ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Are people really making definitive statements about a system that still hasn't developed a full LLC? It reformed tonight, it can reform again.

[TheStormExpert]

Are people really making definitive statements about a system that still hasn't developed a full LLC? It reformed tonight, it can reform again.

Moving at 25mph will allow it not to develop, no chance right now!

[STRiZZY]

I'm seeing way too many "It's over for.." tonight. Let's not forget that the models were sold on Dorian passing over Hispaniola only for the center reformation to happen and it skirted Puerto Rico. Until there is a solid core formed and the chances for center relocations is low, everyone from Texas to New Newfoundland should be watching this.

The center did adjust further south per NHC and that will more then likely place a call with the shredder. NHC expects this to become a TS tonight or Wednesday but based on satellite and lastest ASCAT we are definitely not close.

That's implying that with a unforeseen center relocated south of anticipated, that the storm will still track the same heading as before just further south. The possibility of a new "angle of attack" exists. For all we know the steering could end up being more W than WNW/NW. Unlikely to a certain degree but plausible.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Rains and thunderstorms have eased up here in Barbados for about two hours thus far hoping for some more showers and thunderstorms later on nothing too serious tho

[Evil Jeremy]

We should all be thankful that this storm was quite literally too large and moving too quickly to get it's act together. Doesn't mean it won't figure itself out soon. And no one, not even the NHC as they make clear in their 5pm Discussion, has a good inkling of where this will be in 5 days. I think the NHC having to create a full advisory package for these PTCs is a little much. If the NHC doesn't have enough data to make a full 5 day forecast they can be confident in for something that doesn't even have a closed core, forcing that product out anyway may do more harm than good. Anyway, tonight's discussion should be a fun one.

[tiger_deF]

Sometimes while watching systems like 92L it feels like cyclogenesis in a traditional tropical sense doesn't seem to be able to occur at every point; rather there are periods of time where convection is fired in key areas, the circulation moves to a location it needs to, or other times when things are "looking up" for the system. In those moments, said invest either has to finish it off, or it doesn't, and sometimes we've seen both happen even when conditions wouldn't necessarily suggest it.

For example it feels like there have been ~4 points where it really looked like 92L it was finally getting ready for that last step, but then went right back down. I personally think it will develop but I think 92L not developing is on the table.

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive really!?

That’s the last word I’d be using to describe PTC-9’s appearance tonight.

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1288302971722358784

[AutoPenalti]

Impressive really!?

That’s the last word I’d be using to describe PTC-9’s appearance tonight.

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1288302971722358784

I feel like you’re trolling at this point.

[CM2]

Rains and thunderstorms have eased up here in Barbados for about two hours thus far hoping for some more showers and thunderstorms later on nothing too serious tho

So feeling any tropical storm force winds? supposedly the LLC is crossing just to your east if not over you.

[STRiZZY]

Sometimes while watching systems like 92L it feels like cyclogenesis in a traditional tropical sense doesn't seem to be able to occur at every point; rather there are periods of time where convection is fired in key areas, the circulation moves to a location it needs to, or other times when things are "looking up" for the system. In those moments, said invest either has to finish it off, or it doesn't, and sometimes we've seen both happen even when conditions wouldn't necessarily suggest it.

For example it feels like there have been ~4 points where it really looked like 92L it was finally getting ready for that last step, but then went right back down. I personally think it will develop but I think 92L not developing is on the table.

NHC has it at 90% in 48hrs, that would be nuts if it didn't.

[Visioen]

I'm not a pro met but I think it's raining on Martinique.

[Ubuntwo]

Impressive really!?

That’s the last word I’d be using to describe PTC-9’s appearance tonight.

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1288302971722358784

It's got intense convection that's more concentrated than ever before with this system. In that sense it is impressive in every way but organization.

[floridasun78]

Did recon collect data for the 00z suite tonight?

That is in a few hours, that recon data will not be used for the 00z run, only for the 06z run. So early bird get's the worm and the good data.

Well, another question is how much of this afternoon's recon data made it into the 18z suite, as opposed to being held for 00z.

on wed their sending g-iv to get data in models B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive really!?

That’s the last word I’d be using to describe PTC-9’s appearance tonight.

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1288302971722358784

I feel like you’re trolling at this point.

You really think this thing looks impressive?

And I’m not trolling, I’m stating the facts.

[JtSmarts]

The friend/foe feature can be your best friend in times like these! As for PTC 9, not expecting much this evening but tomorrow may be a different story, we all should know the drill by now.

[artist]

yeppers...

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200728_23_35_flag.png

It means down the middle long ways through Hispaniola, remain shallow, and likely interaction with Cuba. Game over as a far as a potent wind event. Catastrophic rain event, possible for those islands. This slight SW hitch tonight likely a big game changer for PR, Bahamas, and CONUS. Hispaniola not so much. JMHO!

Are you forgetting the one that thread its way through? Hurricane Isaac

[STRiZZY]

I'm not a pro met but I think it's raining on Martinique.

https://i.imgur.com/dckwiij.jpg

I think you're right

 https://twitter.com/Jeremsoso/status/1288297793531121664



 https://twitter.com/MaximoSPQR/status/1288283164037849091



 https://twitter.com/RudyMeteo/status/1288264716096352256

[artist]

Impressive really!?

That’s the last word I’d be using to describe PTC-9’s appearance tonight.

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1288302971722358784

I feel like you’re trolling at this point.

You really think this thing looks impressive?

And I’m not trolling, I’m stating the facts.

You’re stating an opinion, not fact.

[Bhuggs]

Can the the Florida is all clear or the storm will never form posters head on back to the 2020 indicators thread. Really clogging up the actual relevant discussions about the storm

[HurricaneFrances04]

lol the intensity guidance is the long term actually went UP

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart