ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1021 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:52 pm

I've never seen anything like this in the Atlantic since I started tracking hurricanes. Eta's outflow pattern is near perfection.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1022 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:53 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1023 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:53 pm

1:00 PM EST Mon Nov 2
Location: 14.7°N 82.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1024 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:53 pm

O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1025 Postby Kazmit » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:54 pm

Can’t really blame the NHC for only putting it at 120mph with no recon out there.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1026 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:55 pm

It's gonna have a CDG ring by the time when recon arrives lol

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1027 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:55 pm

You guys already know that the Nhc is the most conservative branch of NOAA
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1028 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:55 pm

Weather Dude wrote:O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now

The problem is, there’s no direct intensity estimates, and they had to put out SOMETHING. Odds are they’ll upgrade it to a Cat4 by 4pm, with or without recon.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1029 Postby Chemmers » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:55 pm

Think there will be a big jump as the record gets there think it will jump from a cat 3 to a cat 5
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1030 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:57 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:You guys already know that the Nhc is the most conservative branch of NOAA

They know what they’re doing, but tbh, they had to put out SOMETHING.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1031 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:00 pm

Chemmers wrote:Think there will be a big jump as the record gets there think it will jump from a cat 3 to a cat 5


I feel that there will definitely be an upgrade in intensity, based on ETA's appearance on satellite imagery....but I won't speculate on intensity
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1032 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:02 pm

So is the recon scheduled for this afternoon canceled or delayed? Will we be waiting until tonight for recon? I'm hearing conflicting messages
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1033 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:05 pm

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1034 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:07 pm

Weather Dude wrote:O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now


Based on what? As the season progresses we go from accusations the NHC is over predicting intensity to accusations the NHC is under predicting. It's getting old. How about everyone give reasoning for their prediction and move on rather than imply that somehow the NHC's prediction is worse than yours?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1035 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:10 pm

tolakram wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now


Based on what? As the season progresses we go from accusations the NHC is over predicting intensity to accusations the NHC is under predicting. It's getting old. How about everyone give reasoning for their prediction and move on rather than imply that somehow the NHC's prediction is worse than yours?


Dvorak for starters. If you are going to have tools like this in place in the absence of recon at least use them. But at the end of the day they are the experts and it is their call.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1036 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:10 pm

looks to be executing a loop similar to what the HWRF has been showing in that location
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1037 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:11 pm

Let's face it. Predicting the intensity of RI'ing hurricanes without Recon is very difficult and often a fool's game. Hopefully we'll have a Recon plan by the 21Z advisory time though.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1038 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:12 pm

Bet this gets upgraded to Cat.4 at 4pm. I’d be shocked if it didn’t.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1039 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:12 pm

There has never, in the satellite era, been three or more storms that became major hurricanes after October 1 in a season - until 2020. (2016 was close but Matthew became a major on September 30).
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1040 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:12 pm

Bulletin Archive
TXNT22 KNES 021741
TCSNTL

A. 29L (ETA)

B. 02/1730Z

C. 14.8N

D. 81.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT
OF 6.5. 6-HR AVERAGING YIELDED DT OF 6.0. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS 5.0. FT
IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE
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