ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Christiana]

Could anybody tell me if this is a significant surge and flooding potential because of the angle of approach? I would think coming in at this angle from the East that NOLA Mobile and S. Mississippi could face some serious issues with water. I believe Katrina was so bad surgewise because of her similar angle of approach.

I imagine Sally won’t be as strong as Katrina so would surge still be a threat if Sally comes in as a low end CAT 2?

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

This angle of approach plus the forecast slow forward motion could create significant surge in my area of Pass Christian. (Waterfront Timber Ridge) I am watching this with a lot of anxiety right now. 9 feet of surge plus potential high tide gives me about 3-4 feet of water under my house. Katrina took it all, not even thinking along those lines but the PTSD is real.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304957088150499328

[MidnightRain]

As some models shift E, and euro W, and the cone of probability still looking like a ball, the collective puckering from along the entire gulf coast will be off the scale with this one.

Didn’t see any significant shifts East today, the bullseye is definitely shaping up to be Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi.

Apologies for the over generalization; just saying there seems to be more disagreement for something less 3 days from landfall than usual, and New Orleans isn’t alone in the puckering! I agree with you (and the NHC) on the general projected landfall. 50 miles makes an massive difference in surge impact, particularly west of the MS river.

Oh definitely, between NO and Pensacola the slightest deviation in track makes a big difference depending on where you are.

[Blown Away]

I’ve been in Key West all day, holy smokes not sure how much rainfall, but the streets all underwater... Gulf coast gonna get a soaker...

[Sanibel]

Really kickin outside like a TS...

[boca]

I’ve been in Key West all day, holy smokes not sure how much rainfall, but the streets all underwater... Gulf coast gonna get a soaker...

I drove down for the day to Islamorada and it was bad there too, I’m back now home now.

[Jr0d]

I am probably 6" away from having my laundry room flooded. By far the most flooding I have seen at my house.

The rain just let up so the water will go down...those down hill from us will not be so lucky.

[ronjon]

I’ve been in Key West all day, holy smokes not sure how much rainfall, but the streets all underwater... Gulf coast gonna get a soaker...

4.79 inches officially at Key West International Airport so far.

[ronjon]

Really kickin outside like a TS...

Sign of strengthening perhaps.

[eastcoastFL]

Could anybody tell me if this is a significant surge and flooding potential because of the angle of approach? I would think coming in at this angle from the East that NOLA Mobile and S. Mississippi could face some serious issues with water. I believe Katrina was so bad surgewise because of her similar angle of approach.

I imagine Sally won’t be as strong as Katrina so would surge still be a threat if Sally comes in as a low end CAT 2?

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

This angle of approach plus the forecast slow forward motion could create significant surge in my area of Pass Christian. (Waterfront Timber Ridge) I am watching this with a lot of anxiety right now. 9 feet of surge plus potential high tide gives me about 3-4 feet of water under my house. Katrina took it all, not even thinking along those lines but the PTSD is real.

I absolutely understand being anxious about that. Plus if you look at the Euro it’s calling for 2+ feet of rain. Posters tonight in the keys are dealing with some heavy flooding without the surge so it could be an extreme event for flooding when it reaches the north GOM.

[johngaltfla]

Really kickin outside like a TS...

Really weird that you're not much more than an hour south of me, and the N/NE quadrants where I am are cloudy, windy, and no rain. If she starts to pull away as projected tomorrow, conditions are extremely favorable in the Eastern GoM for some intensification.

[sweetpea]

Here is a livecam from Duval street.

https://liveduvalstreet.com/

[Frank P]

Could anybody tell me if this is a significant surge and flooding potential because of the angle of approach? I would think coming in at this angle from the East that NOLA Mobile and S. Mississippi could face some serious issues with water. I believe Katrina was so bad surgewise because of her similar angle of approach.

I imagine Sally won’t be as strong as Katrina so would surge still be a threat if Sally comes in as a low end CAT 2?

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

Thanks for the detailed info! Let’s hope sally runs into some inhibiting factors as she makes her approach and doesn’t intensify or expand. That’s a good point I didn’t consider the wind field. Now I recall that when Katrina weakened her wind field blew up. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sally was stronger than forecasted that seems to be pretty normal for early advisories on storms entering the gulf. So that 6-9 feet of surge could easily turn to 9-12 ft and neither scenario is good especially in our current climate. Are you still on the gulf coast?

Yeah, I plan to ride it Out at my beach house. It is 28 feet above sea level and built wind fortified. Even a 12 foot surge would not cover both lanes of HWY 90 in front of the yard. My yard is 18 feet above sea level.. but there are many low lying areas along the MS coast and a 12 foot storm surge could be fatal for some... I am preparing for a strong Cat 2, I always prepare one classification up!

[ConvergenceZone]

Here is a livecam from Duval street.

https://liveduvalstreet.com/

wow, some good lightning too with the street flooding.

[ConvergenceZone]

I’ve been in Key West all day, holy smokes not sure how much rainfall, but the streets all underwater... Gulf coast gonna get a soaker...

You getting lots of lightning there? Saw lots of lightning on the cam...

[Frank P]

Could anybody tell me if this is a significant surge and flooding potential because of the angle of approach? I would think coming in at this angle from the East that NOLA Mobile and S. Mississippi could face some serious issues with water. I believe Katrina was so bad surgewise because of her similar angle of approach.

I imagine Sally won’t be as strong as Katrina so would surge still be a threat if Sally comes in as a low end CAT 2?

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

This angle of approach plus the forecast slow forward motion could create significant surge in my area of Pass Christian. (Waterfront Timber Ridge) I am watching this with a lot of anxiety right now. 9 feet of surge plus potential high tide gives me about 3-4 feet of water under my house. Katrina took it all, not even thinking along those lines but the PTSD is real.

You make good points. I lost everything form K too. The tidal range is about 1.8 feet, so your looking at 11 feet possible... all I can reference is what I got from Elena in 85, and she had 120 mph winds and the surge was only 8-9 feet and didn’t even top the HWY 90 sea wall... but my locations is one of the highest on the MS coast beach front areas at 18 feet.. so I feel your pain over in the pass... sorry about my insensitively for past K survivors. Best of luck with this system, and you will be closer to the eye wall than me if it comes in at the MS LA line.. god bless

[Blown Away]

I’ve been in Key West all day, holy smokes not sure how much rainfall, but the streets all underwater... Gulf coast gonna get a soaker...

You getting lots of lightning there? Saw lots of lightning on the cam...

Past hour, tons of lightning strikes, almost none all day. Tonight/now different, may be signs of strengthening?

[eastcoastFL]

Those extended northern rain bands are really dumping some serious rain on us here in Martin county now. Must’ve been a few break away storms. It’s been pouring for a good 30 mins now.

[Jr0d]

Pretty much storm conditions at Sand Key lighthouse off key West. 34kts, gusts to 40. The south wind kicked in.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1

[Keldeo1997]

Is this right?. Last 3 LLC fixes have been at the same location

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