ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Pretty much storm conditions at Sand Key lighthouse off West. 34kts, gusts to 40. The south wind kicked in.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1

Yeah for sure biggest winds so far today... Some real bad flooding in lower areas... We lost power for a while...

[eastcoastFL]

Here is a livecam from Duval street.

https://liveduvalstreet.com/

wow, some good lightning too with the street flooding.

People are still out and about sloshing through the flooded streets shopping.

[eastcoastFL]

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

Thanks for the detailed info! Let’s hope sally runs into some inhibiting factors as she makes her approach and doesn’t intensify or expand. That’s a good point I didn’t consider the wind field. Now I recall that when Katrina weakened her wind field blew up. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sally was stronger than forecasted that seems to be pretty normal for early advisories on storms entering the gulf. So that 6-9 feet of surge could easily turn to 9-12 ft and neither scenario is good especially in our current climate. Are you still on the gulf coast?

Yeah, I plan to ride it Out at my beach house. It is 28 feet above sea level and built wind fortified. Even a 12 foot surge would not cover both lanes of HWY 90 in front of the yard. My yard is 18 feet above sea level.. but there are many low lying areas along the MS coast and a 12 foot storm surge could be fatal for some... I am preparing for a strong Cat 2, I always prepare one classification up!

Sounds like you should be fine as long as you’re stocked up, have a generator and don’t need to go anywhere for a few days. It’ll be hard to get around for a few days with all the other areas flooded.

[eastcoastFL]

Is this right?. Last 3 LLC fixes have been at the same location

00Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091300.png

01Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091301.png

02Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091302.png

Looks about right on radar

[edu2703]

New cone

[wx98]

11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 12
Location: 26.3°N 82.9°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[Keldeo1997]

Is this right?. Last 3 LLC fixes have been at the same location

00Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091300.png

01Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091301.png

02Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091302.png

Looks about right on radar


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Well if that's right that ain't good because the LLC and MLC might be stacking

[us89]

First cone I've been in since...Michael, I think.

Even if the winds miss to the west as expected, it looks like we'll get a whole lot of rain on Thursday.

[Frank P]

Thanks for the detailed info! Let’s hope sally runs into some inhibiting factors as she makes her approach and doesn’t intensify or expand. That’s a good point I didn’t consider the wind field. Now I recall that when Katrina weakened her wind field blew up. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sally was stronger than forecasted that seems to be pretty normal for early advisories on storms entering the gulf. So that 6-9 feet of surge could easily turn to 9-12 ft and neither scenario is good especially in our current climate. Are you still on the gulf coast?

Yeah, I plan to ride it Out at my beach house. It is 28 feet above sea level and built wind fortified. Even a 12 foot surge would not cover both lanes of HWY 90 in front of the yard. My yard is 18 feet above sea level.. but there are many low lying areas along the MS coast and a 12 foot storm surge could be fatal for some... I am preparing for a strong Cat 2, I always prepare one classification up!

Sounds like you should be fine as long as you’re stocked up, have a generator and don’t need to go anywhere for a few days. It’ll be hard to get around for a few days with all the other areas flooded.

Thanks, have a generator and plenty of supplies, will leave the area after clean up and roads accessible. For me, after the storm is always worse than the storm itself...

[nutkin517]

Sure looks like it will sit in the same area for a while. That kind of rain is scary, even absent wind and thunder/lightning. I remember sitting through Harvey and Imelda. That was the loudest rain I had ever heard in my entire life and it just kept coming down harder and harder for hours and hours. It was definitely the most scared I have ever been. Harvey didn't even flood my yard, luckily, but Imelda was right at my back door.

[Frank P]

Could anybody tell me if this is a significant surge and flooding potential because of the angle of approach? I would think coming in at this angle from the East that NOLA Mobile and S. Mississippi could face some serious issues with water. I believe Katrina was so bad surgewise because of her similar angle of approach.

I imagine Sally won’t be as strong as Katrina so would surge still be a threat if Sally comes in as a low end CAT 2?

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

This angle of approach plus the forecast slow forward motion could create significant surge in my area of Pass Christian. (Waterfront Timber Ridge) I am watching this with a lot of anxiety right now. 9 feet of surge plus potential high tide gives me about 3-4 feet of water under my house. Katrina took it all, not even thinking along those lines but the PTSD is real.

Well per the latest NHC forecast track it should come in at low tide so that could save you about 1.88 feet of surge!

[toad strangler]

About to get a decent squall on Sally's north eastern fringe in Port Saint Lucie West.

[PandaCitrus]

I'm not sure it matters when it actually comes ashore since it will be slow moving there will be multiple surge tide cycles

Sally’s Surge is forecasted to be 6-9 feet.. This is no where near Katrina’s surge, and the angle does make a big difference, as does the size of the wind field, and forward motion.. Elena in 85 had winds near 120 mph at my house on the beach in Biloxi, surge was about 8-9 feet... it came in at a very steep angle, probably around 40 degrees best guess.. Sally looks overall like about 45-50 degrees angle in approach so that will help reduce the surge. This applies for the Biloxi area only. That angle of approach is not good for SELA however!

This angle of approach plus the forecast slow forward motion could create significant surge in my area of Pass Christian. (Waterfront Timber Ridge) I am watching this with a lot of anxiety right now. 9 feet of surge plus potential high tide gives me about 3-4 feet of water under my house. Katrina took it all, not even thinking along those lines but the PTSD is real.

Well per the latest NHC forecast track it should come in at low tide so that could save you about 1.88 feet of surge!

[Nimbus]

Is this right?. Last 3 LLC fixes have been at the same location

00Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091300.png

01Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091301.png

02Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_19L_2020091302.png

Looks about right on radar


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Well if that's right that ain't good because the LLC and MLC might be stacking

Levi Cowan walked through the 18Z models on his Tidbits, both GFS and HWRF slow the system down to about 5 mph or less before landfall which is the problem because it means extended rains measured in feet and storm surge through high tide cycles. The stacking is happening later than I thought this moring due to the 10 to 15 mph shear. 18Z HWRF doesn't stack the system till tomorrow afternoon resulting in RI before landfall, GFS doesn't stack the system till just before landfall as a weaker Cat1.

[Jr0d]

Pretty much storm conditions at Sand Key lighthouse off West. 34kts, gusts to 40. The south wind kicked in.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sanf1

Yeah for sure biggest winds so far today... Some real bad flooding in lower areas... We lost power for a while...

My neighbors have a flooded den. I am in mid town near the high school. Car wakes on Flagler and Bertha are not helping.

[stormhunter7]

Look like center is exposed again? Clearly see the mid level shear on the northwest to north still coming down across Tampa. When that subsides tomorrow morning.... This could ramp up... Will know how warm the eastern GOM has returned to or not.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Javlin]

I have removed a few posts.

If you cannot be respectful to other members, don't bother posting at all. Check your attitude at the door.

Thank You Sir I saw that post and went WTH get a grip!Not the first go round.

[crimi481]

bands in Charlotte harbor heading my way in Englewood. Takes me back to old Charlie

[Sanibel]

That heavy band really brought the winds down with it...

[toad strangler]

bands in Charlotte harbor heading my way in Englewood. Takes me back to old Charlie

"Charley" but I don't blame you with that spelling because I've never known a person who spelled it CHARLEY

Here is a link to the REAL Charlie lol .... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charlie_(1951)