ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now

Based on what? As the season progresses we go from accusations the NHC is over predicting intensity to accusations the NHC is under predicting. It's getting old. How about everyone give reasoning for their prediction and move on rather than imply that somehow the NHC's prediction is worse than yours?

Sorry. Will refrain. I understand it's tough to estimate intensity without recon. I just know that most storms with a CMG ring and some CDG in there as well with clearing pinhole eye are stronger than a Cat 3. But I understand it's hard to know for sure without recon, especially since intensity estimates struggle with pinhole eyes.

[GCANE]

An approximate 5-mile wide tornado

[Highteeld]

Gilbert vibes... been a while since a T8 Atlantic system anyhow

[NotoSans]

SAB's Dvorak looks fine. Without recon, I would go with 120kt because (a) storms usually intensified faster than what 6-hr average indicates and (b) eye temperature may be slightly undersampled due to pinhole eye.

[Hurricaneman]

O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now

Based on what? As the season progresses we go from accusations the NHC is over predicting intensity to accusations the NHC is under predicting. It's getting old. How about everyone give reasoning for their prediction and move on rather than imply that somehow the NHC's prediction is worse than yours?

The thing is they can adjust up or down depending on what the 230 recon finds but satellite data shows cat 3 and maybe as high as 130mph so thats what we have to go by until recon arrives or a surface ob is shown

[AutoPenalti]

O come on NHC! No way this isn't at least a mid cat 4 right now

Based on what? As the season progresses we go from accusations the NHC is over predicting intensity to accusations the NHC is under predicting. It's getting old. How about everyone give reasoning for their prediction and move on rather than imply that somehow the NHC's prediction is worse than yours?

Dvorak for starters. If you are going to have tools like this in place in the absence of recon at least use them. But at the end of the day they are the experts and it is their call.

Never use DVORAK for rapidly intensifying pinhole's like Eta.

[GCANE]

Structure illustrated well by rain rate

[NotoSans]

Based on what? As the season progresses we go from accusations the NHC is over predicting intensity to accusations the NHC is under predicting. It's getting old. How about everyone give reasoning for their prediction and move on rather than imply that somehow the NHC's prediction is worse than yours?

Dvorak for starters. If you are going to have tools like this in place in the absence of recon at least use them. But at the end of the day they are the experts and it is their call.

Never use DVORAK for rapidly intensifying pinhole's like Eta.

But without recon Dvorak is the only tool we have. Objective aids like AMSU and SMAP are better but they are not frequently updated.

[supercane4867]

Still a lot of room for improvement left for the eye. I hope recon gets there before ERC kicks in.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if we can get a good ASCAT pass before recon arrives late afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

It looks to be moving almost due south in the last couple frames. Already starting to stall out perhaps?

[CyclonicFury]

Let's see if we can get a good ASCAT pass before recon arrives late afternoon.

ASCAT won't be very helpful for a storm this intense.

[Iceresistance]

Is recon expected to be there this afternoon?

[Iceresistance]

Let's see if we can get a good ASCAT pass before recon arrives late afternoon.

ASCAT won't be very helpful for a storm this intense.

ASCAT direct hit

[AutoPenalti]

It looks to be moving almost due south in the last couple frames. Already starting to stall out perhaps?

South motion was expected. It's little wobbles within the eye.

[us89]

Let's see if we can get a good ASCAT pass before recon arrives late afternoon.

ASCAT won't be very helpful for a storm this intense.

Or one this small, either. For all the reasons Dvorak isn't great for strong systems like this with pinhole eyes, ASCAT is even worse.

[ClarCari]

Next Recon leaves in a little over an hour!! EST. 1:45PM CDT.

Fingers crossed!!

[Cunxi Huang]

Won't be very helpful either way. ASCAT resolution is LOW + not good for any storm > 65 kt in general.

Let's see if we can get a good ASCAT pass before recon arrives late afternoon.

ASCAT won't be very helpful for a storm this intense.

ASCAT direct hit
https://cyclonicwx.com/data/ascat/ascat_29L_barb_202011021629.png
https://cyclonicwx.com/data/ascat/ascat_29L_speed_202011021629.png

[Iceresistance]

Won't be very helpful either way. ASCAT resolution is LOW + not good for any storm > 65 kt in general.

ASCAT won't be very helpful for a storm this intense.

ASCAT direct hit
https://cyclonicwx.com/data/ascat/ascat_29L_barb_202011021629.png
https://cyclonicwx.com/data/ascat/ascat_29L_speed_202011021629.png

True, but it helps with the size of the storm.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye becoming obscured again on IR due to all that deep convection. Trying to wrap that pink around, what a monster

EDIT: And as soon as I post that the eye becomes clearer again