ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

I have a vacation home on the west side of Cozumel, watching this very closely.

Insured, I hope...

[tolakram]

saved loop

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1313507432207806464?s=21

Excuse me? They do what now?

[CrazyC83]

It's weird that we have a cat 4 storm with a perfect CDO but an eye that is so small and cloud filled. It's almost scarier looking because it's a sign that it is nowhere near leveling off in intensity. Once it clears out it's going to look insane.

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

[tolakram]

Lack of a clear eye just means intensification is still going on in my opinion. Really witnessing some history here, I wonder just how strong it will get?

[galvestontx]

I have a vacation home on the west side of Cozumel, watching this very closely.

Insured, I hope...

Yeah of course... 2020 sucks

[supercane4867]

Updraft inside the core is so strong that the dropsonde was being lifted before hitting ocean...wow

[plasticup]

It's weird that we have a cat 4 storm with a perfect CDO but an eye that is so small and cloud filled. It's almost scarier looking because it's a sign that it is nowhere near leveling off in intensity. Once it clears out it's going to look insane.

Once the eye comes open, category 5 seems quite likely.

NHC forecast was only up to 120 knts in the next 12 hours, but we are already 15 knts ahead of schedule. So I guess I agree with you. History in the making.

[GCANE]

You ain't seen nothing yet.
With the big drop in pressure, Delta is just beginning to suck all the moisture out of the GoM and EPAC.
This is the start of when the big-ass feeder bands kick in.
The acceleration of high TPW air from Gamma is like a turbocharger. Very unique setup.

https://i.imgur.com/ugN51Lw.png

Except you are also increasing shear from that outflow, is that not how it works?

My blue annotation lines are very low-level flow.
You really need to look at how this sits in the ARWB to get a feel for shear.

[GCANE]

Updraft inside the core is so strong that the dropsonde was being lifted before hitting ocean...wow

Incredible.
They'll have to poke some holes in the chutes.
This is really spinning now on IR.

[plasticup]

Updraft inside the core is so strong that the dropsonde was being lifted before hitting ocean...wow

Incredible.
They'll have to poke some holes in the chutes.
This is really spinning now on IR.

CDO expanding some as well. Still a small storm though.

[aspen]

Getting ready for one more pass, SW to NE.

[plasticup]

Getting ready for one more pass, SW to NE.

What is that, 5 passes?

[us89]

I wonder if we'll get a special advisory once the current recon mission ends, or maybe instead of the normal intermediate advisory at 2pm. The short-term intensity forecast is going to have to be bumped up quite a bit.

[Blinhart]

My question is when it starts ingesting the remnants of Gamma, will it expand the cloud field and the wind field or will it still remain a small compact storm?

[AutoPenalti]

You ain't seen nothing yet.
With the big drop in pressure, Delta is just beginning to suck all the moisture out of the GoM and EPAC.
This is the start of when the big-ass feeder bands kick in.
The acceleration of high TPW air from Gamma is like a turbocharger. Very unique setup.

https://i.imgur.com/ugN51Lw.png

Except you are also increasing shear from that outflow, is that not how it works?

My blue annotation lines are very low-level flow.
You really need to look at how this sits in the ARWB to get a feel for shear.

https://i.imgur.com/TFWasbZ.png

Is this at low-level flow? Because Jesus Christ.

[ElectricStorm]

When's the next recon after the current mission heading out?

[GCANE]

Rain rates still in the 70's mm/hr.
Another notch higher or two very likely.
Oh wait, that would take it to Cat 6.

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

Some -90C towers popping on Southern eyewall.

[GCANE]

Except you are also increasing shear from that outflow, is that not how it works?

My blue annotation lines are very low-level flow.
You really need to look at how this sits in the ARWB to get a feel for shear.

https://i.imgur.com/TFWasbZ.png

Is this at low-level flow? Because Jesus Christ.

Yup, take a gander at MIMIC-TPW

Earthnullschool shows it real well.