ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Wind has picked up here. low clouds are whipping by in the night sky. we're getting the fun, fringe weather from a formative tropical system in my region. it feels like a storm is brewing..

[Nuno]

About to get a decent squall on Sally's north eastern fringe in Port Saint Lucie West.

We're getting one here in Miami now. About as heavy as it was last night

[mpic]

Hoping this isn't out of line, but wish people giving reports on current weather would mention where they are. Back to discussion.

[crimi481]

Englewood Fl - winds really picking uo

[psyclone]

22pmh gusting to 32 at Sarasota outside of the rain. Well below ts range but a stout breeze and a good sized windfield. it's a sapling with potential.

[crimi481]

Coming right at my home.

[PavelGaborik10]

Doesn't appear to be ramping up quite, still a decent amount of time but given the time of year and the location I'm relieved to see she hasn't managed to strengthen even a slight amount yet.

[crimi481]

Is it supposed to go over Englewood? lol. Drifting nnw?

[hurricanehunter69]

only inhibiting factor I can find is it's not centered under the anticyclone. Sally is actually getting sheared a tad bit by the periphery of the anticyclone. Nevertheless, as soon as it can ( get the engine turned on) It will have plenty of opportunity to RI. I'd say 45mph of RI is not out of the question thru Sunday. Very warm SST's, Very moist environment, high cape and I've included a link showing how low the shear will be. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ConvergenceZone]

really disorganized now, but should hit 50 mph by either late Sunday or Monday Morning....

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR is showing winds as high as 54 kt at the surface, although that's probably unlikely.

[ClarCari]

really disorganized now, but should hit 50 mph by either late Sunday or Monday Morning....

You expect it to increase only 5mph thru the whole day??

[ConvergenceZone]

really disorganized now, but should hit 50 mph by either late Sunday or Monday Morning....

You expect it to increase only 5mph thru the whole day??

The center is really having difficulty consolidating. Until that happens, it's not going to do much. And it's not going to happen over the next hour or 2

[ClarCari]

really disorganized now, but should hit 50 mph by either late Sunday or Monday Morning....

You expect it to increase only 5mph thru the whole day??

The center is really having difficulty consolidating. Until that happens, it's not going to do much. And it's not going to happen over the next hour or 2

Respectfully disagree since it’s off land and moving away from that pocket of sheer. There’s 0% chance it won’t increase 5mph over the next 12 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

You expect it to increase only 5mph thru the whole day??

The center is really having difficulty consolidating. Until that happens, it's not going to do much. And it's not going to happen over the next hour or 2

Respectfully disagree since it’s off land and moving away from that pocket of sheer. There’s 0% chance it won’t increase 5mph over the next 12 hours.

I think most of the increases are going to happen on Monday, not today. They even said that on the Weather...

[ClarCari]

The center is really having difficulty consolidating. Until that happens, it's not going to do much. And it's not going to happen over the next hour or 2

Respectfully disagree since it’s off land and moving away from that pocket of sheer. There’s 0% chance it won’t increase 5mph over the next 12 hours.

I think most of the increases are going to happen on Monday, not today. They even said that on the Weather...

Well I don’t exactly expect it to blow up thru Sunday (but you can’t rule that out either) but a mere 5mph increase over a whole day isn’t all that’s gonna happen. Convection will start returning to the center over the next 4-6 hours I’d imagine.
I’d go along with you more if you felt it most likely won’t reach hurricane status by tomorrow (but again, can’t rule that out completely either).

Edit: Pressure is still dropping as we speak. 1002-1001mb found by recon.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Respectfully disagree since it’s off land and moving away from that pocket of sheer. There’s 0% chance it won’t increase 5mph over the next 12 hours.

I think most of the increases are going to happen on Monday, not today. They even said that on the Weather...

Well I don’t exactly expect to blow up thru Sunday (but you can’t rule that out either) but a mere 5mph increase over a whole day isn’t all that’s gonna happen.
I’d go along with you more if you felt it most likely won’t reach hurricane status by tomorrow (but again, can’t rule that out completely either).

it increased 10mph today while passing FL.

0 chance this only increases 5mph tomorrow

[CrazyC83]

Latest data suggests an intensity of at least 45 kt, possibly 50 kt.

[Ubuntwo]

really disorganized now, but should hit 50 mph by either late Sunday or Monday Morning....

You expect it to increase only 5mph thru the whole day??

The center is really having difficulty consolidating. Until that happens, it's not going to do much. And it's not going to happen over the next hour or 2

I think this recon pass has already proven that wrong

[ClarCari]

Woooooaaaaa Sally could very much be a hurricane by tonight. And if this strengthening trend continues it could mean RI to a major is definitely NOT out of the question.