a center reformation NE of Puerto Rico??? Saw something like this on last nights 00z run as well and it went on to form and take it up the west coast of FL.

Correction - last nights 00z developed and went through the Keys and into the middle of the GOM.

5 Run trend starting on 00z last night.

https://i.imgur.com/x6m5Fk9.gif

Gfs still doesn’t even show formation until 54 hours.. I see it north of DR at 78hrs but I don’t think it’s the center reforming. Someone mentioned last night it just loses the numbers and the L when it gets too close to land. But I rally have no clue. We see a low go into PR and reappear north of DR

[DestinHurricane]

Simply initializes wrong. Models won't be trustworthy until they initialize right. Best we can do now is nowcast and listen to NHC. NHC thinks conditions will be favorable once close to the Bahamas.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS shows it skirting the north coast of Cuba heading WNW maybe??




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[eastcoastFL]

Simply initializes wrong. Models won't be trustworthy until they initialize right. Best we can do now is nowcast and listen to NHC. NHC thinks conditions will be favorable once close to the Bahamas.

Yup. Now I’ll be grabbing my iPad and heading straight to the 5am advisory when my feet hit the floor in the am. I’m curious how the models pan out once they initialize properly and get recon data.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is that you Laura???

[stormlover2013]

126hours gfs is on board in line with icon

[Kingarabian]

Well no one posted the UKMET but it's a deepening TS at hour 144, 992mb in the GOM.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.9N 64.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 60 18.9N 64.9W 1009 31
0000UTC 23.08.2020 72 19.4N 68.0W 1007 30
1200UTC 23.08.2020 84 20.6N 72.0W 1005 35
0000UTC 24.08.2020 96 21.2N 76.0W 1002 35
1200UTC 24.08.2020 108 22.5N 79.9W 1000 44
0000UTC 25.08.2020 120 23.9N 83.4W 998 41
1200UTC 25.08.2020 132 25.6N 86.0W 996 47
0000UTC 26.08.2020 144 27.7N 88.2W 992 47

[Steve]

126hours gfs is on board in line with icon

haha pwnd

[ConvergenceZone]

Am I reading the model right? GFS now has a Cat 1 hurricane landfalling in the Northern Gulf? or maybe a Cat 2 even?

[stormlover2013]

Ridge is really strong in the gfs!!! Maybe a Andrew/Rita type path

[Evil Jeremy]

That UKMET is into Cuba before getting to the mid-Gulf.

[Steve]

Am I reading the model right? GFS now has a Cat 1 hurricane landfalling in the Northern Gulf? or maybe a Cat 2 even?

Low 970's is Cat 2 all day. It's still a little south of the state it looks like. So maybe going in between Cocodrie and Morgan City?

[ConvergenceZone]

Well well GFS welcome aboard! It took ya long enough! lol........ Ya hear that Euro? You're alllll alone........

[DestinHurricane]

Will a stronger storm go more north in this situation? If so then this GFS probably takes it too far south digging into cuba.

[stormlover2013]

With that ridge that gfs is showing this is putting it over a week out a lot of time to watch

[Steve]

CMC is out to 90 hours

[tiger_deF]

I wonder if in the future we will have models that will be able to handle and interpret center reformation and multiple vortices consolidating into one

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC 00z nearly in lock step with 12z

[Steve]

Canadian was decent on genesis, but the track?