ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Surface winds slightly higher than flight-level (700mb)
Indicates strong downdraft - likely to immediately intensify.

[GCANE]

Current land interaction shows some stable air entraining into the core.
However, TPW is very high over the Yucatan.
Solar heating of the land will likely destabilize the air this afternoon and we could see a good intensification before sunset tonight.

[HurryKane]

I am about sick of this mess. Might even leave my inflatable Halloween decorations out and video them whipping around in the wind. Kiss my grits, Ma Nature.



*I realize that my location has been astoundingly lucky this year

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Recon indicates its over the water
996mb extrap
54 knt SFMR
AF300 on the runway

Looks like we're missing some data points, including an area to the NW and north of the center. Not sure if it's over water yet, but I would say it's not.

[GCANE]

Surprisingly GFS has the anticyclone pegged this time.
I have a little more trust with it now.
Looks like NOLA may take a direct hit.

[GCANE]

Recon indicates its over the water
996mb extrap
54 knt SFMR
AF300 on the runway

Looks like we're missing some data points, including an area to the NW and north of the center. Not sure if it's over water yet, but I would say it's not.

Using their radar, I think they can judge it pretty well as to where to fly thru.
Anyway, the surface obs looks like it is maybe just on the coast.

[GCANE]

On approach and appears to be no dry-air entrainment issues.
In fact, could be pulling some moisture out of the EPAC.

[NDG]

I was comparing Delta to the forecasted conditions for Zeta right before making landfall, it will have better conditions than what Delta had including moisture. Zeta will be tracking parallel to the shear so it wouldn't do much to it, Zeta will be picking up speed tomorrow afternoon so it will not feel the cooler coastal SSTs in time to weaken it much before making landfall. The reason why I think it has a good chance of making landfall as a Cat 2.
Just my amateur opinion.

[xironman]

Tracking left will keep it away from that cold pool that always seems to be at the northern tip of the Yucatan.

[Kazmit]

I got to bed and it's over water... I wake up and it's still over water, this time in the gulf.

[supercane4867]

Zeta's impact on CONUS could be much greater than expected especially in terms of winds. If the center comes onshore just west of NOLA it will hurt. 06z HWRF has an intensifying 95kt hurricane at landfall.

[xironman]

On approach and appears to be no dry-air entrainment issues.
In fact, could be pulling some moisture out of the EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/UP1buGV.png

That mid/upper level storm over west Texas will keep the continental dry air at bay.

[stormlover2013]

Cat 1, good rains some descent winds, shouldn’t be to bad but we shall see

[aspen]

I’m starting to get a little worried about what Zeta will do in the Gulf, since the UL environment will be exceptionally favorable, dry air will be kept at bay, the reliable HWRF shows quick recovery, it’ll be sucking moisture from the EPac, and SSTs are high enough to support a major. A Cat3 in the Gulf this time of year should be highly unlikely, especially after so many storms have been sucking the Gulf’s OHC dry...but things do seem to be that favorable. The only limiting factors are Zeta’s core rebuilding and time.

[Steve]

Warnings are going off on my phone now. I hit them like a snooze button but I think they were storm surge warning and hurricane warning.

[tiger_deF]

I have to say even though Zeta's core doesn't look great, outflow and banding has absolutely taken off overnight. The pocket of convection seems to have doubled in size

[northjaxpro]

Zeta's impact on CONUS could be much greater than expected especially in terms of winds. If the center comes onshore just west of NOLA it will hurt. 06z HWRF has an intensifying 95kt hurricane at landfall.

Yeah, this is quite a concern for The Big Easy. HWRF brings this right at Cat 2 intensity upon approach to Southeast Louisiana. Zeta, if it comes a bit more west than anticipated, could really give the city and surrounding parishes quite a wallop.

[GCANE]

Latest thermal profile showing the warm core and cold pool slightly offset to the east.
A cold "finger" exists to the east of the warm core illustrating enhanced parcel trajectory.

[Ken711]

Is Delta moving N along at the same speed and at the same position as forecasted? Landfall time still as forecasted?

[LARanger]

Warnings are going off on my phone now. I hit them like a snooze button but I think they were storm surge warning and hurricane warning.

Hurricane warning was all I got, but yeah, that'll wake you right the bleep up on a vacation day.

I'm thankful both for that and to those who've noted 'prepping fatigue' on here. Now that the problem I was also feeling has been named, like Rumplestiltskin it’s shattered and so I'm about to start battening hatches with gusto for the umpteenth time this year.