ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Zeta don't look too bad after spending all night over land. Storm should start reintensifying shortly. Excellent upper level environment, warm SST.....Zeta should ramp up quickly. Could be approaching 100mph as the hurricane nears the La coast. Time to batten down the hatches today.....MGC

[tolakram]

Visible loop: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[Christiana]

Well darn. Looks like this one might smack us head on. Time to get real I guess. Hurricane prep fatigue? I have it, but if I can mitigate some damage & clean up now will get busy. Was also woken up w/ Hurr & SS Warnings this morn, I do wonder if the surge for the MGC will be higher than the 4-6ft projected. I am 7" above sea level & waterfront at my home in the Pass, could be a close call. Coffee first. Take care everybody, NOLA & MGC, time for us to do our thang.

[Shell Mound]

Zeta don't look too bad after spending all night over land. Storm should start reintensifying shortly. Excellent upper level environment, warm SST.....Zeta should ramp up quickly. Could be approaching 100mph as the hurricane nears the La coast. Time to batten down the hatches today.....MGC

Another worrisome sign is that the circulation of Zeta has broadened significantly over the Yucatán Peninsula. Both the HMON and the HWRF suggest that Zeta will develop a larger inner core as it reorganises over the Gulf of Mexico. Combined with the broad circulation, this could increase the risk of a damaging storm surge, given the likelihood that the shear, being parallel to the track, will likely fail to significantly impact the fast-moving Zeta. If anything, cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf Coast are likely to be the only real limiting factor relative to potential intensity. Depending on how quickly it reorganises, Zeta could certainly approach major-hurricane status before reaching the cooler SSTs near the coast. In this instance, the angle of approach relative to the shear might even enhance outflow, as we saw with Michael in 2018.

[GCANE]

Whoa!
6000 CAPE near the CoC.
This puppy will blow up.

[SconnieCane]

Whoa!
6000 CAPE near the CoC.
This puppy will blow up.

https://i.imgur.com/OxXaOuO.gif

Interesting, before this forum I didn't realize CAPE had an influence on tropical cyclones. I thought of it exclusively as a metric for land-based severe convection and that all of a TC's energy was derived from the water.

[skyline385]

That's some good banding it got going on

[aspen]

Recon finds that the CoC has just moved offshore, and has a pressure of roughly 988-990 mbar.

[Chemmers]

it has that looks off RI soon unfortunately

[Iceresistance]

Zeta is a large system for Late October

[Iceresistance]

Look closer at the center of Zeta, does it have an eye feature?

[TallyTracker]

Zeta is a large system for Late October

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/28L.ZETA/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg

The increased size of Zeta is concerning. It will generate a larger surge as well as being more resistant to shear and dry air. Hopefully it will slow intensification but that is not always the case.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Right now they are calling for winds 50-60 with higher gusts here in Mobile west of I-65. Any east movement at all would probably bump that up a tad. Just like so many areas . . . Sally weakened and damaged so many trees here, and with piles of debris still all over town it doesn't make for a good situation at all.

[sgastorm]

A spot ob from the AF hurricane hunter had this as additional remarks:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

RADAR FIX PSBL CENTER 21-DEG 15-MIN N 89-DEG 15-MIN W FAIR RADAR PRESENTATION, MET ACCURACY 8-NM
SFC WINDS NOT VISIBLE

[Javlin]

Zeta is a large system for Late October

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/28L.ZETA/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg

. Hopefully it will slow intensification but that is not always the case.

I was about to post something to that effect it might inhibit some strengthening.I am not to worried ATTM about this one I remember Nate from 2017 fast mover it was over and done with quickly it was moving 20mph this one may be faster.Nate was a small storm but still I have seen thunderstorms with more punch than that one minus the surge we shall see regardless the trees will not have a long thrashing.

[underthwx]

As we all know, intensity forecasts can be difficult, some good advice I read from NWS New Orleans, is to prepare for 1 category higher than forecast, in the event there are changes in the forecast of Zeta, or any cyclone event...

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1321089498227314689

[jconsor]

I don't believe Nate is a good analog. Zeta is likely to pack a much more severe punch than Nate.

Nate was never really able to tighten up because of its *consistently high forward speed* all the way from Yucatan to N. Gulf Coast, along with interaction with a surface trough to its NW that limited convergence. In the case of Zeta, its acceleration close to landfall will likely limit/prevent weakening that might otherwise occur due to increased shear and cooler shelf waters near the coast.

Zeta is a large system for Late October

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/28L.ZETA/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg

. Hopefully it will slow intensification but that is not always the case.

I was about to post something to that effect it might inhibit some strengthening.I am not to worried ATTM about this one I remember Nate from 2017 fast mover it was over and done with quickly it was moving 20mph this one may be faster.Nate was a small storm but still I have seen thunderstorms with more punch than that one minus the surge we shall see regardless the trees will not have a long thrashing.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1321092205390548992

[Iceresistance]

I just noticed that Zeta has an outer influence & an inner core, do you think that this feature will make Zeta a strong hurricane?